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GS - Goldman Sachs


Viking

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Full year results obviously look great with revenue up big and per share earnings up ~20%... Q4 maybe not as much... strip out the tax legislation impact and per share earnings were down 15% even with a 3% reduction in average shares out...

 

Check out page 16 of the earnings release: https://www.goldmansachs.com/media-relations/press-releases/current/pdfs/2018-q4-results.pdf

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Book  value hasn’t grown much over the years, but post the financial crisis, GS has become a cannibal. Their share count maxed out in 2010 at 526M shares and now sits at 371M shares. Their ROE has been a bit over 10% over the years, but net earnings yields  were lower due to fines, similar to what other banks experienced. one can argue, if these fines are a cost of doing business or not.

 

The tax reduction alone should improve the ROE by 10-15%, I think, again similar to other banks. If you by a company with a ROE of 11-12% at <0.9x tangible book and this company is a rational capital allocator (which I think GS is) then one should do OK over time. If they can do even better than that in terms of ROE, this could become quite a home run.

 

(Edited for typos)

 

 

This is a good summary, and at $182 GS looks good here. I added today.

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Book  value hasn’t grown much over the years, but post the financial crisis, GS has become a cannibal. Their share count maxed out in 2010 at 526M shares and now sits at 371M shares. Their ROE has been a bit over 10% over the years, but net earnings yields  were lower due to fines, similar to what other banks experienced. one can argue, if these fines are a cost of doing business or not.

 

The tax reduction alone should improve the ROE by 10-15%, I think, again similar to other banks. If you by a company with a ROE of 11-12% at <0.9x tangible book and this company is a rational capital allocator (which I think GS is) then one should do OK over time. If they can do even better than that in terms of ROE, this could become quite a home run.

 

(Edited for typos)

 

 

This is a good summary, and at $182 GS looks good here. I added today.

 

I sold my position build last year, but I agree, at these levels, it starts to become interesting again. I do think it is quite interesting  in terms of watching how they go from Wall Street to Main Street and consumers (Marcus etc) in their business model, to make their earnings more predictable. They are still early in this transformation, but if this gains traction, then the GS in 10 years will look liquide a bit differently than it does look today.

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Goldman's CEO was just on CNBC.

 

My, how things have changed from the last crisis. At this point in the GFC they were screwing Burry on his marks, getting short housing, and eventually making a killing (2009 was a record breaking year); and on their way to becoming a corporate pariah.

 

Today it's 100% about helping employees, the community, and small businesses.

 

Remarkable. They are probably better citizens.......but maybe not as good an investment as they were in 2009.

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My, how things have changed from the last crisis. At this point in the GFC they were screwing Burry on his marks, getting short housing, and eventually making a killing (2009 was a record breaking year); and on their way to becoming a corporate pariah.

 

Probably still doing that in the background.  ;D

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Remarkable. They are probably better citizens.......but maybe not as good an investment as they were in 2009.

 

All the banks are doing it. When the gov't bails you out to the tune of billions, trillions, you need to earn it back.

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Buffett is pretty much completely out of Goldman Sachs selling 10M shares this quarter and over 6M shares last quarter. I think he bought most of his shares Q4 2013. Any idea what the thinking is? Don't think it is coronavirus related as he started his selling last quarter and probably finished his selling before he figured out the virus was a big deal.

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Buffett is pretty much completely out of Goldman Sachs selling 10M shares this quarter and over 6M shares last quarter. I think he bought most of his shares Q4 2013. Any idea what the thinking is? Don't think it is coronavirus related as he started his selling last quarter and probably finished his selling before he figured out the virus was a big deal.

 

I don't think he ever loved Goldman Sachs (at least not as much as he loved WFC before the fake account scandal). Investment banks have become a lot less profitable than it was in the past. Goldman used to be the smartest guys in the room and they made money doing crazy things. I'm not sure if they still are the smartest guys in the room, but regulations prevent them from doing crazy things any more, so it doesn't really matter. Goldman is dipping their toes into retail banking, which means they will probably never get the same returns they used to get, and if they are going to go that route, Buffett prefers his other banks to Goldman.

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Buffett is pretty much completely out of Goldman Sachs selling 10M shares this quarter and over 6M shares last quarter. I think he bought most of his shares Q4 2013. Any idea what the thinking is? Don't think it is coronavirus related as he started his selling last quarter and probably finished his selling before he figured out the virus was a big deal.

 

He exercised the warrants in 2013 but he chose cash-less exercise instead of paying $115 / share for a full $5 Billion worth of stock. So the shares were “free” in a sense - although that’s not how accounting treats the cost basis.

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