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Fairholme/Berkowitz


rjstc

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  • 5 weeks later...

Seems in denial re: Sears

 

I absolutely knew he was going to say St. Joe when asked what he'd buy more of, if he could.

 

He may redeem himself (all Flagler like) in NW FL.

I love the area (haven't been over towards Destin / Apalachicola in a decade or more but I know the more rural beach communities are super nice!)

 

Seritage could help in his redemption too.

 

I'm not qualified to comment on Fannie & Freddie.

 

Govt asked him - “Why are you the only guy who owns AIG & why do you own so much of it?”

Now the world is asking “same Q re: Sears”

 

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“Just because I’m contrary doesn’t mean I’m right”

 

“People have to agree with me or I look wrong for extended periods, until I look right again" (I rearranged his words but this was the gist...)

 

“Keep things businesslike & be long term oriented.”

 

“I eat my own cooking”

 

Seems like a standup guy who may or may not be wrong sometimes.

 

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I wonder if BB knows how to relax?

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I haven't done a deep-dive performance analysis but was familiar with Fairholme in early 2000's. Tech and growth hit hard for a couple of years whereas Fairholme had things like Markel/Berkshire that were not hit hard. I'd guess relative performance in 2000/2001 alone was very profound for Fairholme relative to S&P 500. Longleaf knocked it out of the park during that era as well. The 15-year performance leaves out those early 2000's years.

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A crude look on google finance comparing FAIRX to the S&P 500  in the Jan 2000 - June 2002 (30 months) has Fairholme + 48% and S&P -37%.  $100 turned into either $148 or $63.  That's likely where the biggest difference comes from. 

 

Approx 2.5X the S&P for the current 15 year historical starting point. 

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  • 3 months later...

He just said in fairx conference call that sears worth $95/share and sears Canada worth $7.

 

Since 2017-07-06, Bruce has been dumping SRSC aggressively! Maybe he changed his mind.

[*]

SC 13D/A 2017-07-06 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 21,468,056 -94,918 N/A

SC 13D/A 2017-07-27 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 21,433,443 -34,613 N/A

SC 13D/A 2017-08-04 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 19,034,637 -2,398,806 N/A

SC 13D/A 2017-08-18 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 17,241,837 -1,792,800 N/A

SC 13G/A 2017-08-24 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 16,544,647 -697,190 N/A

SC 13G/A 2017-08-30 SEARS CANADA INC COMMON SHARES SRSC 8,811,785 -7,732,862 N/A

[*]

Who would trust Berkowitz's word now after he has abandoned his value principles of the 90s and early 2000s. Remember when he talked publicly of his intent to hold Pfizer for a long time right before quietly dumping it...

 

https://www.forbes.com/2009/08/21/berkowitz-fairholme-pfizer-intelligent-investing-buffett.html

 

And we have Pfizer. We have Forest Drugs, Forest Labs. We have Humana , and WellPoint, the health insurers

 

How has the health care sector done vs. Sears Holdings since 2009?

 

Berkowitz is just another Warren wannabe who had his time in the sun and is now in the wannabe graveyard with all the rest.

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  • 3 months later...

There isn’t much left once he got rid of his losers. St Joe looks like a dog to me as well.

 

This area of north Florida is really nice and has a lot more leisurely pace than Miami.

 

Maybe he's planning on becoming a big fish in a small pond (the yacht will look kind of ridiculous so he may have to scale that down a bit.)

 

---

 

Is this anything?

 

http://www.washingtonprime.com

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There isn’t much left once he got rid of his losers. St Joe looks like a dog to me as well.

 

This area of north Florida is really nice and has a lot more leisurely pace than Miami.

 

Maybe he's planning on becoming a big fish in a small pond (the yacht will look kind of ridiculous so he may have to scale that down a bit.)

 

---

 

Is this anything?

 

http://www.washingtonprime.com

 

WPG is a B (or lower ) mall operator, optically cheap, but I would rather invest in Reits that one better properties, like KIM or a play like SRG. The mall sector is a battleground right now and I would rather  own  Reits that own better quality assets in this situation.

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  • 3 months later...

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