alertmeipp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 yet more selling...anyone know who the sellers are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 A lot more from JonesTrading (in lots of really small increments - programmed selling) ... amongst others. http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=FTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thanks, yes, more aggressive, and buyers just wait for their bid to get hit and not willing to bid this one up. I checked around and dont see any new news or development, in fact, viscose market is firming up and last i heared the shutdown is on schedule. Hope the selling is more a personal call. holding tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Hey Alertmeipp: Looks like Thurso may be starting to buy inputs again ... check out the notifications dated Jan30/Feb10/Feb13 @ the following: http://spfl.net OR (english translation) http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=spfl.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Thanks for comforting info. I think we will hear about production resumption in a week or two. I pretty much bought back the shares I sold early this year last couple weeks, too early. I am very tempted to get more but my position getting big. I really like the risk/reward. I keep telling myself maybe I should take advantage of those constantly selling instead of worrying about it. EV is close to 150m. Just taking off that 13%, Thurso will get ~45m a year! But I thought 4 bucks was bargain as well.... duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 We are now entering week 10 from the Dec 22nd shutdown. Hopefully we'll be hearing shortly where things are at. Bought more stock and wiggled my ACB down a bit this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I have been adding as well. :-\ What do you think of the non-stop selling with low volume? Down ~25% YTD with ~5% of the float trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I have been adding as well. :-\ What do you think of the non-stop selling with low volume? Down ~25% YTD with ~5% of the float trade. Seems like pretty small daily volumes in aggregate. The market is clearly in "show me" mode at this point. Too many promisees have not been kept by management and that leads to a nervous shareholder base. Also, I've been monitoring some of the trading (more for personal clarification) and I've noted a good amount of swing trading lately. I've taken a picture of the level 2 below .... You'll see that a buy order for 11,000 @ 3.24 was entered at 15:19:46 and moments later a sell order input for 11,000 shares on the sell side at 3.46. That small trade gives about 6.8% return gross of transaction cost and tax. The volatility in the share price could easily make this trade successful. Seems like the short term trades are moving the stock as the long term shareholders just sit and wait ...... http://i728.photobucket.com/albums/ww289/MikeNCathy/ftp_zps1acd6090.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like Francis Chou has been buying some debs: http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/Bondport1213.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thurso has reopened according to CBC http://ici.radio-canada.ca/regions/ottawa/2014/03/03/001-rouverture-usine-thurso.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Thanks again for the info. This one looks so dead. Well, at least they are on schedule for once. Guess we will have to wait till the CC to know if the desired goal is achieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 IIROC has reduced the margin requirement for FTP as of March 3, 2014. During the last year of volatile trading in FTP stock the margin was increased from 30% to 50%. I think this contributed to a good amount of selling in the stock as investors who were too highly levered were required to either post margin or sell out. As of today, IIROC has reduced the margin back to 30% from 50%. It will be interesting to see if it has the reverse effect whereby investors begin to use their increased buying power to acquire more stock while its down. http://docs.iiroc.ca/DisplayDocument.aspx?DocumentID=EEF4ADF8C9064FAABE886965AD68BF87&Language=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Operations Restarting: News Release http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/fortress-specialty-cellulose-mill-restarts-operation-tsx-ftp-1884898.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Lessthaniv, would you take out that endless supply at 3.35? I tried my best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Now we're back into analyzing economics of NBHK, at least in the near term. COST If target cost structure for DP is $810 CDN delivered to China, then it is $720 or so undelivered. And if can produce 25% more NBHK for same price as DP, then target cost is $575ish CDN undelivered ... which conforms to earlier analyses. PRICE On price side, NBHK not quoted too regularly, but recent listing shows list price at $870 USD. http://www.risiinfo.com/pulp-paper/news/Alberta-Pacific-announces-Jan-1-price-increases-on-NBHK-NBSK-pulp-in-North-America.html If convert that to CDN at .90 and then take 28% discount from list, you get current $696 CDN net price (ie 870 / .90 x .72) If factor in cost to deliver (locally, say at $25/tonne), then guess they might be able to make $100/ton (or $25M/yr if 250K tons/yr) Lots of ifs ... but having the CDN dollar at $.90 USD vs $.96 USD that it was in early November sure helps. Downside remains all of the S. Hemisphere capacity coming into the market, offset by NBSK price hikes causing big delta in price with NBHK price (and therefore incentive for substitution). We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Why you take 28 percent off? I think it is 10 15 percent off the list price? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 This is why: http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/selective-cuttings/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Expectations are so low that just restarting the plant when they said they would is enough for a 10% bump, apparently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Still down maybe 15 percent ytd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Still down maybe 15 percent ytd. It's down since IPO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sculpin Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 My favourite initiating report on FTP - "Money Does Grow on Trees" - wow what a contrary report this was.... Marc Robinson, (416) 943-4224, mrobinson@cormark.com Maggie Johnson - Associate (416) 943-6733, mjohnson@cormark.com INDUSTRIALS & SPECIAL S ITUATIONS January 6, 2011 Fortress Paper Ltd. Money Does Grow On Trees All figures in C$ unless otherwise denoted We are initiating coverage on Fortress Paper Ltd. with a Top Pick recommendation and a $65 target price. We believe now is an ideal time to invest in each of Fortress’ three pulp and paper-related operating assets: • The conversion of Thurso from a high-cost NBHK producer to a lowcost dissolving pulp producer is on time and budget and slated for a Q3/11 launch. We believe dissolving pulp prices should remain strong, at $1,300/MT, supporting values well above those implied currently. We ascribe a strong likelihood to Fortress sourcing additional capacity in 2011 which has the potential to drive valuations significantly higher. • Dresden enjoys a dominant competitive position in the growing nonwoven wallpaper industry. The majority of capacity expansions are now complete, with EBITDA set to grow by double digits annually. Longer term, management sees the market doubling, necessitating further value enhancing development. • The recent $50 MM facility upgrade at Landqart extends high-margin security paper capacity fourfold, enabling multi-year EBITDA growth. This investment has already been made. Two large industry players are now mired in scandal, creating an opportunity to poach business or acquire the targets outright. Either scenario could see Landqart reach scale quickly, enabling a spin-out on an accretive basis. A sum of the parts valuation drives $63.88 per share. Be it more dissolving pulp capacity or realized prices closer to the current spot price, an acquisition and/or spin-out of Landqart, or capacity expansion or LBO of Dresden, there is substantial upside to this valuation if management is able to execute on its current plans. We therefore launch on Fortress with a $65 target and Top Pick recommendation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Haha. Well, Fortress just needs to tread water for a couple years and perhaps it will live to see $1300/mt again. With NBHK capability, Dresden cash, and Landquart not bleeding it dry it just may see that day. Who knows, we may even see some things go FTP's way like the end of those ludicrous tariffs. My favourite initiating report on FTP - "Money Does Grow on Trees" - wow what a contrary report this was.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 I haven't had time to read it yet, so I have no idea if it's any good, but I found this posted on another board: http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/instablog/23816973-munichvalueinvestments/2732013-fortress-paper-ltd-a-misunderstood-unfollowed-gem-with-multiple-catalysts-in-place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 My favourite initiating report on FTP - "Money Does Grow on Trees" - wow what a contrary report this was.... Marc Robinson, (416) 943-4224, mrobinson@cormark.com Maggie Johnson - Associate (416) 943-6733, mjohnson@cormark.com INDUSTRIALS & SPECIAL S ITUATIONS January 6, 2011 Fortress Paper Ltd. Money Does Grow On Trees All figures in C$ unless otherwise denoted We are initiating coverage on Fortress Paper Ltd. with a Top Pick recommendation and a $65 target price. We believe now is an ideal time to invest in each of Fortress’ three pulp and paper-related operating assets: • The conversion of Thurso from a high-cost NBHK producer to a lowcost dissolving pulp producer is on time and budget and slated for a Q3/11 launch. We believe dissolving pulp prices should remain strong, at $1,300/MT, supporting values well above those implied currently. We ascribe a strong likelihood to Fortress sourcing additional capacity in 2011 which has the potential to drive valuations significantly higher. • Dresden enjoys a dominant competitive position in the growing nonwoven wallpaper industry. The majority of capacity expansions are now complete, with EBITDA set to grow by double digits annually. Longer term, management sees the market doubling, necessitating further value enhancing development. • The recent $50 MM facility upgrade at Landqart extends high-margin security paper capacity fourfold, enabling multi-year EBITDA growth. This investment has already been made. Two large industry players are now mired in scandal, creating an opportunity to poach business or acquire the targets outright. Either scenario could see Landqart reach scale quickly, enabling a spin-out on an accretive basis. A sum of the parts valuation drives $63.88 per share. Be it more dissolving pulp capacity or realized prices closer to the current spot price, an acquisition and/or spin-out of Landqart, or capacity expansion or LBO of Dresden, there is substantial upside to this valuation if management is able to execute on its current plans. We therefore launch on Fortress with a $65 target and Top Pick recommendation. Hmm. He puts out Dresden as one of the operating assets? Would you mind sharing the complete report? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hmm. He puts out Dresden as one of the operating assets? Would you mind sharing the complete report? Thanks! Note the date, it's from January 6, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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