Liberty Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 On days like this I always wonder if it's Mr. Market acting randomly or if info is leaking about an acquisition. These things are hard to keep secret forever, especially the way that Chad likes to do them (when you have everything buttoned up from the start, you reduce risk, but you also let in more people on the potential deal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/11/stabilizing-pulp-prices-boosts-fortress-paper/ Seems like an analyst upgraded them to 'strong buy'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/11/stabilizing-pulp-prices-boosts-fortress-paper/ Seems like an analyst upgraded them to 'strong buy'. I'm always surprised by how big an impact these reports have, and how many people just follow analysts blindly. They say "jump" and people go "how high?". Oh well, I guess it means more opportunities for independent thinkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FFHWatcher Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 On days like this I always wonder if it's Mr. Market acting randomly or if info is leaking about an acquisition. These things are hard to keep secret forever, especially the way that Chad likes to do them (when you have everything buttoned up from the start, you reduce risk, but you also let in more people on the potential deal). How is it that an acquisition would immediately add to the current market value of a stock? It may end be highly accretive like Thurso hopefully becomes but they bought Thurso almost 2 years ago (March 2010) and it still hasn't added a dollar of revenue to the coffers, just expenses and risk (so far). Also, when Thurso was announced, FTP was trading at about $15-16, it quickly moved up to about $20. and then in the next month or so, it moved up to $26., which is where it was this week (maybe even earlier today!!)...almost 2 years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECCO Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 "are optimistic the paper manufacturer can improve its performance" Another proof that it's better to make your own research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 How is it that an acquisition would immediately add to the current market value of a stock? It may end be highly accretive like Thurso hopefully becomes but they bought Thurso almost 2 years ago (March 2010) and it still hasn't added a dollar of revenue to the coffers, just expenses and risk (so far). Also, when Thurso was announced, FTP was trading at about $15-16, it quickly moved up to about $20. and then in the next month or so, it moved up to $26., which is where it was this week (maybe even earlier today!!)...almost 2 years later. There's a big difference between the share price and the business's earning power, IV, and the value of the assets if they were sold. Management has shown with Thurso that they can execute - which wasn't a given since there's been no new entrant to the DP industry in like 30-40 years, and only a handful of mills were ever converted to DP - so I expect that the announcement of a new acquisition would have a bigger impact than the first one. Plus they can use cashflow from Thurso to finance conversion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 While I do think there is obvious reasons to believe an acquisition is coming, I think the recent fall and subsequent plateauing are more correlated to the cotton markets. I mentioned this before Christmas but just didn't find the time to put my thoughts together. In 2010 the cotton markets were affected by increased demand and a tight supply. Cotton prices rose to north of $2.20/pound in the spring of 2011 during a time when farmers are looking to plant new crops. The high prices attracted farmers to plant more acreage and the result is supply in the 2011-2012 market will exceed demand due to record production of 124M bales. Cotton prices fell from their spring highs back to a more normalized level. With talks of slowing Chinese demand and movement away from the risk trades due to Europe in recent months... the purchasers of cotton have sat on their hands and not replenished their inventories as they don't wont to own a falling commodity. That can only happen for so long though ... The overall movement in cotton seems to be exacerbated by speculators in the market due to hedge funds, commodity ETF etc ... The highs have been higher and lows have been lower. I recently read an article that suggests 61% of cotton futures trading is currently from speculators. http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/business/s_770293.html Recently, Asian governments stepped in and started buying for sovereign inventories at predetermined prices - a way to protect the small farmer. It would appear that this has stabilized cotton prices and over the last few trading sessions (from mid Dec). I follow the IPATH DJ-AIG Cotton ETN as a proxy for cotton trends. "BAL". But here is the question: Are cotton prices likely to stay low over the long term or increase? I think this article from Barrons does a nice job of articulating this: http://online.barrons.com/article/commodities_corner.html If you look at the current landscape both India and China are driving forces in setting cotton prices. Most analysts that I've read