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bmichaud

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TxLaw,

 

Here is the news on the story on the AT&T's acquisition of NextWave:

 

http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2012/08/att-buys-spectrum-next-to-satellite-hopes-fcc-will-let-them-use-it/

 

AT&T said it would pay $50 million for NextWave and another $550 million to pay off NextWave's outstanding debt. AT&T is hoping to get approval for the acquisition from the Justice Department and FCC by the end of this year, but deploying WCS spectrum to boost AT&T's 4G-LTE capacity will take another three years, the company said.

 

Like I said last May, SPECTRUM is a FINITE ASSET!

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To quote a very famous fund manager who is widely followed here and someone I respect greatly as my friend, "Head, I win; tail, I don't lose much." 

 

CLWR is in a very sweet position right now.  I just hope the management at S and CLWR don't blow their big opportunities.

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Some coverage explaining the "spectrum apocalypse" to newbies:

 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57488618-94/wireless-spectrum-what-it-is-and-why-you-should-care/

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57488596-94/the-coming-wireless-spectrum-apocalypse-and-how-it-hits-you/

 

Of course, calling it an "apocalypse" is a bit much, but I guess you gotta catch the attention of readers somehow.

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TxLaw,

 

This just hit me like a big rig truck after I read this article below.  Why didn't I think of this earlier?  It seems that all of that rumor about Dish Network investing in CLWR is as not as farfetched as we thought. 

 

http://www.cedmagazine.com/news/2012/08/dish-mum-on-clearwire-investment-rumors?qt-recent_blogs=0

 

Here is why:

 

Clearwire holds some 160 MHz of spectrum in the 2.6 GHz band in the country’s top 100 markets. Dish Network is waiting for FCC approval for their use 40 MHz of satellite spectrum it holds in the 2 GHz AWS-4 band for a land-based LTE network. If Dish could get the unpaired 20 MHz of AWS-3 as well. A 40 MHz downlink could deliver  at least 120 Mbps.

 

On top of that, Clearwire currently has the infrastructure in place that Dish Networks could utilize.  On the other hand, Verizon must first build their nationwide AWS infrastructure to deliver LTE if the FCC approves their AWS spectrum from the MSOs. Then, we have AT&T.  AT&T doesn’t have any AWS spectrum. They just acquired some 20 MHz of 2.3 GHz spectrum from NextWave for LTE expansion, but towers, back-haul and infrastructure to support it will take years to build.

 

This is looking prettier for CLWR & S than I had originally postulated.

 

 

 

 

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Much appreciated analysis on the technical side, brker_guy. 

 

We have discussed Ergen's possible involvement in S/CLWR before, of course.  Anyone can just search through this thread to see our discussions.  Ever since I saw that Ergen had bought up DBSD and Terrestar debt and acquired spectrum through workouts, I have suspected that Ergen would either flip the spectrum for a great profit or get into the wireless provider space.  Naturally, S/CLWR would be a necessary partner for a battle in the wireless space, given the finiteness of spectrum, which you have pointed out time and time again.

 

Charlie Ergen from the May 7 DISH CC:

 

And I think you can expect us to be conservative in how we enter the wireless business as well, but that doesn't mean that you don't go out and do things. And certainly, our customers today, we're in a mature industry from a fixed video perspective, but certainly our customers are broadband customers and wireless customers from other companies and so it makes sense for us to tie all that altogether in one offering for our customers because it reduces churn and gives us a chance to enter new markets and certainly can increase our ARPU and our margin. So the cost of -- one of the nice things about wireless is there's not a programming cost there. The cost of air is not necessarily going up, but the cost of programming is. So it makes sense for us to diversify and get in the total fixed and wireless business. That's pretty conservative strategy quite frankly. There's a wide range of things we could do. We could build it alone on the one hand. And on the other hand, to the extent that we weren't allowed to get in the business, have enough flexibility, we could sell the asset. Neither one of those is likely -- is as likely because they're at the far end of extremes of what you might do. I think we're more than likely going to be somewhere in between that where we work -- assuming we get flexibility and enter the marketplace and assuming the timing to that is fairly quickly, obviously, there's a point in time when we just couldn't enter the marketplace because the market's passed us by. But assuming that the timing and flexibility are allowed, it probably makes sense to work with people who are already in the business. They already have towers. They already have relationships. They already have spectrum. They already have handsets. It makes sense to work with them because we bring something that makes the transition for them, particularly to LTE, much easier, so -- and we also bring video in a way that they may not be able to do themselves.

