triedtestedand Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Hi A Dhandho: Thx for the short #. It was even higher than I expected. Considering the most significant price action (and volume) has been in the past couple of days, can you repost the short # in a few days. I'm guessing there may a few days offset while trades clear. Unless of course we still have a problem with naked short selling. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Can you post the Bloomberg link to the short interest that you refer to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Can you post the Bloomberg link to the short interest that you refer to? Attached you find the screenshot from the Bloomberg terminal. Kind regards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 See attached. Spot VSF prices in China have bounced off a pretty low (and hopefully not another false) bottom. That said, at ~14,200yuan/mt yesterday, they are still only back to previous lows from mid-October (and prior to that from brief low reached in mid-June), so nothing to write home about. The short term trend is good, including both the rate of recovery, as well as fact that it's being done with fairly good volumes. We'll see if this keeps up. I'm guessing that, at Chinese industry aggregate level, VSF and DP producers actually start to break even from combined sense when prices reach 15Kyuan/mt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 3 good articles on the state of the current cotton markets. http://lubbockonline.com/agriculture/2013-01-13/howell-uncertain-china-policy-weighs-cotton-futures-sentiment#.UPRA2RQWLcs http://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/company-news/plexuscotton/newsdetails.aspx?news_id=119890 http://www.brecorder.com/cotton-a-textiles/185/1142519/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Hey all: Does anybody have access to any RBC material related to Paul Quinn downgrade today of FTP to market perform? Headlines indicate it based on slower ramp-up at Thurso, lower DP price forecast, higher costs ... but those are re-occuring themes, so wondering if there's something new (co-gen supposed to be going live soon, right???). Volume today was fairly high at 170K shares, with at least one block of ~70K ... nudged up ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 There was a poster on the stockhouse board talking about it but he didn't put a date on it so I can't tell if it is recent or from November. http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=32071776&l=0&r=0&s=ftp&t=LIST In either case, since there has been no new information out since November, this analyst is making his conclusion based on those Q3 results, whether the report was issued today or in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 yeah, one man's opinion. Not much new facts except that it mentions DP ended 890 last week. the average DP price projected for 2013 went from 1000 to 975. Also, project no full capacity at Thurso until 2H 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think the push in the stock was related to the Chinese manufacturing numbers out today. Favourable numbers; https://www.google.ca/#q=chinese+manufacturing&hl=en&tbo=d&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ei=PvkBUbiGJu2JiwK8-IGwCw&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAA&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=3d181325fb7208d3&biw=1280&bih=878 Agrimoney had two articles recently about how cotton prices are going up despite the fear of Chinese inventory reductions. Perhaps the overhang will be offset by an improving economy? http://www.agrimoney.com/news/cotton-extends-gains-despite-doubts-over-rally--5435.html http://www.agrimoney.com/news/cotton-defies-sell-off-in-softs-to-hit-7-month-top--5433.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Some news about the cogen..not surprising... http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/fortress-paper-provides-update-on-fortress-specialty-cellulose-mill-tsx-ftp-1749760.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I was surprised that the RBC analyst came out with their report yesterday when no new news had been issued. Why not do this in November? I now see that the RBC analyst must have been talking with Chad a day or two ago and gathered enough info from that contact to determine that Thurso was still dealing with the same problems from the 3rd quarter. This is probably why Chad decided to update the rest of the investment community right away. In any event. Quite frustrating indeed. On one hand the stock is incredibly undervalued, when you look at value of the assets it owns. On the other hand, management is failing miserably in their efforts to turn them into big money makers. What's an investor to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Certainly frustrating >:( Hopefully it won't have mattered in a couple of years, but it certainly is getting tiring to have delays and problems with seemingly everything except Dresden... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Frustrating indeed, especially when non-operational factors are finally starting to turn: -> currency (EURO up; Swiss Franc up; CDN$ down; Yuan up) -> DP/VSF ... bouncing off bottom -> cotton ... up -> NBSK ... up As relates co-gen, in Q3 results, they indicated they were at 76% completion ... now they are at 94%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
netnet Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 With apologies, I could not on my a first cut on FTP bring myself to read all 107 pages of discussion here. (With a better mental model of the firm and what to look for I will slog happily slog through!) My question is given that this is an owner operator who buys cheap assets and turns them around, 1) is the thesis still intact for the stock and company? 2) Ok, on an asset basis it is (presumably) under valued, but is the earning power of the assets assured? 3) What is the case against FTP--commodity business, cheaply bought assets but in a boom, bust industry, etc. 4) More specifically, what would turn this into a bad investment and what is the downside? Thanks in advance. Netnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 As relates co-gen, in Q3 results, they indicated they were at 76% completion ... now they are at 94%. 94% done... yet it'll need 2 extra months! Meanwhile, we'll miss the income, waste on penalties and pay the cost overruns of 10 to 20%! Also, after fiddling with the startup for about a year, it's still hit & miss ? Unbelievable! Remind me of Fibrek. Thankfully I sold half my overweight position during the recent rally. This said, I held my nose and just doubled down during today's puke. Because there's still lots of value. Dresden alone is worth more than market cap. Please RFP or TMB, step up, take over and deliver us! We need adult supervision and operation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Brian Pow of Accumen Capital discusses todays news. http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip851593 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roundball100 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 No mercy from the press ... http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/25/fortress-paper-shares-plummet-as-plant-startup-delayed/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Chad is pretty telling the market: next time when Paul downgrade our stocks, you better watch out. The PR seems like a rush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Anybody doubling down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjstc Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 +50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 +100% While I got mad, I believe the current difficulties are a temporary setback and still subscribe to this VIC write-up: http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?m=31865005 Edit: corrected link Edit: corrected increase to +100% more shares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Quebec: The link you posted to directs to some message from 1999? Maybe the link is missing a few characters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Proper thesis link: http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=FTP&t=LIST&m=31865005&l=0&pd=0&r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Proper thesis link: http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=FTP&t=LIST&m=31865005&l=0&pd=0&r=0 What's everyone guess on current cash level? 84millions @ Sept Assume additional 10-20millions cost to the co-gen? Assume 10 million cash burn last Q? 50-60millions? After co-gen, they will at leave be cash flow+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The BAL index is now 28% up off it's June2012 lows with the following articles circulating today .... Wondering if the bottom has formed? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/cotton-climbs-on-rising-demand-sugar-orange-juice-coffee-gain.html http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/01/28/cotton-trends-remain-up-as-strong-sales-continue?t=commodities Quote: "Those looking for Cotton are having a tough time as supplies do not seem to be out there, or at least are not available to the market" Also, more fuel to the fire for more sustainable enviromentally sound fibres. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/27/cottons-water-footprint-world-wildlife-fund_n_2506076.html <iv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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