Liberty Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 I think it's possible for DP to slump for a short period, but very hard to imagine a few billion people in emerging markets not buying significantly more clothes going forward (probably the most affordable luxury). There's also a feedback loop: if cotton prices go down, farmers plant less of it and switch to other crops, so supply gets smaller for next season... Also, China has shown a wilingness to step in with massive stimulus, and they have a lot more dry powder than the west and more levers they can pull quickly (and according to the Economist, they're almost certainly under-reporting their current inflation, which creates problems, but not deflation). It will also help when US and EU come back, won't slump forvever. On top of this, specialty DP prices would probably drop less because supply will always be much smaller and long term safety of supply probably means even more there than with rayon producers. Just my 2 reminbis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colinwalt Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I agree overall with the last few posts regarding medium to long term pricing, what concerns me is more of a short-term issue given the debt and possible covenant issues should pricing slump in the near-term. I suppose, as was mentioned in an earlier post, capital could be raised via issuing more shares and if things got really desperate, Dresden could be sold. But if there were widespread deflation, Dresden would probably be impacted too, with sales potentially drying up as consumers retrenched in the face of deflation. On the other hand (assuming orders get approved), under such a scenario, Landqart could save the day as once the orders are in place I wouldn't think they would be cancelled - presumably these would be long term, on-going contracts. Just trying to figure out, given the debt, what would it take for shareholders to be wiped out and how likely such a scenario might be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Great post by BelowIV on De La Rue and Landqart here: http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=31092048&l=0&r=0&s=FTP&t=LIST It's fun to add more knowledge about these businesses almost daily. Keep it coming guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Great post by BelowIV on De La Rue and Landqart here: http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=31092048&l=0&r=0&s=FTP&t=LIST It's fun to add more knowledge about these businesses almost daily. Keep it coming guys! Found another news article thru SH. Sounds like some suspected wrongdoing? Can someone explains what happened between De La Rue and Landqart? Thx http://www.indianexpress.com/news/ministries-spar-over-currency-paper-deal/952154/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Down another $.80 to $19.20 today ... off volume of ~175K so far ... 3 big trades of ~50K each accounting for vast majority of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 Down another $.80 to $19.20 today ... off volume of ~175K so far ... 3 big trades of ~50K each accounting for vast majority of it I bet Chad wishes he wasn't blocked from buying FTP stock (he mentioned it in an interview -- he constantly has information about new deals, so he can't buy)... This price is truly crazy. But I have to stop being surprised by Mr. Market.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I was asked privately by another member the following question. I don't profess to have all the answers but I will share my response below as its a point of confusion for many. BTW. I presume you also post on Stockhouse? If so, do you have more colour r.e. 1300 tonnes of off-spec Indian currency paper? Did DLR have it lying around after their contract expired, and then passed/sold it to Landqart for them to use/sell in some manner ... but in so doing raised ire of Indian officials, who would get antsy with such material (even if off-spec) getting to yet-to-be-fully-cleared (and contracted) 3rd parties? And why would Landqart pick it up (and have DLR employees working with them). I didn't quite get all the nuance of this ... My Response: Yes, I'm the same person (belowiv). I don't post on that board much save for times when comments go way off the rails and I'm compelled to add my $.02 for whatever its worth. If you re-read the article a few times it starts to make more sense. The message is somewhat lost in translation, me thinks. I believe I'm on my 5th time, now. It appears to me that two ministries within the same government are arguing on the security clearance for Landquart. This isn't too surprising to me. They just got burned by DLR and given they do not have the technology within their own borders to print their own paper ... they're required to go back into the marketplace and import product from a new producers. Once bitten - Twice shy, I suppose. Here is the cliff notes: Sept 2011: It's reported that 1300 MT of paper not meeting specs is floating around in the ether - not able to be used by RBI. Oct 2011: Finance Ministry sends a letter to the RBI suggesting they have intelligence that the 1300 MT of DLR paper is being offloaded through Landquart. Landquart hired 7 ex-emplyees to oversee the process is the claim. Late 2011: Home Ministry reacts to this letter by putting Landquart's security clearance in abeyance. (setting it aside) May 9, 2012: Home Ministry writes to Finance Ministry saying the Central Intelligence have "not" confirmed the veracity of their claims. May 14, 2012: Finance Ministry responds saying that the Directorate of Currency was not involved in the security clearance process for Landquart. Subsequently: Ministry of Home Affairs clarifies that all security related approvals are within the domain of the Ministry of Home Affairs and suggests that the Department of Economic Affairs (I'm guessing the Ministry of Finance falls under this umbrella) has no say in the matter. I think this is what Chad was referring to when talking about "bureaucracy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Anyone attending the annual meeting June 7 in Vancouver? I intend to be there. If you have any suggestions for questions I might ask, post them here or send me a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motownsf Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Down another $.80 to $19.20 today ... off volume of ~175K so far ... 