 

Charlie Ergen from the Aug. 8 DISH CC:

 

In May, we entered into an agreement with Qualcomm to enhance the development of the 2-gigahertz platform at the chipset level. This will in time bring device and infrastructure players into the picture. As we mentioned on our last call, in order to be prepared once we do receive regulatory clarity, we've been actively developing relationships with companies throughout the wireless sector.

 

. . .

 

We clearly are in a situation in the United States where you have 2 main players in AT&T and Verizon. It's -- everybody else who's in the industry today has their own set of challenges, if you're not named AT&T and Verizon. So it's unclear exactly how the FCC wants to address that.

 

. . .

 

If we're allowed into the business and the timing is such that we can enter the business where it hasn't run away from us, then I think that, that's a real growth engine for our company in the future and something that we're prepared to do and something that we spent the last 3 years, 4 years preparing ourselves for and have become pretty knowledgeable about the industry and about the things we could do to change it and make it better.

 

From one of my posts from last year (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/clwr-clearwire/msg57941/?topicseen#msg57941):

 

Something tells me Charlie Ergen has been buying up CLWR debt and may somehow get involved in a New Clearwire situation.

 

Wouldn't it be interesting if S/CLWR and DISH teamed up to battle the T-Rex, VZ, and Comcast juggernauts?  And what would DTV do in that case?  Would they want in on the action?

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Wouldn't it be interesting if S/CLWR and DISH teamed up to battle the T-Rex, VZ, and Comcast juggernauts?  And what would DTV do in that case?  Would they want in on the action?

 

TxLaw, thank you for digging up all of those wonderful transcripts up from the DISH's CC in May.  That was really cool! 

 

I don't know if you know, but in the latest 10Q of DISH, they disclosed a $400MIL investment in an entity.  That's why Mr. Market has been speculating that it was CLWR.  So, based on what has been said by Ergen and by these lines of thought that you have highlighted, I am now convinced that it was CLWR that DISH invested in.  They get more bangs for their bucks with CLWR vs. what they could get with T-Mobile. 

 

I think DTV will have to find a way to response now.  They are being left in the dusts.  First, they got outsmart by DISH and the "Autohop" feature on the Set-Top-Box.  Now, they are getting outgunned by DISH on the wireless spectrum space. 

 

Warren's lieutenants should have bought into DISH instead of DTV last quarter.

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Looks like the iPhone 5 might be coming to a CLWR network real soon.

 

LTE iPhone rumors gain momentum as Korean operators ‘confirm’ talks with Apple over 4G support

http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/08/15/rumours-lte-iphone-gain-momentum-korean-operators-confirm-talks-apple-4g-support/

 

 

"Qualcomm has already begun work on a universal LTE chip that supports a total of 7 frequency bands: three below 1GHz, three above, and one ultra-high 2.5 GHz+ frequency."

 

http://www.qualcomm.com/media/releases/2012/02/27/qualcomm-third-generation-lte-chipsets-are-first-support-hspa-release-10-l

 

"On November 2011, the first TD-LTE/WCDMA/GSM Multi‐mode MiFi successfully passed testing with TD

LTE network deployed by Huawei. During the test, a few tablets and laptops were connected to MiFi through WiFi to share high applications from TD ‐LTE netork. The chipset was provided by Qualcomm and this multi-mode MiFi was co-developed by CMRI and Quanta"

 

http://www.lte-tdd.org/sites/default/files/TD-LTE%20Industry%20Briefing%20-%20Jan%202012.pdf

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While I have increased my investment in Clearwire substantially recently, I remain concerned by what could happen with Sprint, Dish and T-Mobile. Remember Lightsquared? Could Sprint partner with Dish and leave CLWR in the dust once again? Who is going to dance with who? This arrangement with Sprint where they control 50% is hand locking the company in my view. There is a reason why Verizon and AT&T always seem to find spectrum elsewhere such as with the cable cos and more recently Nextwave.

