jjsto Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yeah, great find. Just to add a little commentary to Liberty's: -It was very interesting how control over the input wood seems to be an important component in achieving the highest grade specialty pulp. This should give them an advantage over other mills forced to buy their inputs on the spot market. -Is it just me, or does producing the first batch of product after making the dp conversion, and reaching 97% alpha in the first couple of weeks seem kind of amazing? I mean he actually said the pulp they were producing was too high a quality and they were going to tone it down a bit. Probably the only mill in the world with that "problem." -Given the higher quality they are producing, it made me feel a lot better in terms of being able to hold their hedges. I also liked how he talked about their counterparties in terms of "partners" rather than just some random mills. -I too like the part where he discussed capital structure and dilution. He seems very motivated not to dilute his percentage. I had sports on in the background and kind of missed the part where he was talking about being "blacked out"? Did that mean with the ongoing negotiations he is not able to purchase more shares for himself right now? (I dont want to re-download the whole thing just to find that part.) -On Landquart it certainly seemed like there is a light at the end of the tunnel with a full order book, and a reduction in the strengthening of the Swiss Franc. -When the other guest started talking about some of the problems they faced when they considered a dp conversion, and when Chad was talking about working on 5-6 acquisitions for 2+ years, it shed some additional light on why it is not so "easy" to run out and make these conversions. -I wish he would have talked a little more about Dresden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Thanks for posting. My favourite piece of irony... Mercer spent a few minutes talking about how cheap they bought some mills and yet ... Guess who Chad (sitting next to him) bought the original assets from in a fire sale. Delicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FFHWatcher Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Thanks for posting. My favourite piece of irony... Mercer spent a few minutes talking about how cheap they bought some mills and yet ... Guess who Chad (sitting next to him) bought the original assets from in a fire sale. Delicious. Come on, Fortress paid 15 times more for the Mercer assets than they paid for Thurso plus Fortress accepted the environmental/employment liabilities of the Mercer mills. You don't need to look up the absolute dollar amt, just accept that Mercer got way more money from FTP when they sold their mills to FTP. (long both) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 FTP got a good deal from Mercer only because they knew how they wanted to improve the assets and get a lot more cashflow out of them. If they had kept running them as Mercer did, it would have been a bad deal. It was win-win, but a bigger win for FTP, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Listened twice and must agree with the comments of jjsto and lib, really impressed with the progress. Also seems like chad has more reasonable expectations of the future now. Also curious what landqart will do this year. Seems unlikely it will lose more than Dresden wil earn. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 Updated presentation: http://www.fortresspaper.com/pdf/Fortress_Paper_Investor_Presentation_Aug_2011.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 http://www.euwid-paper.com/news/singlenews/archive/2012/january/Artikel/soedra-commences-dissolving-pulp-production-at-moerrum.html Södra commences dissolving pulp production at Mörrum 26 Jan 2012 − Pulp line no. 1 at Södra’s Mörrum plant in southern Sweden is back online and under full operation after a substantial rebuild. The pulp line is expected to churn out 170,000 tpy of dissolving pulp based on hardwood fibre. Södra is anticipating a strong market development for textile pulp as it is renewable and will replace oil-based and cotton fibres. Since the investment decision was made in 2010, the company has reorganized its markets for the new customers. The second pulp line in Mörrum produces 300,000 tpy of softwood pulp. Södra is also mulling over a second textile pulp line at one of the company’s mills. A definitive decision will be made in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatOfThePig Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The purchase of Lebel sur quevillion mill by Fortress will be announce january 31: http://communiques.gouv.qc.ca/gouvqc/communiques/GPQF/Janvier2012/30/c7629.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 The purchase of Lebel sur quevillion mill by Fortress will be announce january 31: http://communiques.gouv.qc.ca/gouvqc/communiques/GPQF/Janvier2012/30/c7629.html I was just about to post that. Should be great news unless Chad has relaxed his standards (which would surprise me). :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Isn't this a big clue for the market? Shouldn't they announce this after market close even if it doesn't explicitly say anything? I bought more a couple of days ago with profits from elsewhere. If this stock pops I'll have to sell some just out of risk control. Let's hope FTP stays down for a very long time. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Isn't this a big clue for the market? Shouldn't they announce this after market close even if it doesn't explicitly say anything? I bought more a couple of days ago with profits from elsewhere. If this stock pops I'll have to sell some just out of risk control. Let's hope FTP stays down for a very long time. :) Yeah, it's strange to announce this in the middle of the day like that. But considering the low volume, it looks like the big players haven't figured it out yet. Might not be on the types of newswires that are monitored by Bloomberg terminals or whatever.