enoch01 Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 Hm: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ebix-affiliate-goldman-sachs-agree-232504032.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 This could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 20, 2013 Author Share Posted June 20, 2013 Interesting indeed. Down 25% after hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 And that is the reason why a value investor should stay away from merger arbitrages with a spread of 1.4%. Sorry for those on the board who wanted to cash in. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTerm Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 I find the Bloomberg report interesting not illuminating: "The U.S. Attorney in Atlanta wrote in a letter that it was probing allegations of intentional misconduct, Ebix said yesterday in a statement. The company previously disclosed that it faced shareholder class-action lawsuits and a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission probe over the accuracy of the firm’s public statements to investors." From the way this and other news reports are worded it appears that the Atlanta investigation is in response to the shareholder lawsuit, which I find a bit odd. Then there is the use of the phrase 'intentional misconduct'; what could this refer to except tax evasion, embezzlement or fraudulent reporting (which I would think comes under the SEC not the federal prosecutor)? Then it goes on to state that Ebix previously disclosed an SEC reporting probe. What is being referred to here? I was under the impression that in response to the February Bloomberg article the company denied any knowledge of an ongoing investigation. So, if this is the reference, the probe is news to me. But if it refers to an earlier probe (that apparently went nowhere) the author is being at best misleading. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 You are right. I am confused too.I think Ebix should issue a press release clarifying the SEC probe. I know there was a class action law suit in Atlanta after the drop in share price.That typically happens after share drop of every company.There is nothing unusual about that law suite. I checked the SEC filings of Ebix.I do not see any new filing regarding SEC probe or any communication from SEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFValue Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 from Q1-10Q On April 16, 2013, the Company received a second subpoena from the SEC seeking additional documents in their formal, non-public fact-finding inquiry and investigation styled In the Matter of Ebix, Inc. (A-3318), which primarily relates to the issues raised in the matter styled In re: Ebix, Inc. Securities Litigation, Civil Action No. 1:11-CV-02400-RWS (N.D. Ga.). This follows the receipt by the Company on December 3, 2012 of the first subpoena from the SEC dated November 30, 2012, stating that the SEC is conducting this non-public fact-finding inquiry and investigation and seeking documents relating to the issues raised therein and in an online news article based on unnamed sources, published on November 3, 2012 speculating about the existence of such an investigation. The Company is cooperating fully with the SEC to provide the requested documents and otherwise assist in the SEC's review, and advised the Acquiring Parties of the existence of this matter as well as the open tax audit discussed in Note 6, prior to the execution of the Merger Agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTerm Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Thanks SFValue. I hadn't noticed that in the 10Q. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Wow...even in the midst of the earlier blistering short attacks it wasn't down to this level. I reckon the price insensitive merger arbs are selling this. Exacerbated by some margin calls too? Absurd. Just absurd. Blood in the street for sure. @LongTerm - any comments man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Wow...even in the midst of the earlier blistering short attacks it wasn't down to this level. I reckon the price insensitive merger arbs are selling this. Exacerbated by some margin calls too? Absurd. Just absurd. Blood in the street for sure. @LongTerm - any comments man? Do you think some of the litany of accounting issues listed by Gotham City Research could be legitimate? I'm the first to question the motives behind GCR...who are they, whose funding them, the MO is very similar to the attack at OSTK, etc. But I've read their two papers and I find that the number of issues that are in the 2nd paper are alarming. Either the entire board is incompetent when it comes to proofing their financial statements, or the CFO just publishes what he wants without re-reading his own work. Neither is a good sign! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTerm Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 My feeling is that the company has grown too fast and has too many disparate entities in too many different countries, combined with management tightness in areas they deem non-essential (like financial reporting!!). If I had to guess I would say that there are some problems that they probably need to slow down and address. But unless there is outright fraud I do think the cash flow is real and to me that's what counts. Forced selling? Bring it on! I like it when the arbs have to sell. Gives me a chance to buy at a discount. I love to buy at 50% of what Goldman was willing to pay until yesterday. Even if the company has to slow down, refocus and even pay some fines to clean up the mess I still think we're in bargain basement territory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 I say let's keep eye on the ball and ask ourselves: did the business fundamentally change in the last few weeks/days? Are customers leaving in droves? Did we find a smoking gun? We know Raina is a micro-manager and is obsessed with efficiency. Like the Bloomberg article said - he met with his controller and VP of finance every month to determine how revenue should be allocated. This does seems to insinuate manipulation but does not guarantee it. Like LongTerm said, sustainability of cash flow is all that matters. The company is already the most hated it's ever been. Investigations, bad press, lawsuits, breakup of an acquisition. How worse is it going to get? And for what it's worth let's not