 

I am also concerned by the so called spectrum crunch. I had to buy a new phone recently because the old one took a swim and the salesman did not seem to find huge appeal for 4G phones, at least not yet. Reason being that 4G LTE networks are not fully implemented yet and people finding 3G speed all right. So demand for spectrum could take still more time to develop. While it will come, we also have the government freeing up more airwaves and technology such as white space could distrupt Clearwire's spectrum value. TDD-LTE adoption in the U.S. and which airwaves is also a concern.

 

While I like the asset value, the company structure, how spectrum will be monetized and things that we can't really foresee bring a lot of risks. Lots of upside, but big risks too. Sometimes I wish we could go bankrupt and truly auction off the spectrum at current market prices. Building the current network is putting the company at risk financially and I always wonder who is going to use it. Let's put it this way, I don't feel that we have too many friends based on recent history.

 

Cardboard

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Cardboard,

 

So what made you decided to "increase" your investment in CLWR substantially?  What was the catalyst that made you decided to buy more shares?  I would love to hear your thoughts on how you came to the conclusion of buying more when you had doubts.

 

What are your concerns about Sprint, Dish and T-Mobile?  From my own news source, T-Mobile is looking for a buyer for its US assets.  Sprint doesn't have the money to do it.  Dish has made an investment commitment to a carrier already, and as TxLaw has laid out the facts that is very likely that the investment was with CLWR because it's big bang for the bucks for them.  I think you should go back a few posts that TxLaw, Bmichaud and I have posted on CLWR and DISH recently to see for yourself. 

 

"Remember LightSquared?"  What about LightSquared?  The reason LightSquared got squash was that it was interferring with the most important asset our nation has: GPS.  The US Govt(USG) has learned from this LightSquared debacle that spectrum is a very rare asset, and that they ought to learn how to share. 

 

Regarding Sprint pulling another trick on CLWR, I think you might check out the last few analysts' meetings that Sprint has held where CLWR was present.  In so many words, Sprint and CLWR are now joined at the hips.  The 2 need one another more than ever. 

 

I am a little confused about what you claim as your fears of "spectrum crunch", "LTE network buildout", "TDD-LTE adoption", and "companies joining forces", but yet, you increased your investment in CLWR?  Isn't that illogical?

 

brker_guy

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I increased my position mainly because my portfolio has gone up a lot in recent months, I had a sizeable cash position and needed more into CLWR, which had gone down a lot, to make it worthwhile. Either it moves the needle or it is gone. The Nextwave acquisition by AT&T of "similar" spectrum also influenced my thinking. I still see a lot of upside in CLWR as I mentioned so I wanted more.

 

Reading your post, I don't know what makes you apparently upset about what I said. With any investment, there is risk and reward and all I wanted to point out is that risk on this one of intrinsic value being much different than what we see now is pretty high. So IMO, the reward or upside needs to be significant to justify an investment in CLWR. And I think that you guys may want to think a little more about risk vs just reward. We were at $5 last year, now sub $2. The market is not that stupid. It is pretty clear that the ultimate value in CLWR shares has gone down in the last year due to very dilutive equity issuances.

 

We also have no clue as to how the spectrum value will be realized. Management has not sold any of it so far, even the excess which they keep pointing out, giving us no indication whatsoever as to how much it is really worth. We can't even answer if they "can" sell it with Sprint effectively controlling the company. And, Sprint keeps on building its own 4G LTE network. So what is giving you so much confidence that they will never entertain a deal with another firm than CLWR or that they will not try to buy us out on the very cheap? They fooled us once already. Regarding DISH, it is again speculation that they bought CLWR debt. It seems like sound speculation, but we can't tell for sure. And while the market is happy about it, why didn't they buy shares instead which are being given away if they really bought our securities? Are they thinking that they stand a better chance with the debt to make more money and possibly try to get control of our spectrum in a reorganization?

 

So my decision was mainly based on capital allocation and the fact that CLWR shares in a bankruptcy should still yield a much higher amount than the current price, although quite a bit lower than it would have been last year and this thank to Sprint who really acted like a bunch of imbecile. And if they don't go bankrupt and things start to be a little more positive with the utilization of their network, then the value will be higher than my bankruptcy value. What this ultimate value will be remains very hard for me to assess. There is competition, technology, speed of adoption, various alliances, liquidity issues, etc.

