jjsto Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Found this reference to current dp prices: http://yarnsandfibers.com/preferredsupplier/news_fullstory.php?id=36478 "Upstream, Asian dissolving pulp markets remained firm with mainstream offers at US$1,115-1,145 a ton, with the high end at US$1,180 a ton. Imported dissolving pulp sustained strength with hardwood pulp traded at US$860-870 a ton." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Found this reference to current dp prices: http://yarnsandfibers.com/preferredsupplier/news_fullstory.php?id=36478 "Upstream, Asian dissolving pulp markets remained firm with mainstream offers at US$1,115-1,145 a ton, with the high end at US$1,180 a ton. Imported dissolving pulp sustained strength with hardwood pulp traded at US$860-870 a ton." Thanks for sharing. Cotton seems to have bounced off the bottom too: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=cotton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 "Upstream, Asian dissolving pulp markets remained firm with mainstream offers at US$1,115-1,145 a ton, with the high end at US$1,180 a ton. Imported dissolving pulp sustained strength with hardwood pulp traded at US$860-870 a ton." Why the almost $300 difference in price with imported DP? Is domestic DP generally a higher grade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/07/fortress-paper-could-take-hit-from-chinas-anti-dumping-probe/ I wonder if this'll just go away if (when) DP/viscose prices go back up to a level where the chinese producers aren't losing money... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECCO Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/07/fortress-paper-could-take-hit-from-chinas-anti-dumping-probe/ I wonder if this'll just go away if (when) DP/viscose prices go back up to a level where the chinese producers aren't losing money... We must admit that chinese are pretty good business people. They let the price go to the roof to make the supply increase, and now that supply is increassing, they will kill the dp producer to buy them when they will go bankrupt in a year or two from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prunes Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This feels like the death knell on this investment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This feels like the death knell on this investment... Make no sense to invest a dime to the new plant until this clear up. This will have impact on whether they can be compete with the local players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This feels like the death knell on this investment... Make no sense to invest a dime to the new plant until this clear up. This will have impact on whether they can be compete with the local players. Now you know why the inplemented the probe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Certainly bad news, though there isn't much detail yet. I wonder if China often opens probes like this, and how often they result in anything. In the plus column for the near future, we have Dresden which should continue to rock and be worth more than the current market cap, the euro and swiss francs moving in favorable directions, Landquart moving in the right direction thanks to the reinstated big order and smaller durasafe order (if latest news are to be believed, though that's always a big ?? and I'll believe it when I see it), Thurso finishing its ramp up (though at current DP prices, not making much), and the cogen (though late and over-budget >:( ) starting up and providing a nice stable cashflow. Nothing to go crazy over, but better than what the market is pricing in currently. Don't know if they'll decide to push back LSQ or what. At least they have the option of doing that fairly easily with the way things are structured. Now if only DP/viscose prices could recover above chinese producers' cost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoeless Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I have no idea what the chances are that this will come to anything but it feels like these guys can't get a break. Frustrating. Something else I came across a while ago: apparently there are anti-trust investigations into German wallpaper companies such as AS Creation (the largest in Germany and I think the EU): http://www.as-creation.de/files/out/investor_relation/unternehmensnachrichten/dao_investor_news_241_file__Ad-hoc_Release_2011_11_15.pdf I'm still hoping IR will answer my email asking if/how this relates to Fortress but no luck so far and its been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prunes Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Assuming Thurso defaulted on its debts and had to be liquidated, what do we realistically think FTP could sell it for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Assuming Thurso defaulted on its debts and had to be liquidated, what do we realistically think FTP could sell it for? covert it back to NSBK. :) DP is nothing but trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Of course it would be that none of Buckeye (BKI), Rayonier (RYN), Sateri (HK:1768), Tembec (CA:TMB) really moved much on the news. Buckeye and Rayonier are two US-based DP players (although they mostly do high-end stuff). Sateri's big DP operations are in Brazil, the other country targeted. They are more akin to FTP as produce large amounts of basic DP, but they are bigger, and other wrinkle is that they both produce DP for their own internal VSF req'ts, as well as sell to external VSF players. Maybe FTP should just try selling to likes of Lenzing (Austria) and Grasim/Abitya-Birla (India), who are the biggest VSF players globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Of course it would be that none of Buckeye (BKI), Rayonier (RYN), Sateri (HK:1768), Tembec (CA:TMB) really moved much on the news. Buckeye and Rayonier are two US-based DP players (although they mostly do high-end stuff). Sateri's big DP operations are in Brazil, the other country targeted. They are more akin to FTP as produce large amounts of basic DP, but they are bigger, and other wrinkle is that they both produce DP for their own internal VSF req'ts, as well as sell to external VSF players. Maybe FTP should just try selling to likes of Lenzing (Austria) and