suggest that in the not to distant future India's demand for cotton will exceed supply and they will begin competing in the marketplace with China for imports. Food inflation seems to be driving farmers to move from cotton crops to take advantage of higher priced crops in the food channel. (Increased demand + Lower supply). The following article does a good job of explaining these dynamics: http://www.topcommodities.net/2011/07/india-and-china-cotton-production-and.html So, it appears to my eye that we are suffering from a hangover. We got loaded in spring and now we are paying for. But, it would appear to me that the correction has stabilized somewhat. (See BAL.ny). On the short term the lower cotton prices likely mean less of a need for substitutes like Rayon and therefore lower Rayon prices due to falling demand. But remember this happened at a time when Rayon supply was being increased. A double whammy. As cotton prices rise again in the future more demand will be created for substitutes like Rayon and I believe the trend will reverse. These are very hard markets to fully understand and I'm certainly not the expert on Cotton markets. But it would appear to me it is having an effect on the DP producers.... Good news - I think the low prices and excess supply of cotton in the 2011-2012 year will likely push farmers to other crops this coming spring reversing what occurred last year. Hopefully the 2012-2013 season rebalances the market. Any combination of increasing Chinese buying or unfavourable weather reports (drought) should assist. Stabilization in Europe would likely bring back the risk trade too. FTP Chart vs BAL: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=ftp&time=8&startdata-ipsquote-timestamp=1%2F4%2F1999&enddata-ipsquote-timestamp=1%2F11%2F2012&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=bal&comp=bal&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&x=49&y=17&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FFHWatcher Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 IV - interesting insight. Thank you. Liberty - if a second acquisition has a bigger impact than the first, i guess my only comment has been that the first acquisition has only added risk to the stock, no cash flow yet. I hear what you're saying regarding a businesses earnings power but the reality is, that tap is just starting to flow (i hope) almost two years later and no one truely knows how big the tap is going to be. Often there is a big difference between projections and reality and right now we just have projections. As far as an acquisition goes, if a company can simply buy an asset for $5M, sign a few contracts, convert a mill to DP over the next 2 years and instantly create shareholder value via future earnings power, why isn't there any competition for those assets? Why isn't Fibrek, Or even better Abitibi, or Mercer or Canfor buying up similar mills and converting them, instantly adding hundreds of millions of dollar for shareholders? To me, it just seems that simply doing a second acquisition and expecting somewhat immediate value creation is unlikely and unjust especially before the first one can really be called an official success. We are both thinking that FTP is worth more than it is currently trading at. I am eager to see how Thurso turns out in reality before I am willing to call this strategy a success but things are mostly on track except for DP pricing and it is hard to blame that on Chad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 FFHwatcher, I totally agree, this is definitely a company that if you get into, you have to look forward and have a certain amount of trust in management based on their track record and their way of looking at things. No doubt. But on the other hand, if the cash flow was already there, it wouldn't be selling at this price. But your skepticism based on "well, if it's that easy why don't others do it?" elicits a few things: 1) it isn't that easy. Only a few mills worldwide can be converted, few people know how (FTP hired a team that did a couple of the only handful of conversions ever), and even fewer are even looking because 2) this is a contrarian play. Few people are looking at the forestry sector, and most of those that are in it have shown over the years that their capital allocation skills aren't that great (otherwise they might not be in this mess). Basically, your question begs the larger question: Take any business doing something good anywhere and ask "why isn't the competition doing the same?" A lot of the time when you find out that they aren't, it's because it's not as easy as it first looks and requires intangibles like the ability to find value where others don't see it and to have a long-term strategic vision when others are only trying to get through the short-term and are thinking more about cutting costs than in investing for something that will pay off in 18-24 months. The world would be a very different place if everybody had those skills. I think the proof's in the pudding. No new entrants in DP for the past 3-4 decades, only a handful of conversions ever and most mills aren't the right kind to be converted, Asian mills are at the top of the cost curve, and many new DP announcements seem to be delayed or unraveling. Once we have a few quarters of Thurso running we'll be able to confirm the cash flow, but everything I've seen so far makes me think that it should be in the ballpark of what management is predicting (and even a lower, more conservative number, would still be pretty good). But we can't be sure until it happens, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Up about 18% in two days. Crazy volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Up about 18% in two days. Crazy volatility. Yes. That kind of move can be a real "dawg" killer. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It does seem like something is afoot. Those investors buying today seem willing to pay almost any price for the stock as evidenced by it being up on a very ugly day. One would think they must know something about the future since on a day like today, I would let the stock come to me ...but of course I am very rarely privy to any undistributed information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 It does seem like something is afoot. Those investors buying today seem willing to pay almost any price for the stock as evidenced by it being up on a very ugly day. One would think they must know something about the future since on a day like today, I would let the stock come to me ...but of course I am very rarely privy to any undestributed information. It does seem a little strange to me too when the only new public information that I could find was that analyst upgrade. Some of it could also be people who sold for tax loss reasons coming back in. But trying to explain short-term moves in share price is usually futile, so we'll just have to wait and see if anything is announced soon... btw, welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 fwiw, TBC stock behaves much like FTP this week, i.e. solid upward push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Fortress Paper Ltd Symbol C : FTP Shares Issued 14,300,086 Close 2012-01-13 C$ 31.87 Recent Sedar Documents View Original Document Fortress Paper raises mill production to 60% of target 2012-01-16 09:13 ET - News Release Mr. Chadwick Wasilenkoff reports FORTRESS PAPER UPDATES STATUS OF DISSOLVING PULP PRODUCTION Fortress Paper Ltd. has ramped up production of dissolving pulp at its Fortress specialty cellulose mill to approximately 60 per cent of final targeted capacity since it announced production of dissolving pulp had commenced on Dec. 5, 2011. The ramp-up of production continues substantially as planned, and the company expects meaningful improvements in the short term followed by smaller productivity gains as it approaches its targeted production capacity. The company's dissolving pulp is meeting customer specifications, and, after totalling inventory, customer shipments commenced in the final week of December. Chad Wasilenkoff, chief executive officer of Fortress Paper, commented: "We are extremely pleased with the speed at which the ramp-up of dissolving production is proceeding at our Fortress specialty cellulose mill, and are focused on achieving our planned production capacity as soon as possible. With the shipment of our first orders, we have demonstrated our ability to successfully produce dissolving pulp that meets the stringent specifications of our customers." We seek Safe Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 http://lechoabitibien.canoe.ca/webapp/sitepages/content.asp?contentid=222771&id=296&classif=En+manchettes Translated by Google: Domtar to sell LQS: Lawyers seek to agree GUY CHAMPOUX General - Posted January 17, 2012 at 19:42 In the summer of 2011, the sale of Domtar facilities on Quevillon Lebel slow to materialize. The Company Fortress Paper Vancouver still intends to produce rayon with older paper machines, but the legal quibbling ensure that nothing is settled. Lemoyne positive Mayor Lebel-sur-Quevillon, Gérald Lemoyne retains its poise when he talks about this issue, which he hopes an early conclusion. "At this time he n is unnecessary to worry as the file progresses. But we would like to advance it a little faster. No external intervention Last summer Prime Minister Jean Charest had mixed the record in order to clear the advance. However this time the chief magistrate does not believe that outside intervention is necessary. "We are at the stage of discussions between lawyers for both parties. They must agree on all terms of sale over the counter. But it takes time to decide where we will place the periods and commas in the process of drafting the contract. " sensitive points The Gordian knot is in talks around the issue of responsibility of each entity. "The parties have to First complete the record of the plant as such. She has been in operation for 40 years and has left its mark. " It seems to be difficult to break the deadlock on two subjects, despite the willingness of both parties to agree. "One thorny issue is the environmental liabilities . It's pretty complicated. The other issue is the subject of intense negotiations is the division of land owned by Domtar to add Gérald Lemoyne. Closed three years Domtar announced the permanent closure of its plant in Lebel-sur-Quevillon on 18 December 2008 citing poor market conditions. A labor dispute involving employees in the factory had endured since November 2005. At its peak the mill in Lebel-sur-Quevillon produced 300,000 tons of kraft