 

So while it may seem stupid for me to add to this position based on my fears which by the way are highlighted in the risk section of their disclosure, I see the "range" of values and potential outcomes as attractive at this time vs current price.

 

Cardboard

 

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Reading your post, I don't know what makes you apparently upset about what I said. 

 

Do I sound upset about what I said in my last post?  I don't think so.  I was trying to understand your logic as how you danced around the topics of  fears on "spectrum crunch", "LTE network buildout", "TDD-LTE adoption", and "companies joining forces", but yet, you decided to increase your investment in CLWR.  If those are perceived risks to you, why buy more?  Aren't you afraid of permanent loss of capital? 

 

With any investment, there is risk and reward and all I wanted to point out is that risk on this one of intrinsic value being much different than what we see now is pretty high.
 

 

If the risk on this one is being pretty high, why bother buying?  That's all I am saying. 

 

And I think that you guys may want to think a little more about risk vs just reward.
 

 

Oh, with CLWR and S, I know EXACTLY what I am getting myself into.  I have been buying CLWR from $4 all the way down to $1.  So, I know what the risks and rewards from the very get-go...  I know all of the risks and what the likely scenarios would be.  As I remember it, you said something like this?  So, I am not mad; just wanting to understand your logic.  8)

 

The Clearwire thesis appears broken IMO. It is a hostage of Sprint which is lead by a total loser. Then, you have Verizon and AT&T appearing to team up together to destroy the rest of the industry. Unless the FCC and the Justice Department wake-up soon or if there is a very deep pocketed player supporting Sprint, it is hard for me to see monetization of Clearwire's assets under a scenario that will be profitable for us shareholders.

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/clwr-clearwire/msg74775/#msg74775

 

We also have no clue as to how the spectrum value will be realized.

 

I believe I have a clue about how CLWR's spectrum value will be worth.  I don't think you know, but I do know what it ought to be worth. 

 

So what is giving you so much confidence that they will never entertain a deal with another firm than CLWR or that they will not try to buy us out on the very cheap? They fooled us once already. Regarding DISH, it is again speculation that they bought CLWR debt. It seems like sound speculation, but we can't tell for sure. And while the market is happy about it, why didn't they buy shares instead which are being given away if they really bought our securities? Are they thinking that they stand a better chance with the debt to make more money and possibly try to get control of our spectrum in a reorganization?

 

First, it's my understanding of the landscape of the spectrum of what S has and needs that gives me the confidence in CLWR and S relationship will mature going forward.  Like I said earlier, S doesn't have the capital to take out T-Mobile like AT&T tried to do.  S also can't merge with AT&T or VZ either due to anti-trust issues.  They are caught between a rock and a hard place.  Also, the MSOs are cashing in on their Spectrum Co consortium to align themselves with VZ.  So, what are other options does S have left other than to amend their relationship with CLWR and help CLWR roll out its network.  I don't know if you have heard this presentation by S and CLWR yet, but it's worth listening to:

 

http://cc.talkpoint.com/well001/071812a_hr/?entity=1_X5JEDJ6

 

http://corporate.clearwire.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=691072

 

Also, you might want to read this:

 

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/sprint-clearwires-lte-will-pinpoint-high-traffic-areas/2012-07-18

 

As for your comments about DISH, I think you might want to investigate the facts. 

 

Fact 1:  Sprint yielded its position as being a majority shareholder of CLWR to open the doors for other investors to come in to help CLWR. 

 

Fact 2:  Take a look at the filing that DirecTV, a DISH competitor,  made directly with the FCC complaining about the ownership at CLWR.

 

Fact 3:  Have a read of DISH's 10Q filing and also read what management at DISH have been saying about their plan of being a LTE service provider.

 

Finally, you might want to re-read what I posted about DISH's plan a few days ago:

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/clwr-clearwire/msg82916/#msg82916

 

And last but not least, I find there is a big flaw in your logic of claiming that CLWR's spectrum worth more in bankruptcy than it is now if you don't know how to value it correctly. 

 

Just my 2 cents...