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I wonder if the "youth issue" is an important part of this? Perhaps FTP is doing some type of youth based community sponsorship within LSQ. Building up their image. Nevertheless, if in fact that is the case ... they would only be doing that for 1 reason. <IV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECCO Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 http://www.cfem.ca/articles/20120130113913/exclusivite_rnc_media_domtar_vendu.html Le 30 janvier 2012 - 11:39 | ghamel@rncmedia.ca RNC Media a appris en exclusivité la vente officielle de l'ancienne usine de pâtes Domtar de Lebel-sur-Quévillon. La compagnie Fortress Paper s'en porte acquéreur avec la participation financière du gouvernement du Québec. Le bâtiment, fermé définitivement par Domtar en novembre 2005 avait placé 700 travailleurs au chômage. Une catastrophe dans une municipalité mono-industrielle qui a conduit des centaines de citoyens au découragement et des centaines d'autres à déménager. Toutefois, selon nos sources, la relance de la municipalité serait assurée. Fortress Paper est un producteur de pâte cellulose servant à la fabrication de papier et de certains tissus synthétiques. L'entreprise, dont le siège social est situé à North Vancouver en Colombie-Britannique, possède trois usines. Une en Suisse et l'autre en Allemagne. Sa plus récente acquisition, le moulin à papier situé de la ville de Thurso ,près de Gatineau, a été payé 3 millions de dollars en mars 2010. La compagnie reconverti l'usine grâce à un investissement de 153 millions de dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Above article translated to English by google: On January 30, 2012 - 15:08 | ghamel@rncmedia.ca RNC Media has learned exclusively the official sale of the former Domtar pulp mill in Lebel-sur-Quevillon. Fortress Paper Company purchased it with the financial participation of the Government of Quebec. The building, by Domtar permanently closed in November 2005 had placed 700 unemployed workers. A disaster in a one-industry town that has led hundreds of people to despair and hundreds of others to move. However, according to our sources, the revival of the city would be assured. Fortress Paper is a producer of cellulose pulp for the manufacture of paper and some synthetic fabrics. The company, whose headquarters is located in North Vancouver, British Columbia, has three factories. One in Switzerland and one in Germany. His most recent acquisition, the paper mill located in the town of Thurso, near Gatineau, was paid $ 3 million in March 2010. The company converted the factory with an investment of $ 153 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 So I'm just thinking out loud here... I think that the sale from Domtar to FTP shows that FTP has a kind of moat when it comes to DP, and that's the expertise required to convert a mill and the relationships with buyers. It could be argued that with Thurso, Fraser looked at FTP's plans and thought "hmm, that probably won't work". But with LSQ, Domtar can look at Thurso and see what it's possible to do with the mill. Yet they'd rather sell it to FTP for (probably) peanuts than try to do what FTP is going to do. Why? Because this is a lot harder than it looks, and it's a good sign. FTP is the first new entrant in DP in like 30-40 years, and I don't think we'll see tons of them even if prices stay solid. We'll see more new plants from existing players and maybe a few others try their hand at conversions, but there definitely seems to be a barrier to entry that is higher than might seem at first glance. Deep expertise is hard to find. FTP has hired the team that did some of the only conversions ever (there's only been a handful), and we know that Chad has been thinking about the DP business at least for 5 years (that's a lot for a smart workaholic who doesn't sleep much - he said in the recent CIBC talk that he's studied dozens and dozens of plants around the world). He's also been to China a lot, has hired a Chinese business coach and learned the customs over there, made relationships, etc. It's not just any forestry manager who can wake up one morning and decide to do a DP conversion and end up with a working plant on time and on budget that is a low-cost producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 FTP is looking like a great long term hold and forget type stock. I own in my Roth and dont plan on selling for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Some french news reporting the sale ahead of the press conference: http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/economie/archives/2012/01/20120131-082602.html http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/abitibi/2012/01/30/003-relance-usine-domtar.shtml http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/affaires/actualite-economique/201201/30/01-4490917-plan-nord-lusine-de-lebel-sur-quevillon-renaiitra.php Stock up 11.32% right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Hindsight bias is à bitch. Yesterday seemed like an obvious buy but it is already a 30% position so i didnt as i have no spare cash.. ;o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Hindsight bias is à bitch. Yesterday seemed like an obvious buy but it is already a 30% position so i didnt as i have no spare cash.. ;o I bought a bunch yesterday :) Trading has just been halted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 me too. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/31/fortress-paper-surges-on-domtar-pulp-mill-relaunch/ Domtar announced the suspension of production at the facility in December 2008 following a 3-year labour conflict. The decision affected 700 workers. It has kept the mill in good shape since and has a large electricity co-generation facility in place that should produce 49 megawatts of energy, Mr. Kelertas said. That should allow Fortress to substantially lower its production costs and boost operating margins. The facility currently has 300,000 tonnes of annual pulp-making capacity to manufacture commodity fine paper. Fortress is expected to convert the mill to be able to produce high alpha viscose pulp for rayon-making. Financial assistance from the Quebec government is expected to help fund the conversion. 49MW of cogen already in place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsto Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I only bought a little yesterday :( I had some limit orders set this morning that didnt even come close to getting filled. Are the details of the deal available anywhere yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsto Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Official statement with the terms has been released: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fortress-paper-announces-acquisition-of-lebel-sur-quevillon-pulp-mill-assets-2012-01-31?reflink=MW_news_stmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 There will be a conference call after market close. Teleconference Date: Tuesday, January 31, 2012 Time: 1:30pm (PST) / 4:30pm (EST) Dial In Numbers: 604-681-8564 Vancouver 403-532-5601 Calgary or International 780-429-5820 Edmonton 3 416-623-0333 Toronto 613-212-0171 Ottawa 514-687-4017 Montreal Toll Free Dial In Number: 1-855-353-9183 from Canada and USA Participant Pass Code: _____ 98030 ______# Confirmation Number: _____ 764917 _____ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The LSQ Mill is planned to have an annual production capacity of approximately 236,000 air dried metric tonnes (ADMT) and is expected to be completed in late 2013. The LSQ Mill would significantly increase Fortress Paper's annual dissolving pulp production capacity to over 437,000 ADMT, initially targeting viscose fibre (rayon) products. Guys I'm doing some basic math here... If things work out as they are doing with Thurso... Lets just say there is some decent upside here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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