obtuse_investor Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I haven't had time to read it yet, so I have no idea if it's any good, but I found this posted on another board: http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/instablog/23816973-munichvalueinvestments/2732013-fortress-paper-ltd-a-misunderstood-unfollowed-gem-with-multiple-catalysts-in-place Thanks for the posting! Very thorough report and some stuff that I hadn't unearthed with my own research. Thanks again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The SA post disappeared, did anyone manage to download a copy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 The SA post disappeared, did anyone manage to download a copy? I haven't downloaded it, but I had a chance to read it before it disappeared. It seemed a bit too bullish in spots, though it made some good points too. I think SA has been having software issues recently, so maybe it'll come back. I suggest going to the frontpage of the site and going to FTP's page from there to see if it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obtuse_investor Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The SA post disappeared, did anyone manage to download a copy? You're welcome! ;) munich-value-report-Mar2014.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The SA post disappeared, did anyone manage to download a copy? You're welcome! ;) Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
treehugger Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The SA post disappeared, did anyone manage to download a copy? You're welcome! ;) This forum was credited as one of the sources! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FFHWatcher Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Posters here cheered it on in the 30's and 40's. Had the EBITDA pinned down to the exact nano-penny. Now it is $3 something. That is not a compliment. Chad and this stock/company has been one of the biggest losers here. If he/they can turn this mother ship around, it will be one of the biggest wins ever. My comments reflect the stock price, not the company. Watcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The report was a pretty good description of the situation but it really was just a rehash of what we already know. If the duties go away and the DP price stabilizes and rises above $1000 or if the duties stay and the DP price rises above $1,100 per tonne, then the stock price should go up. If the DP price rises considerably higher then $1,100, the share price should go up a lot. If the duties stay and/or the DP sits where it is or goes down even more, the share price will go down a lot. I assume the guy who wrote the report wants it to work out in the 1st scenario but I didn't read anything that gives me anymore conviction that it will. Did anyone else see anything in it that provides any insight into the future, that I or we have missed? I have no doubt that the stock is trading at below its proper valuation but we still need a few good things to happen before one can feel confident that they can make money from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 50centdollars Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Anyone notices that Chou added Fortress debt to his bond fund? http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/Bondport1213.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 still quite a bit of selling around 3.5 range...At least I think it's small fishes but on going... puzzling thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Q4 2013 http://www.fortresspaper.com/images/pdfs/releases/FTP%20NR%20Q4%202013%20final.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECCO Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Q4 2013 http://www.fortresspaper.com/images/pdfs/releases/FTP%20NR%20Q4%202013%20final.pdf “Positive developments throughout the year were overshadowed by the disappointing financial results from the Dissolving Pulp Segment. As we enter 2014, we believe that we are making progress on numerous initiatives and are confident that we are on the right track to overcome remaining obstacles. Notice that there is a "s" at the end of "positive developments". I guess that mean like past years....Chad will deserve a bonus for all thoses positive developments... Second point, when a stock go down by 10% just before results, I always scratch my head... Someone at CIBC World Market was in a hury to sell his stock today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 OK, I hope there will be more info in the CC. Down 15% this morning, now a market cap under 40M$ CAD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm25 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 OK, I hope there will be more info in the CC. Down 15% this morning, now a market cap under 40M$ CAD... How much lower can this go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obtuse_investor Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 We know the motivations of the sellers- another quarterly loss, nonstop issues, anti-dumping overhang, etc.... who are the buyers? What is their motivation? Are the buyers predominantly looking for a dead cat bounce? Or are they seeing sunshine beyond the clouds? Or is it something else? This is what I am wondering about. I have read through the MD&A and Q4 report. I haven't heard the conference call yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Shortest conf call ever it seems. Only questions from Mark Kennedy at CIBC. - IQ debt