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I think I've said this before, but I really do believe that the CLWR assets together are worth more than sold off piecemeal, though I certainly wouldn't object to them selling off excess spectrum at a nice price. 

 

I also think it is highly probable that DISH has a position in CLWR debt.  But why debt versus common? 

 

The most obvious reason is that if S/CLWR can't get their act together, Ergen can scoop up valuable assets in BK, having higher priority over the likes of the cablecos and other strategic investors. 

 

But another reason could be that it would be beneficial for Ergen to hold much (if not most) of the debt in case he wants to make an equity investment in a combined S/CLWR, which would need to undergo a deleveraging stock for stock transaction.  Ergen understands that time is of the essence in terms of making sure that anyone not named AT&T or Verizon runs away in the market, leaving potential strong competitors (read Sprint) behind.  Therefore, if Ergen is serious about getting into the wireless biz, he might consider exchanging debt for S equity (in a S swallows CLWR situation), extracting a favorable tie up deal that allows S/CLWR to focus on building out their network and gives DISH the ability to create a hybrid satellite/LTE network on which he can distribute (or sling) his content bundles (including Blockbuster).

 

Just some musings on what could potentially occur.

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And Brker_guy, your reply to that old post of mine that you posted:

 

"I came to the similar conclusion the last few days, Cardboard, when I read about VZ's plan to sell some of their prime spectrum and AT&T's CEO coming out to say that spectrum is plenty which is a total lie.

 

So, unless someone can step up and rid ourselves of the total loser in charge of S, we are toast.

 

I voted for everyone on Sprint's BOD except for the loser, Hesse."

 

You sounded quite different about the situation than what I read today. I think it is hard to argue that we ended up both wrong by buying shares in the $4 range last year. We paid too much. The potential return was good, but nowhere near where it was close to $1 lately. We paid a price that was assuming a "safer" or more guaranteed return than a price that included all the risks that we could not or did not foresee properly. If I have learned something in the stock market over the years it is to wait to pay a ridiculous price instead of an attractive one. That is when generally all risks are visible, all screw ups have been made and when it can only get better from here. Anyhow, you may not consider having made a mistake, but I do.

 

Anyway, so I will read the articles and presentations that you posted, although I think that I have seen most already. Regarding bankruptcy, I never said that it would increase the value of the spectrum. However, it would allow this value to be realized, debt to be paid off and us to receive our share of what is left. On the other hand, if they continue expanding their network, don't sell any spectrum, keep issuing a ton of shares to fund the build-out and can't sign big profitable customers then there is always a potential of these shares being worth close to zero. The probability of that is small, but it is not nil.

 

Cardboard

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Something to share with you guys:

 

http://www.telecomramblings.com/2012/08/verizons-spectrum-grab-enters-home-stretch-as-dish-simmers/#more-17881

 

If VZ is able to get their hands on the MSOs AWS spectrum, you can bet that Ergens will make a big push to get the FCC to let him launch his LTE network.  Then, I think the news will hit that DISH and CLWR/S are in cahoots.

 

DISH needs a wireless partner.  They can not do ANYTHING with just 20MHz of spectrum.  That's like spitting into a can.

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  • 1 month later...

Well, maybe that the suffering for shareholders of Clearwire is finally over as it appears that Softbank wants to buy close to 75% of Sprint and is especially interested to get Clearwire spectrum in full.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/10/11/clearwire-shares-jumping-as-sprint-talks-to-softbank/?mod=yahoo_hs

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2012/10/11/why-clearwire-stock-is-up-30-on-sprint-acquisition-news/?mod=yahoo_hs

 

IMO, this means that the auction for that spectrum has just begun. There is no way that AT&T and Dish will simply let that spectrum slip away to Softbank a Japanese company without attempting some deal. They were able to wait and let Clearwire get weaker and weaker financially (Sprint was playing the same game) until making a decent offer for some of that spectrum, but now time is up.

 

Also, no one owns more than 50% of Clearwire at the moment, although Sprint could easily pull it off by buying Comcast and TWC stake, but now that there is a bidder, they may ask for a higher price than what the market offered. This means that the board of Clearwire will need to maximize value for minority shareholders, Comcast and others, if an offer is put on the table by someone else than Sprint.