Grasim/Abitya-Birla (India), who are the biggest VSF players globally. RBC released research notes saying FTP has higher chance to get hit because Quebec's financing help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ahhh yes ... even though it was a loan (non-recourse to the parent mind you) and not a grant. Let's see where VSF prices/volumes go ... that's the driver for all DP players really. Also, couldn't they also just revert back to producing NBHK? With NBSK prices trending back up towards $900 (and presumably NBHK having similar trajectory) ... which is range of DP pricing now ironically ... and with cogen online, and with less input costs for other aspects of production ... you'd think they'd have a reasonable fall-back alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 FTP should do a PR to address this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 FTP should do a PR to address this. Last year their Q4 call was on March 5. Are they in a blackout period right now? Can't remember how many days that is in Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Arggh ... I had written up this most-excellent post, then it crashed on me. Shame on me for being verbose. What I was essentially going to say was: -> I'd avoid the PR ... it's a no-win, as would just piss off the Chinese authorities (don't want to lose face there) -> That said ... What's with the Chicken Little? -> Look back at Q2/2011 segment results for Thurso ~55K tonnes produced ~$40M in revenue (i.e. ~$735/ton after shipping/commissions) NBHK list price similar to where it is today (look at p6 of investor presentation) Operating income of $3.3M/qtr (no EBITDA segmentation back then) -> Fast-forward to today NBHK list price similar to then (look at p6 of investor presentation), trending towards $900/ton DP/NBSK/NBHK list prices all scarily converging COGEN coming online, with expectation to generate $5M/qtr So ... adding operating income with COGEN ... couldn't they go back and produce NBHK, get $8.3M/qtr at least of EBITDA today (recognizing higher interest and amortization due to the $200M sunk into DP conversion and COGEN will affect the operating income number). Maybe not as juicy as DP above $1100/ton ... but good enough to call somebody's bluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It just would be so much simpler if DP would go up... Meanwhile, it's not an easy ride! Could we say DP price, and demand, is driven just by China? And if so, do they want DP price to be low, so they can buy it cheap oversea, or would they like it to go up so their plant are making profit? It seems the latter for now, but is it really good for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so, the thesis is even if oversupply in DP market (it will be), FTP will be OK because it's low cost producer but what if now FTP become a high cost producers in China because of the tariff. That's a big IF, but it's a real risk that management need to address head on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 But their actual buyer in China won't be happy if they are forced to buy at a higher price, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 But their actual buyer in China won't be happy if they are forced to buy at a higher price, no? I wonder what would happen to such a tarrif if Thurso or LSQ was sold to a Chinese viscose producer.. Would China still apply the tarrif to a Chinese company owning an asset outside the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Uhhh ... a) remember who's buying this stuff. If VSF prices are low, then Chnise VSF producers are not going to be buying much $1200/ton DP from Chinese producers, let alone FTP with a tariff, so the whole chain would go poof. b) while there's an investigation initiated, there's no tariff at this point, and any conclusion is 12-18mo out (maybe that length of time is on purpose?), so it's not a tomorrow thing ... and in the meantime the trend is possibly finally upwards on VSF (supported by strengthening cotton prices), buying time for authorities to do their thing officially, and then c) if tariff actually did come in, and it was high, FTP has options for Thurso (and LSQ) -> sell DP w tariff to Chinese (this is like cotton in China today ... artificially high domestic price, and all other sources have either quotas or sliding scale tariffs ... and importantly, as is obvious, these particular sliding scale tariffs have less effect as cotton prices go up ... so if had same for DP, then it might be a moot point if DP prices trend back upwards) -> sell DP to non-Chinese (and maybe then have them export their VSF to China ... this is like what is happening with cotton yarn today, to avoid the quotas ... it just shifts the pain then to the VSF producers) -> revert and sell NBSK/NBHK w nice COGEN contracts and non-recourse debt (Hmm ... that's exactly what Mercer does) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 There are certainly many levers to pull and various paths that can be taken. It's just too bad that there is turning out to be so many speedbumps on the original path... But hopefully in 6-12 months we'll be in a totally different place (excess cotton from big price spike having been digested by the snake, so to speak) and days like today will be long forgotten. I wonder if there would be a way to negotiate with Domtar for LSQ to produce more pulp than what was allowed in the sale contract... Maybe running that along with its cogen would be the way to go for a longer period than initially anticipated if the DP market is slow to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Liberty: A) Fulida fm China (who has one of contracts w FTP) owns DP plant on Vancouver Island B) Agree, they have levers to pull C) Agree, they could/should approach Domtar about selling more than their 100k ton allotment. They may also have a slider ... W NBSK plant, isn't there option to produce semi-dissolving pulp? Am not sure exactly what it is, but Chinese bidder for Terrace Bay was pitching to produce it fm the get-go. Am no doubt wrong on this, but hey, if it was classified as a different product, then w no/little incremental investment, maybe they could gey around both Domtar contract and any DP specific tariffs? If only ... ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now