lessthaniv Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Good summary TT& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Did anyone listen to the Q2 conference call. I know the game is over. The Chinese won and Fortress Paper lost. I am just wondering if management has noticed this yet. I would imagine Chad is probably trying to figure out a new bonus structure to try to grab some of that $40 million dollars left in the bank before creditors and operational losses eat it all up. I imagine he has come to grips with the fact that his stock holdings will never materialize into a retirement nest egg, so at his age, that bank balance is probably his last hope. That is the cynical side of my thinking anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 IQ loan and dissolving pulp price are the key here. The latter still deteriorating. Not too optimistic about the dp price. They need to term out the loan and possibly sell some stakes of Thurso asap. They can't really blame it all to the Chinese. Their delay and cost overrun are their to own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obtuse_investor Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Any reason for the sell off today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Any reason for the sell off today? Nothing in particular for today that I can see. But not surprised by the sell off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triedtestedand Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 a) CIBC downgraded FTP. Set new price target of $1.40. Fair bit of selling today via CIBC. Plausible correlation. b) Agree that keys for Thurso are IQ loan, and DP price, with latter defined as price realized by FTP (ie are there any customers they can actually sell to outside of China?) ... along with continuation of cost curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 En route for the CIBC target..now under 2$... What Chad will do? Or will another player buy them out soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Well, cant blame them for exiting. DP price still weak and company still losing money. If i am rfp, i would try to take over ftp now, pay them some premium, get the plant cheap for future upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Well, cant blame them for exiting. DP price still weak and company still losing money. If i am rfp, i would try to take over ftp now, pay them some premium, get the plant cheap for future upside. Right. Rfp. Thinking of Canfor Pulp (T.CFX) too, given the B.C. connections and Joe Nemeth on the board. Both can ride out the cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 So much for the debentures offering any safety. The 1st tranche are trading at 40 cents on the dollar today and yesterday a trade went through for 30 cents. WOW. So much for that wishful thinking article on them, that was posted a few weeks back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Let's say i agree with the article more than the sellers today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Well, cant blame them for exiting. DP price still weak and company still losing money. If i am rfp, i would try to take over ftp now, pay them some premium, get the plant cheap for future upside. Right. Rfp. Thinking of Canfor Pulp (T.CFX) too, given the B.C. connections and Joe Nemeth on the board. Both can ride out the cycle All rest on IQ. I take the fact they kept extending as a positive sign. But then, we still need good dp market. Risky but nothing new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptsyEagle Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 It all rests on the price of dissolving pulp. Until the DP price rises or their production costs decline to the point where they are net earnings positive (not EBITDA positive), this company is simply buying time with the $41 million they have in the bank. That amount of time is probably less then 2 years. At that time the ownership of this company will be transferred to the debenture holders as the common shareholders are diluted to almost nothing when the debentures are refinanced with stock in 2016. The IQ loans are a reasonable distance back in the minds of investors then the concerns about the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 In the meantime, maybe LandQart will get sold, just like Dresden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Hope they don't have to sell landquart. Still a distressed business there. Of course, unless a very good price. Didnt expect such sell off after the q as Thurso is finally operating fine. They could have break even if dp price is 10 15 dollar higher?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Surprise to see someone selling the debt at 40s. You get 4 or 5 coupons on those before dec 16. So the net cost will be around 30 bucks. V Seems cheap even if landquart is the only thing left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Well, I added some FTP.DB. I sold down quite a bit of commons in last couple months to add to some Canadian O&G (which btw, are equally dead). Now, I am thinking to buy some of it back. I mean can there be more bad news other than DP continues to be depressed? Potential positive news: IQ loan long term solution, if they manage to push the IQ debt out. They will have end of 2016 to try to turn this around. Sign up of non-Chinese customers Selling of part or all of Thurso Selling of part of all of Landquart Potential bad news: IQ refused to work things out. Some sort of debt restructure that dilute the existing equity (positive for debt) What are you guys doing? I know many are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 You might want to keep a copy of the 6.5% prospectus close..... If FTP goes to $1.40 as forecast; comes Dec 31 next year - those deb holders either receive 35M, or 65% of the coy after dilution. Asking for a roll-over, & forfeiture of control, is going to be expensive ;) SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 I should look closer. Is there equity value ratio covenant in there? Is there similar covenant in the other with maturity of 2019? Thanks for the tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 comes Dec 31 next year The exact date is Dec 31 2016 Now do you really think they won't go the bankruptcy path before then? They are on their way to run out of cash in 1 - 1 1/2 year from now. They have few options like paying coupon on debentures in stocks, but no way they can keep on with negative ebitda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 But for the debt holders, they probably don't mind if FTP turn the key in for Thurso. They can then get 50m cash + Landquart, probably will trade near par if that happen. The company is banking on DP price recovery coming next year. Should be more than 1-1.5 year before the cash run out but really depends on DP price, cost, and sale price obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sculpin Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 IQ - the Thurso plant is very important to the economy in this region. Would like to see the IQ loan swapped for say 50% equity interest in the Thurso plant - would be a win win for both FTP and IQ over the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Shortly after Dec 31,2016 deb holders would use their control, force the sale of Thurso & Landquart, & pay out the proceeds as a dividend. To stop it - management & remaining deb holders need to do a deal, or raise the cash to pay the deb off. Thing to keep in mind though is that if there is no deal - there is 65% dilution from deb conversion. $1.50 of market value today becomes $0.50 tomorrow if they cant do a deal in worsening conditions, within the next 28 months. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 SD, thanks. Got some more today. Hoping for some positive iq news. Dont think iq will take equity stake in thurso. But if they do, debt will jump big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 50centdollars Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Stock halted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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