 

Also, letting Clearwire go bankrupt and auctioning off the assets does not seem an acceptable solution to Softbank as they apparently want all the spectrum. IMO, Sprint and Dish likely thought that they could get more than enough spectrum in a reorganization and could wash their hands from all the Clearwire debt. Softbank seems to think differently and would have to take control of Clearwire debt if they really want to acquire full control. Under most scenarios, I think that this bodes quite well. The biggest risk IMO, is a creeping takeover of Clearwire by Sprint/Softbank where they squeeze out minority shareholders overtime and offering them a small premium and a very low value for the spectrum. The protection here should come from Clearwire board and its investors as they see that previous spectrum sales indicate a rough and conservative value of $3 a share after paying all debts and assuming no value for the existing network.

 

Finally, I cannot help but despise that stupid Jim Cramer who is busy bashing Clearwire this morning while pumping Sprint. I hope he is short along with his cohort.

 

Cardboard

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This is really interesting.  I certainly wasn't expecting Masayoshi Son to swoop in.  He's a really interesting guy, and the only Japanese stock I've ever really taken a look into other than Sony or Komatsu is Softbank.  He's like the Bill Gates/Steve Jobs of Japan.

 

Cardboard, I think you may be right.  If Softbank really is interested in Sprint, CLWR BK is less likely because I'm thinking Son will want to take advantage of utilizing CLWR's spectrum position.  Softbank gets that the 2.5 GHz band is becoming the most used across the globe. 

 

We need brker_guy's input.

 

Let's hope the bidding starts.

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I have read two more interesting fact/theories this morning regarding the interest of Softbank for Sprint and Clearwire.

 

Softbank was a pioneer in Japan carrying the IPhone, so their relationship with Apple is more developed or similar to the one with AT&T in the U.S. Apparently, they could realize a fair bit of cost savings by combining their purchasing power.

 

Also, Softbank has invested heavily to develop TDD-LTE on the same bandwidth as Clearwire. With the U.S. being on FDD-LTE as implemented by the U.S. duopoly of AT&T and Verizon, there is a natural tendency for chipset and network manufacturers to slow things down a bit and to charge more since there is not just one standard at the moment. Now, having a strong third player in the U.S. on TDD-LTE and at 2.6 Ghz and with many other large players globally moving to that, it puts pressure on the U.S. duopoly to either adopt or eventually face higher costs on devices and network to keep their own standard. The problem is that they don't have that 2.6 Ghz spectrum, so the pressure on them grows if a viable competitor exists. They may or may not have made a choice yet about the cost/savings of staying on their own standard or developing a TDD-LTE at other frequencies, but it starts to look like Beta vs VHS. 

 

Cardboard

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TxLaw and Cardboard,

 

I don't know if you guys remember a few months ago, I posted this link:

 

http://www.lte-tdd.org/sites/default/files/TD-LTE%20Industry%20Briefing%20-%20Jan%202012.pdf

 

Take a look who is at the front page of this organization:  Softbank!

 

http://www.lte-tdd.org/

 

This is the BEST SCENARIO that could have happened to us CLWR/S shareholders.  Son-san is a very sharp business cookie.  This is one of those tuck-in deals that is made for someone like Softbank.  They nail 2 birds with 1 stone.  Now, there is no more uncertainty about liquidity worries for CLWR, I think.  By buying up S, Softbank gets a stake with CLWR.  Win-win for everyone and all of us.

 

So, with what is going on in Asia btw China and Japan, this deal with Softbank should be very interesting for CLWR and China Mobile...

 

I am glad you guys have held on during the TWC sale.  Congrats to you guys!  The other day, the thought did cross my mind about buying more of CLWR, but I relented...  Oh well! 

 

Also, guys, just want to share this with you.  Looks like the land grab for wireless users is on:

 

http://www.fiercewireless.com/europe/special-reports/top-20-global-operators-q3

 

https://wirelessintelligence.com/analysis/2011/10/new-scoreboard-ranks-top-20-global-operator-groups-by-mobile-connections/

 

Consolidation is definitely on the horizon for the wireless telco vendors.

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Noticed the same thing earlier and was excited at first.  Got to wondering if all Sprint needs to do is buy an additional 3% of the company to get back to a 51% stake.

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