3 big trades of ~50K each accounting for vast majority of it I bet Chad wishes he wasn't blocked from buying FTP stock (he mentioned it in an interview -- he constantly has information about new deals, so he can't buy)... This price is truly crazy. But I have to stop being surprised by Mr. Market.. Bought some more today in several accounts. Is Chad really restricted from buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Down another $.80 to $19.20 today ... off volume of ~175K so far ... 3 big trades of ~50K each accounting for vast majority of it I bet Chad wishes he wasn't blocked from buying FTP stock (he mentioned it in an interview -- he constantly has information about new deals, so he can't buy)... This price is truly crazy. But I have to stop being surprised by Mr. Market.. Bought some more today in several accounts. Is Chad really restricted from buying? Yes, also from selling if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 bathtime, you should ask Chad to clarify what's going on at Landquart. What are these contracts, do they expect to loose money for the rest of the year, if the contracts expected don't work out, will they sell, or close? Actually, Landquart is the great unknown so far, so an update of the situation and the different possible scenarios would be great! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Jeff, I'll do my best to get clarification on Landquart scenarios. Thank you for your question. A disappointing aspect of the drop in the stock price is the convertible debentures for LSQ will be issued at a lower level. --- Fortress Paper has also signed a subscription agreement with a Quebec financial institution providing for the subscription of an unsecured convertible debenture of Fortress Paper in the aggregate principal amount of $25-million maturing in five years with an interest rate of 7 per cent per annum. The Quebec financial institution will have the option to convert its debenture, in whole or in part, into common shares of Fortress Paper at any time after closing of the APA at a conversion price equal to the volume-weighted average price of the common shares of the corporation on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the five trading days immediately preceding the closing of the APA plus a premium equal to 50 per cent of such trading price. The debenture will be redeemable, in whole or in part, at the option of Fortress Paper, from the second anniversary date of its issuance at par plus all accrued and unpaid interest, provided that the volume-weighted average trading price of the common shares of Fortress Paper on the TSX is not less than 125 per cent of the conversion price. The debenture financing is subject to various conditions, including the concurrent completion of the IQ financing, the closing of the APA and receipt of the requisite TSX approval. --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Just bought my FTP shares @ $19 today. Have been contemplating entering a position since before the Q1 earning announcement and a $25 stock price. I thought I have had more patience this time around, but of course the stock promptly drops another 50 cents. Anyways, thanks for the amazing research from everyone on this board. I think the catalysts for the stock will be Thurso operating as projected and, on a lesser extent, new contracts at Landqart. Hope we will get some clarity in the Q2 CC (probably Q3 or later for Landqart). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 Added 800 shares at 18.55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 In the last 3 months, the stock has fallen over 50%. Amazingly, the only hard deadline they have to meet this year is on the order of $11.8 million, which they can already meet with their $18 million sale of hydro assets and $10 million of cash on hand. Debt: $10 million in non-deferrable short-term debt and $1.8 million in capped penalties if Thurso's co-gen isn't online by the end of the year. Cash: $18 million from sale of hydro assets, $6 million of cash on the balance sheet and $4 million of cash drawn on the revolver after the quarter's end. Again, if Dresden cancels out Landqart for the next three quarters of "cash burn" then you really only have to deal with an additional $12 million of possible burn from Thurso assuming it continues the rate of burn from the previous quarter -- as opposed to continuing its ramp up of production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 25, 2012 Author Share Posted May 25, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-25/china-cotton-planting-may-fall-by-10-on-increasing-labor-costs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 do u guys mean FTP is running into some cash crunch issue? I have followed it closely these days but I thought their new DP will generate good cash flow when fully operated? how much time they need to fully ramp up? I remember they raise convert bond not long ago, where did the money go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colinwalt Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 They've spent about $157M on Thurso so far and have about another $55M to go and that's assuming there are no more surprises - they are currently going to be about (a massive!) $50M over-budget due to (if I remember correctly): - problems with some 2nd hand machinery they were hoping to get, which in the end turned out to not be available or not up to spec - so they had to shell out for new equipment. - An unexpected wild-cat strike - overly-optimistic ramp up forecasts at Thurso. Having said that, most of the remaining spend is for the co-gen facility - that could be deferred as the penalties for that are capped at $1.8M My concern is that additional delays and surprises could result in them violating some of their debt covenants.