repayment schedule -> Got deferment for Q1 payment ... Discussing about ways to mitigate further anticipated $16M/yr principle/interest schedule ... Quebec election may impact timing ... hoping for April/May - DP inventory ... have commitments for remaining inventory, waiting on letters of credit ... thinking March/April to recognize revenue ... no further impairment - DP cost structure ... Yvon said April break-even based on current pricing, current exchange rate, current MOFCOM - LQT ... nothing other than was stated in MDA ... strong order book, positive outlook, continuing improvements on waste rates/efficiences, targeting 8K tonnes ... although mentioned variable product mix ... no mention of any material Swiss Franc/Durasafe or Optical threads discussion That was about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECCO Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 OK, I hope there will be more info in the CC. Down 15% this morning, now a market cap under 40M$ CAD... How much lower can this go? 0$ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://seekingalpha.com/article/2081803-fortress-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://lethbridgeherald.com/business/2014/03/11/fortress-paper-survival-not-at-stake-despite-perfect-storm-in-q4-says-ceo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nary a word about Landqart in the Lethbridge Herald article... Think back 12 months ... Ugly times there ... A) Q4 Results Security Paper Products Segment (thousands of dollars, except for shipments, unaudited) Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2011 Sales 22,983 12,696 16,596 Operating loss (6,665) (8,872) (9,205) Shipments (tonnes) 1,688 1,207 1,045 The production of a previously delayed significant banknote order commenced during the third quarter of 2012 after it was re-instated and continued in the fourth quarter. An increase in operating efficiency is expected as a result of this increase in volume as waste rates decline and the process is optimized. Results in the fourth quarter of 2012 continue to be impacted by headwinds of a strong Swiss Franc, high raw material costs, and less than optimal production efficiency on the paper machines at the Landqart mill, in part as a result of the postponement of several major currencies. The Company continues to assess other strategic options at the Landqart mill, including the sale of non-core assets and expanding product mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obtuse_investor Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 From the conference call: Chad: I would also like to address the major topic and concern from the preliminary research reports that have come out this morning and late last night regarding our cash position. While the headline number for our cash position has dropped materially, I want to stress that a good portion of this is now in finished goods inventory and has been written down. We expect to convert this into sales and thus cash in due course. Anyone have access to these reports he mentioned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Good point: Q4 2013 Inventories Raw Materials 26,784 Work in Progress 1,167 Finished Goods 34,439 (already written down) Total inventories are up over $19 million over Q3 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Rbc cuts target to 1.75 basically, they don't trust the break even thing. Can't blame them I guess. Their bull case is duties get removed and cost come down, all this for 5 bucks. That is low I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc75 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm curious: Who here *does* trust the break-even prediction? The $5 bull case interesting. We'd be in a situation where FX is more favourable, Lanquart is EBITDA positive, cogen is online, the Thurso mill is at least as reliable, there are no duties, and lower cost structure is offsetting reduction in DP pricing. I don't expect this convergence of good fortune, but if it does come to fruition then how do you get to only $5 when you were previously at $5 in a much less favourable environment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 r.e. DP inventories/cash I asked IR about this yesterday ... sales pending are to Chinese customers (so it hasn't totally bottlenecked owing to the tariff issues). They didn't provide exact numbers, but based on Q&A of the conf call ... between the 3K DP already sold this quarter, the 7K of NBHK already sold this quarter, and the (most of?) the rest of the DP inventory which sounds to be on the dock to be sold either by end of this quarter or early next, I anticipate they will draw down the $19M inventory build-up in the quarter, and the build-up from Q3 as well ... so perhaps in the $20M to $25M range? As such, I see cash going back up (materially?) this quarter, as deferment of IQ loan principle repayment (and interest) would mean that cash burn (offset by Landqart EBITDA) relegated to: a) interest on all debentures b) Thurso employee costs c) corporate overhead On note about Landqart and liquidity ... it keeps getting more solid even without Durasafe. If/as it continues to improve, one lever they may be able to pull, if they had to, is to lever it's assets at the sub-level and get cash from that to enhance liquidity. That said ... MOFCOM tariff finalization and "show me" of Thurso efficiency/reliability/cost are the key drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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