Liberty Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Thanks Quebec. Update: Ended the day a hair short of 25% on close to 350k shares traded. Talk about volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looks like yesterday might not have been a one-off; high volume again and a big jump in price, and all that one a mostly down day for markets in general. Could this all be only due to the analyst report and management change? Or is there something else that isn't public? Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Well, if you were waiting for the best time to start accumulating this stock, and your experience in stock picking told you that what you want to see is 3 things. First, a tremendous number of problems, that are not insurmountable (this get's you the best price due to the pessimism surrounding those problems). A stock will always bottom at the point of maximum pessimism. This rule was discovered by John Templeton, around 1950, and has never been broken. The second thing you want to see is a good margin of safety. With the current price and the assets this company has, I would imagine a new investor has some pretty significant safety, all the way up to around $14 a share. The last thing you would like to see is the industry improving. Since the beginning of this year, we have seen much stronger cotton prices, cotton linter pulp prices and dissolving pulp prices. Add to that the underlining meaning of our Chinese competitors making their last ditch effort at survival, with their dumping complaint, and you can assume from that, their days in this business are shortly numbered. Their exit will go a long way to improving this industries pricing and fundamentals. Even if they stay, DP prices seem to be stabilizing and upticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It's very odd indeed liberty. Then again, the extreme sell-of these last few months probably has been too extreme as well. And while you guys mostly see the new appointment as good news, I really am completely agnostic about these things at this point. Idem with possibility for specialty DP, merger with Tembec, ... Lets wait until the operational problems are fixed before we form new expectations. Chad has little power now, it's the nature of the sector that has the upperhand at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looks like yesterday might not have been a one-off; high volume again and a big jump in price, and all that one a mostly down day for markets in general. Could this all be only due to the analyst report and management change? Or is there something else that isn't public? Hmm... I doubt there is something else not public. Looking at the trades on the TSX page, it seems like a bunch of little trades coming from all over the places. Volume is not that impressive. I'm guessing some quick burst relief rally from the upgrade with its explanation and the nomination. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 I doubt there is something else not public. Looking at the trades on the TSX page, it seems like a bunch of little trades coming from all over the places. Volume is not that impressive. I'm guessing some quick burst relief rally from the upgrade with its explanation and the nomination. Just my opinion. True, though it looks like there was at least a 40k block today, and yesterday there was what looked like a couple of 100k blocks (total of 340k shares for the day). That's significant if we keep in mind that there were just 630k shares traded on the November Q3 announcement that made the stock sink, which one would expect would be a much bigger deal, but it's not crazy unusual I suppose... But hey, I'm not trying to read the tea leaves. It's just making me curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I keep an eye too for block trades or aggressive buying, because we are at a market cap where, even with recent problems, a take over certainly could arise. The acquirer would get a whole lot of nice assets and projects for its money. Taking the time to fix and parcel this handy man special could be very lucrative. This current rally reminds of the one just prior, from 7 to 12, where it seemed a self fulfilling spiral from retail investors, until it was derailed by the Quinn downgrade. It's so cheap for the sum of the parts, it does not need much to ignite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 What do you think of the "shareholder rights plan"? I'm no expert on those, but I wonder if it's scary enough to prevent takeover attempts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Really not an expert here, but I believe it just stalls things for a month or so, to give time for other offers to emerge or management to convince shareholders, until the authorities dismantle this obstacle. What really works to prevent are large shareholders that are aligned against and won't vote for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Since Chad has indicated that everything is for sale, at the right price, I am happy to let him decide on a fair price for a takeover. I think that is all he wanted to do with this shareholder rights plan. He doesn't have a controlling interest to stop a takeover, but I will want to hear his opinion on any offer, before I tender. He knows the opportunity and the risks, much more then me and he has a lot more skin in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 http://globalpapersecurity.com/angola-reserve-bank-unveils-new-currency-series.htm interesting that this was posted on their own blog. i wonder if its their contract? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 http://globalpapersecurity.com/angola-reserve-bank-unveils-new-currency-series.htm interesting that this was posted on their own blog. i wonder if its their contract? My guess is it is, otherwise why post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No ... they post lots of stuff there ... pretty educational (for those interested in currency/banknotes/etc.) ... check out the top level for thread of stuff http://globalpapersecurity.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Screenshot of VSF prices as of today ... back at 15000yuan/mt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 No ... they post lots of stuff there ... pretty educational (for those interested in currency/banknotes/etc.) ... check out the top level for thread of stuff http://globalpapersecurity.com/ My bad, I haven't been there in quite a while and should've refreshed my memory before posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 The Raymond James report was not the only one. On Feb 19, CIBC's analyst also posted a short report that rates FTP as "sector outperform" (though without a target price), and seems to agree with a lot of what has been said here. There's an estimate on Thurso's ramp up: "we are expecting to see an 80% operating rate in Q4/12 and something between 80% and 85% for Q1/13. With the leadership of Mr. Pelletier, we now have even more confidence that FTP will see Thurso progress on a positive path and we expect by Q4/13 the mill will see sustained operating rates of 95% or better." Overall, they seem pretty positive on Pelletier. On the Chinese probe: "We believe this investigation will ultimately prove to be little more than a paper chasing exercise. Ultimately, due to lack of adequate fiber supplies, Chinese pulp mills (whether dissolving mills or kraft paper pulp mills) are high-cost producers – primarily due to fiber costs that are 2x-3x that of North American or South American producers. As well the Chinese viscose staple fiber manufacturing sector is a far more important sector to China (in terms of capital invested and jobs created) than the dissolving wood pulp manufacturing sector. Thus a trade action, such as import duties on dissolving pulp from North America or South America, would do more harm than good to Chinese industry. The time frame for the investigation period on this action is anywhere from 12-18 months. So while this issue could be outstanding for a period of time, we ultimately do not expect it to amount to much." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On the Chinese probe: "We believe this investigation will ultimately prove to be little more than a paper chasing exercise. Ultimately, due to lack of adequate fiber supplies, Chinese pulp mills (whether dissolving mills or kraft paper pulp mills) are high-cost producers – primarily due to fiber costs that are 2x-3x that of North American or South American producers. As well the Chinese viscose staple fiber manufacturing sector is a far more important sector to China (in terms of capital invested and jobs created) than the dissolving wood pulp manufacturing sector. Thus a trade action, such as import duties on dissolving pulp from North America or South America, would do more harm than good to Chinese industry. The time frame for the investigation period on this action is anywhere from 12-18 months. So while this issue could be outstanding for a period of time, we ultimately do not expect it to amount to much." Sounds like this guy read my Stockhouse posts and just cut and pasted it to his report. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 What I'd really like to know now is, what's the fastest that FTP could transition to specialty DP and how expensive would that transition be (would it require much new equipment? Is it just going through a certification process with buyers to assure them that you have the quality and consistency?)? And how much of the competition also has the potential to switch to specialty? Thurso and LSQ, from what I can tell, seem to be in a sweet spot of equipment type and wood supply to do very high alpha and very consistent DP. How rare are those attributes? Chad mentioned - I think it was at the St-Andrews conference - that early batches from Thurso had some of the highest alpha in the world, and that was before they were able to tweak their processes. Now there are a lot of assumption in what I'm about to say, but let me know if it sounds correct to you: IF the main factor for specialty DP is cellulose purity, as measured by alpha among other things, and IF few other DP producers have alpha as high as Thurso (and as LSQ is supposed to be able to produce), and IF alpha levels are highly dependent on the quality of wood supply (something that is almost impossible to change -- it's not like upgrading equipment), this could mean that few other DP producers would be able to make the jump to specialty. In fact, if it was easy to do, it probably wouldn't be called "specialty" :) I think that when Chad looked at all potential conversion targets when he was looking for plants, being able to do specialty DP was a criteria. I think he mentioned that out of all the plants he looked at around the world, only 6 met his criteria, and he got 2 of those (though that's not counting plants that are being built from scratch, but they might still have wood supply issues). Ok, so that's a lot of IFs, so feel free to poke holes in the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On the Chinese probe: "We believe this investigation will ultimately prove to be little more than a paper chasing exercise. Ultimately, due to lack of adequate fiber supplies, Chinese pulp mills (whether dissolving mills or kraft paper pulp mills) are high-cost producers – primarily due to fiber costs that are 2x-3x that of North American or South American producers. As well the Chinese viscose staple fiber manufacturing sector is a far more important sector to China (in terms of capital invested and jobs created) than the dissolving wood pulp manufacturing sector. Thus a trade action, such as import duties on dissolving pulp from North America or South America, would do more harm than good to Chinese industry. The time frame for the investigation period on this action is anywhere from 12-18 months. So while this issue could be outstanding for a period of time, we ultimately do not expect it to amount to much." Sounds like this guy read my Stockhouse posts and just cut and pasted it to his report. lol. So true! I tought you were him for a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steady77 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 According to BNN's website Chad is scheduled for 4:05PM ET today. It says they report earnings but that is incorrect. Earnings are due in 2 weeks. ----------------------------------------------------------------- 4:05 pm ET Chad Wasilenkoff Chairman and CEO, Fortress Paper The Close Fortress Paper reports earnings BNN asks Chad Wasilenkoff, CEO, Fortress Paper if the company can come back from its recent pull back. http://www.bnn.ca/Schedule.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steady77 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Here is the link to an excellent Bloomberg "Taking Stock" radio interview with Chad after the Q3 results were released. I don't see it posted on this forum. He discusses the dissolving pulp cost structure and the reason for differences in targets from analysts. The week before the interview (November) they ran at 93% and had a $778 cash cost (almost at $750 target). http://chirb.it/3b461e?utm_source=Email+Created+2012%2F11%2F26%2C+3%3A06+PM&utm_campaign=FPNov30&utm_medium=archive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Thanks for posting, Steady. Glad to see you here! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRK7 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is the below possibly referencing a perviously broadcast interview? Following the provided link, I don't see anything on the schedule for today. According to BNN's website Chad is scheduled for 4:05PM ET today. It says they report earnings but that is incorrect. Earnings are due in 2 weeks. ----------------------------------------------------------------- 4:05 pm ET Chad Wasilenkoff Chairman and CEO, Fortress Paper The Close Fortress Paper reports earnings BNN asks Chad Wasilenkoff, CEO, Fortress Paper if the company can come back from its recent pull back. http://www.bnn.ca/Schedule.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is the below possibly referencing a perviously broadcast interview? Following the provided link, I don't see anything on the schedule for today. According to BNN's website Chad is scheduled for 4:05PM ET today. It says they report earnings but that is incorrect. Earnings are due in 2 weeks. ----------------------------------------------------------------- 4:05 pm ET Chad Wasilenkoff Chairman and CEO, Fortress Paper The Close Fortress Paper reports earnings BNN asks Chad Wasilenkoff, CEO, Fortress Paper if the company can come back from its recent pull back. http://www.bnn.ca/Schedule.aspx They changed it. Chad was on there earlier this morning when I checked. Must've been a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steady77 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 BNN made an error. Chad is scheduled for BNN on March 11th (the earnings release date). Sorry about the confusion. I found it strange that they mentioned the company was reporting earnings. -------------------------------------------- BusinessNewsNetwork @BNN Correction: Fortress Paper CEO scheduled for March 11th, not today. $FTP.ca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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