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thstcapital Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 In the last 3 months, the stock has fallen over 50%. Amazingly, the only hard deadline they have to meet this year is on the order of $11.8 million, which they can already meet with their $18 million sale of hydro assets and $10 million of cash on hand. Debt: $10 million in non-deferrable short-term debt and $1.8 million in capped penalties if Thurso's co-gen isn't online by the end of the year. Cash: $18 million from sale of hydro assets, $6 million of cash on the balance sheet and $4 million of cash drawn on the revolver after the quarter's end. Again, if Dresden cancels out Landqart for the next three quarters of "cash burn" then you really only have to deal with an additional $12 million of possible burn from Thurso assuming it continues the rate of burn from the previous quarter -- as opposed to continuing its ramp up of production. Share price decline is not shocking if you think about it. The entire paper sector seems to be down a decent amount in recent months. Many other cyclical names that I follow have also been hit pretty hard recently. But I also think that there are company specific issues here that the market has a right to be concerned about - mgmt missing expectations on a regular basis, cash burn, high debt and questionable liquidity. As someone who trades distressed, I think there's definitely risk here of equity getting layered (debt/pfd stock, etc) or getting diluted by a large-ish equity offering. Management would be crazy if they weren't looking to raise additional liquidity in some fashion given the volatility in the markets that probably doesn't go away in the next 12 months. I'm recently long this stock based on the sum-of-the-parts thesis that has been well articulated here on this thread. But without some significant positive developments in the coming quarters, wouldn't be surprised if this falls further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 their convert last traded at 97.5, not distressed at all I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 25, 2012 Author Share Posted May 25, 2012 Bought a few hundreds more. Guess we'll see if that was a good move in a couple years.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxthetrade Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Good news for you guys: "Cotton planting in China, the biggest producer and consumer, has dropped about 10 percent in major growing regions as labor costs increased, cutting profits, according to an industry association..." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-25/china-cotton-planting-may-fall-by-10-on-increasing-labor-costs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 There was a large trade today of ~150K shares at ~ $17.70 ... which got me to thinking who owns/buying the stock (and believes the story), and conversely who's selling (and has soured, or capitulated). From Morningstar.ca (which shows top 10 holdings) and SEDAR (which shows >10% holdings) the following #'s are provided, based on reportings from past 6mo: Chad Wasilinikoff 2390K -> Holds >10% Mawer 691K (as of Apr 30/12) -> reduced from >1M? IA Michael (ABC Funds) 800K (as of Apr 30/12) Invesco 1478K (as of Apr 30/12) -> Holds >10% FaithLife 352K (as of Mar 31/12) Scotia Private 188K (as of Mar 31/12) Fiera 321K (as of Mar 31/12) Standard Life 352K (as of Mar 31/12) Industrial Alliance 234K (as of Mar 31/12) Dimensional 111K (as of Feb 29/12) Manulife 226K (as of Feb 29/12) BMO Guardian 222K (as of Jan 31/12) Trimark 273K (as of Dec 31/11) GBC 208K (as of Mar 31/12)* *GBC is part of Pembroke, which did own 1360K shares as of Oct31/11. It looks like GBC sold half their position before Mar31/12, so presume that Pembroke's overall position reduced proportionately (or more) since October. Not factoring possible incremental Pembroke holdings, the total is ~7.8M shares (of 14.3M), or about 55% spread across 14 players. It'll be interesting to see if/how the mix changes, as over the past 7+ days there has now been about 1472K shares traded ... which is about 10% of the total outstanding. Of that amount there has been about 10 trades where >30K shares have traded, totaling ~500K+ shares. (If I had the tools, it would probably show the classic 80/20 distribution.) Anyway ... just some friday musings. I looked at both funds and institutions, and removed duplicates where funds are a subset of an institution's holdings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I'm curious to discover whether Hedge Funds are shorting heavily trying to drive a liquidity event. They knew the FTP was cuttting it close. If they drive down the stock on liquidity worries, dilution fears become more worrisome at the lower share price. Risky, given the catalysts to turn the boat are short term but its been done many times before. If such speculation proved correct - it would be nice to see those shares landing in the hands of long term stable shareholders .... :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 <IV: I was wondering similar, as would be good to have stuff land in stickier hands. Do you or others who know how to get such things (similar to Sparkie from M*A*S*H*), have access to FTP short position details/changes? BTW -> there was an earlier question about whether Chad has ability to buy/sell ... the answer was no, but it looks like there's an automated sell worked into his/others share payments. http://www.fortresspaper.com/images/pdfs/releases/NewsReleases_2010/NewsRelease_Dec10_2010.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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