pulp and employed 425 people. The mill had stopped production in 2006 and employed 140 workers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Interesting. I redid some basic valuation work today and I just can't find where I could be wrong. Anyone with a bear case? 22% of portfolio now and if we drop again I might add some, just scared of being baised now. Must add that I still have a very small portfolio and can take the concentration risk at this point. Not sure why anyone would sell now (see stockhouse..). In one year, FTP is probably worth anywhere between $55-90 imo if I just look at my basic math. Maybe I am not giving enough negative value to current macro risks, reliability of the contracts' counterparties, trend in DP, ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I believe the main risk is execution risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Agreed. But I think a lot of execution risk has already vanished. It's still one of the biggest risks but it was a lot higher 1 year ago and even 2 months ago. Seeing how they already reached 60% of targeted capacity and sent out the first shipment that met customer expectations, I think the biggest risks are gone. In that way I find it amazing that the stock traded at $60 in February, all on expectations that everything would go as planned. Now it trades at half that. Sure DP prices were much higher and the economic outlook was a bit better, but where was the MoS? I wouldn't have jumped on the stock at $30 in 2010 but now the story is completely different. Mr Market's madness... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 I second what Tom said. Mr. Market got too greedy about this stock in the past, but now it's too afraid, and that's an opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FFHWatcher Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I vote for EBITDA. Even if execution is very good, if EBITDA doesn't show up as Chad has projected (ie. costs are way higher than projected and/or realized price is way lower or a combo of the two), than the stock really can't justify going much higher. The co-gen facility seems to be a large or the largest factor in driving the overall net costs down. At this point, we can really just sit back and wait for the team to do their job and hope that the macro events and DP spot prices stabilize and recover a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 I vote for EBITDA. Even if execution is very good, if EBITDA doesn't show up as Chad has projected (ie. costs are way higher than projected and/or realized price is way lower or a combo of the two), than the stock really can't justify going much higher. The co-gen facility seems to be a large or the largest factor in driving the overall net costs down. At this point, we can really just sit back and wait for the team to do their job and hope that the macro events and DP spot prices stabilize and recover a bit. I think that there are two scenarios there, though. 1) Cash doesn't show up for temporary reasons, but the underlying secular trend in cotton/DP supply-demand is still there or 2) the trend changes for some reason or other and doesn't reappear any time soon. #2 would be a big disappointment, but #1 could still lead to a very good outcome if one is patient, and the temporary low could allow FTP to deploy more capital at bargain prices and position itself even better for the up-cycle, so it might not be wasted time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 http://webcasts.welcome2theshow.com/whistler2012 Audio recording of a panel with Chad. (I haven't listened to it yet, but it should be interesting) Free reg. required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Ok, had a chance to listen. Some highlights for me: -Not even started tweaking process and they are already hitting 96-97% alpha DP, highest quality in the world. -Ramp up to 80%+ should be very quick, few weeks, it's the last few percents that could take longer. -High quality DP means they'll want to get certified for high-grade specialty DP that can sell for a few hundred $ more /ton. -Chinese DP mills = high cost producers. It just doesn't sound like a very good place to produce DP because of the types of mills and of fiber supply. -Their collared contracts with the chinese are set to "prevailing market prices" and not spot prices, so if their DP is higher quality, they'll get the ~$100/ton extra that it is worth on the market, not the lower spot price for average alpha DP. -Been working on 5-6 acquisitions simultaneously for 2 years, saying that some are very advanced, mentions one where papers have been shuffled for 18 months and made mention again of picking up a billion dollars asset for $1 (LSQ?). -Building relationships with speciality DP buyers (pharmaceuticals, electronics, etc) for later transition. -Very promising words on Landquart, seems like 2012 will be a good year with full order books. Two more upgrades planned for Dresden over the next two annual shutdowns. -Loved how he talked about the capital structure and worries about dilution. Overall, two thumbs up for strategic vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Great find Liberty. Thanks! Listening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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