forget that Raina has hundreds of millions at stake here (likely his entire if not majority of his net worth) as he has steered his ship through some hostile waters. Even in the Goldman deal, he didn't want completely out, but wanted to keep his stake and just take his company off the public market. If he's fudging numbers and is guilty of fraud (among other things) he'd probably know this and if so, he'd probably want to get out by handing over the bag to Goldman. The only reason he chose to keep a stake in his company in the Goldman deal was because he not only believes his company will see another day, but sees more potential for a bigger payout in the future. Disclosure - Long EBIX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSArbitrage Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 EBIX getting toasted today after fraud probe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 lots of folks with proven bs detectors think this is a fraud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 lots of folks with proven bs detectors think this is a fraud. Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-20/ebix-s-raina-loses-magic-touch-as-u-s-probes-accounting.html Pretty good overview of this whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 lots of folks with proven bs detectors think this is a fraud. Who? Gotham City Research @GothamResearch 6h ”This is not an accident waiting to happen -- it’s an accident in motion,” Lynn Turner former chief accountant of the SEC, on $EBIX Retweeted by LST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 lots of folks with proven bs detectors think this is a fraud. Who? Gotham City Research @GothamResearch 6h ”This is not an accident waiting to happen -- it’s an accident in motion,” Lynn Turner former chief accountant of the SEC, on $EBIX Retweeted by LST Peter, how are these guys proven? Here is their site. http://gothamcityresearch.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 lots of folks with proven bs detectors think this is a fraud. Who? Gotham City Research @GothamResearch 6h ”This is not an accident waiting to happen -- it’s an accident in motion,” Lynn Turner former chief accountant of the SEC, on $EBIX Retweeted by LST Peter, how are these guys proven? Here is their site. http://gothamcityresearch.com/ Sorry about nitpicking but it's not really "these guys." It's just this one guy (Daniel Yu) http://i.imgur.com/PGS1vHq.png http://thelongshorttrader.com/ The name makes it seem like the firm consists of reputed and informed team in order to bolster its credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha231616967560 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 For me, Goldman Sachs (I.e. exiting the merger) is the most compelling commentary on Ebix to date. In GS we have a market participant with premium access to Ebix management and open access to their books. And at the price they were paying, if they thought the numbers were legitimate, they had a whole lot to gain. But they decided that the allegations (the shareholder lawsuits, which are the basis of the US atty investigation) have merit. To me, that is a commentary worth listening to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 fair enough, sidd. ;) However, according to the site, multiple people work there (well, if we're nitpicking grammar haha). http://gothamcityresearch.com/about/ "As of the publication date of our articles, we may have long or short equity positions in the companies covered." :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tooskinneejs Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 lots of folks with proven bs detectors think this is a fraud. Who? From the Bloomberg article: "Still, questions abound about the quality of Ebix’s earnings, according to accounting experts such as Joseph Carcello, co-founder of the Corporate Governance Center at the University of Tennessee." and... "Marc Cohodes, a short-seller who helped expose accounting frauds at Lernout & Hauspie, Aremisoft and Computer Associates, questioned the quality of Ebix’s earnings and the motivations behind the Goldman Sachs deal. “In my experience uncovering and dealing with some of the great software frauds in the past, Ebix could rise to that level,” Cohodes said." and... "The willingness of the board’ audit committee to allow Raina to ratify the company’s internal controls is alarming, said Lynn Turner, former chief accountant of the SEC. ”This is not an accident waiting to happen -- it’s an accident in motion,” Turner said." To me, this situation is no different than betting on red or black at the roulette table. You're either going to double your money or lose it all. And the odds don't appear to favor one outcome over the other (that's being generous to the long side). So the question is this: is betting on black or red at the roulette table investing or is it gambling (i.e. speculating)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 lots of folks with proven bs detectors think this is a fraud. Who? Gotham City Research @GothamResearch 6h ”This is not an accident waiting to happen -- it’s an accident in motion,” Lynn Turner former chief accountant of the SEC, on $EBIX Retweeted by LST Peter, how are these guys proven? Here is their site. http://gothamcityresearch.com/ it's not just them. it's old pros who have seen frauds come and go (down the drain). I stress OLD. their bs detectors are "deadly". having an infallible bs detector is a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobp Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Ebix Worth No More Than $8, Likely Headed To $0 -- Gotham City on Seeking Alpha http://seekingalpha.com/article/1514502-ebix-worth-no-more-than-8-likely-headed-to-0?source=yahoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 lots of folks with proven bs detectors think this is a fraud. Who? Gotham City Research @GothamResearch 6h ”This is not an accident waiting to happen -- it’s an accident in motion,” Lynn Turner former chief accountant of the SEC, on $EBIX Retweeted by LST Peter, how are these guys proven? Here is their site. http://gothamcityresearch.com/ it's not just them. it's old pros who have seen frauds come and go (down the drain). I stress OLD. their bs detectors are "deadly". having an infallible bs detector is a gift. Again, who? Which old pros? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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