OptsyEagle Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Nice move in the $US last year. Almost 10% increase over the $Cdn. That adds about another $90 per tonne to Fortress Paper's selling price ... or the equivalent of adding another Co-gen operation. Let's hope our loonie drops another 10% this year. Not my preferred way to success, but I'll take it. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDCAD=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 This sensitivity analysis in no longer accurate as it has been done before Dresden has been sold. What is important now is EUR/CHF and USD/CAD. Obviously a weaker CAD is good for Fortress. But you have to actually have customers for your DP products... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 This sensitivity analysis in no longer accurate as it has been done before Dresden has been sold. What is important now is EUR/CHF and USD/CAD. Obviously a weaker CAD is good for Fortress. But you have to actually have customers for your DP products... that's a great point. i'm going to remove so as to not confuse the issue. forgot about Dresden impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Obviously a weaker CAD is good for Fortress. But you have to actually have customers for your DP products... What you actually need someone to pay you some US dollars for this to be beneficial? lol. Joking aside, Fortress has no lack of customers. Their problem is being able to produce the product at a profit. Until then, they don't really want any customers. A higher $US gets them to that point a lot quicker then a lower one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Obviously a weaker CAD is good for Fortress. But you have to actually have customers for your DP products... What you actually need someone to pay you some US dollars for this to be beneficial? lol. Joking aside, Fortress has no lack of customers. Their problem is being able to produce the product at a profit. Until then, they don't really want any customers. A higher $US gets them to that point a lot quicker then a lower one. I will welcome any piece of positive news for this company. Anyone has the latest DP quote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Obviously a weaker CAD is good for Fortress. But you have to actually have customers for your DP products... What you actually need someone to pay you some US dollars for this to be beneficial? lol. Joking aside, Fortress has no lack of customers. Their problem is being able to produce the product at a profit. Until then, they don't really want any customers. A higher $US gets them to that point a lot quicker then a lower one. I think part of the problem is that their cost of production was too high relative to the sales prices when including the 13% tariff. Because they would be selling into China at price that is below their cost of production (including tariff) they could be considered to be dumping. So, shutting down solves 3 problems on the short term. 1) Cash burn is lower, 2)They can use the downtime to tune the process and implement cost reduction measures, 3) buy some time until the Feb MOFCOM decision. My gut feeling is that the 13% tariff was assigned by MOFCOM without taking into consideration the Cogen because it wasn't up and running yet. Now that it is, they should be able to show lower costs and therefore could possibly see the 13% tariff reduced. If you thought that was case, waiting a few weeks to sell it with a lower tariff makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Meanwhile, over at Landqart ... it appears that their un-named Durasafe customer #2 may be Republic of Kazakhstan ... although some politics with new governor, and worries about devaluation associated with release of large denomination bill, are conspiring to delay it's release. http://translate.google.ca/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://news.nur.kz/297141.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3Ddurasafe%2Blandqart%26sa%3DX%26biw%3D1221%26bih%3D683%26tbs%3Dqdr:w http://en.tengrinews.kz/finance/Central-Bank-Governor-on-expediency-of-the-new-20000-tenge-note-24775/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Meanwhile, over at Landqart ... it appears that their un-named Durasafe customer #2 may be Republic of Kazakhstan ... although some politics with new governor, and worries about devaluation associated with release of large denomination bill, are conspiring to delay it's release. http://translate.google.ca/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://news.nur.kz/297141.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3Ddurasafe%2Blandqart%26sa%3DX%26biw%3D1221%26bih%3D683%26tbs%3Dqdr:w http://en.tengrinews.kz/finance/Central-Bank-Governor-on-expediency-of-the-new-20000-tenge-note-24775/ And with EUR/CHF going trending up, hopefully Landquart can help limit the cash burn at the mean time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Someone PM'ed me. DP price is still weak at ~$895. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Yes, but at least that $895 is worth 10% more to Fortress Paper then it was last year. Think of it like almost 1,000 Canadian dollars per tonne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 True, hope they can lower than the 13%. and sell the LSQ to Domtor for NBSK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 so the final decision is fast approaching, anyone want to guess what the outcome will be? increase, decrease or eliminate? logic said eliminate but given this is illogical to start with, my bet is it will be lower a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 so the final decision is fast approaching, anyone want to guess what the outcome will be? increase, decrease or eliminate? logic said eliminate but given this is illogical to start with, my bet is it will be lower a bit. My thinking is similar. If they didn't take the cogen into account before, and now they do, it can't do anything but help. And since the cogen is pretty significant, it should make a significant difference. But who knows? Has the process been entirely co-opted by politics? Did they get the impact they wanted by scaring foreigners who would have invested in DP, giving them more latitude to unload their cotton, so now they can untighten the grip a bit before WTO challenges come? I don't know. It's all so opaque... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I worry whether these tariffs have made some non-repairable damage to the industry, that will be retained no matter what the outcome is in February. Even conversions take 100s of millions of dollars of investment and when a country like China is the main customer, it should now give investors some pause to think about this, a little longer. These tariffs were simply protectionism at the worst ...or...at best, incompetence by the Chinese regulatory body, either of which would dissuade me from making a multi-hundred million dollar investment in the industry or even a multi-thousand dollar investment in the stocks. It also prevents me from making any kind of intelligent prediction for February's ruling, since it is impossible to figure out how, the protectionist or the idiot, might be thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 i think that is exactly what they try to achieve, stop new entrance eventually those Chinese plants will be profitable. but sappi is set free so idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 if they remove the duties totally, Thurso will immediately become an asset that can generate 40million plus of ebidta if they can lower the costs to 780. i think pps will double if they really remove the duties. probably more... what do u guys think? I am thinking to add some here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 if they remove the duties totally, Thurso will immediately become an asset that can generate 40million plus of ebidta if they can lower the costs to 780. i think pps will double if they really remove the duties. probably more... what do u guys think? I am thinking to add some here Just look at where it was trading before the duty was announced. I think it would be a very big deal if it's removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 i agree, on top of that we have nice currency swing, and some new entrance will be gone forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Cotton prices have been moving back up lately. That's also a positive. (I like to keep an eye on NYSEARCA:BAL, the iPath DJ-UBS Cotton Subindex Total Return SM Index ETN, and on http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=cotton ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 hmmm.. the price runs away from me. guys, this one is huge risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 3.9 million FTP.DB.A traded today. Not sure what it means (if anything), but definitely not normal volume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 3.9 million FTP.DB.A traded today. Not sure what it means (if anything), but definitely not normal volume. probably a pre-arranged sale as the price didn't move much. The only way I see this as positive is if the buyer was FTP. As that would mean they are getting more comfortable. But I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZenaidaMacroura Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Is the original thesis (undue distressed selling a la Phil fisher) still intact given the developments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 3.9 million FTP.DB.A traded today. Not sure what it means (if anything), but definitely not normal volume. Another ±3.9 million DB.A traded so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 3.9 million FTP.DB.A traded today. Not sure what it means (if anything), but definitely not normal volume. Another ±3.9 million DB.A traded so far today. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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