Cardboard Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Nope. Softbank wants control so it means assuming the debt also. If they support the debt, which is not the case with Sprint right now since they have done all they can to keep it non-recourse, bankruptcy is then automatically off the table. Even under a creeping take-over, they have to pay up at least a decent deal. If they screw around too much, then CLWR can dilute by selling some shares to keep S under 49% and sell to whomever pays what the board considers fair. My guess is that they enter into a friendly deal around $5 a share with some upside potential left through some share exchange. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 I haven't had time to really digest all of this, but to me, one of the most exciting parts is potentially being offered the opportunity to participate in S long run upside through a partial or full share exchange. I also really like how Son is talking up how the New Sprint will be an anti-T or -VZ which will be highly focused on giving consumers the best experience possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Cardboard and TxLaw, Now only if we can rid ourselves of that pathetic loser of a CEO named Dan Hesse, CLWR will have an instant pop... What kind of a moron that runs one of the largest wireless companies and not understands the value of spectrum? I am just thankful that we have a white knight in SOFTBANK. http://www.forbes.com/sites/forrester/2012/10/15/softbank-buys-sprint-waiting-for-the-other-shoe-to-drop-clearwire/?partner=yahootix http://www.forbes.com/sites/joanlappin/2012/10/15/sprints-hesse-takes-care-of-hesse-remains-ceo-after-change-of-control/?partner=yahootix I sure hope that SOFTBANK shows that idiot Hesse the doors after they realize what kind of a moron of a CEO he has been all of these years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Hmm . . . http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-15/sprint-said-not-to-plan-clearwire-takeover-after-softbank-deal.html Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), which agreed to sell a 70 percent stake to Softbank Corp. (9984) for $20.1 billion, has no immediate plans to take over Clearwire Corp. (CLWR), said people with direct knowledge of the situation. . . . While a decision hasn’t been made, Sprint doesn’t need to own Clearwire because it already has access to its spectrum and it’s too expensive, said two of the people. Wonder who these two people are -- investment bankers seeding the media perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It's probably from the same bozos who thought that 5x5Mhz spectrum that Sprint owns is more than enough than the 20x20Mhz of clean spectrum that CLWR owns. I find it very comical that now Mr. Market realizes the value of CLWR. The very fact that SOFTBANK has chosen TDD-LTE, the very same LTE technology that CLWR is on which allows true international roaming, as their technology of choice in Japan didn't get notice by these bozos either. Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Nice article on TDD-LTE and various global players there, including China Mobile, Softbank, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone. http://www.globaltelecomsbusiness.com/Article/2973451/Interviews/25239/SoftBank-aims-at-97-coverage-for-TD-LTE-networksays-CTO-Yoshioki-Chika.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Nice article on TDD-LTE and various global players there, including China Mobile, Softbank, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone. http://www.globaltelecomsbusiness.com/Article/2973451/Interviews/25239/SoftBank-aims-at-97-coverage-for-TD-LTE-networksays-CTO-Yoshioki-Chika.html I would be very surprised if Vodafone deploys TDD-LTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Ars Technica on Son-San. http://arstechnica.com/business/2012/10/how-sprints-new-boss-lost-70-billion-of-his-own-cash-and-still-stayed-rich/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueorama Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I have been reading up on clearwire. I am impressed how techinical this board has become. Here is some not-so-good news from Japan on Softbank. http://www.japanmobiletech.com/2012/10/softbank-introduction-to-those.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Valueorama, your first and only post to this board and yet, you are bearer of bad news... Can you bring us any more worse news from the Land of the Sun? LMAO!!! The site is filled with lots of SoftBank bashing though. This still doesn't change anything about the undiscovered value of CLWR whether be it through Sprint or through another owner (i.e. DISH, DirecTV or any of the baby bells). Other than that, welcome to the Corner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It's probably from the same bozos who thought that 5x5Mhz spectrum that Sprint owns is more than enough than the 20x20Mhz of clean spectrum that CLWR owns. I find it very comical that now Mr. Market realizes the value of CLWR. The very fact that SOFTBANK has chosen TDD-LTE, the very same LTE technology that CLWR is on which allows true international roaming, as their technology of choice in Japan didn't get notice by these bozos either. Amazing! Why did Softbank by Sprint and not Clearwire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It's called the 49.9MIL SUBSCRIBERS that SoftBank wants. Right now, there is a consolidation in the wireless telecom industry. The vendors are bulking up to go up against th likes of the Baby Bells and the international carriers. If you are small guy, you will have a hard time scaling. See attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Brker_guy, Like you, I have a profound dislike of Dan Hesse. The guy has committed so many mistakes that it leaves you scratching your head as to why Softbank wants to do any business with him. He saddled the company with a massive and expensive multi-year contract commitment to buy IPhones. Will they still be as popular 4 or 5 years from now? He was near diluting Sprint shares to death by acquiring MetroPCS early this year with the shares around $2 before the board said no. He got a no confidence vote by his own board and he is still around! He got in bed with Lightsquared when it was obvious to even idiots like me that this would not fly while compromising things like National air defense and the FAA. He created a messy LTE network instead of integrating fully with Clearwire. And buying Clearwire would have been cheap. They could have bought all the shares last year at higher prices, but there was much less outstanding, less debt and he could have resold spectrum then or at a later time to others if needed. He could also have sold capacity to others as Clearwire is planning to do. Now he is still messing around with Clearwire. I bet that he will try to buy some spectrum from Dish. Someone needs to teach a life lesson to that idiot. Stanton, McCaw, these are wireless legends. What are they waiting for? Finally, what remains unexplained is why Hope Cochran, the CFO was pulled away from the Deutsche Bank presentation on October 11. If Clearwire had no involvement in this thing, then why not presenting as usual? Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueorama Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Valueorama, your first and only post to this board and yet, you are bearer of bad news... Can you bring us any more worse news from the Land of the Sun? LMAO!!! The site is filled with lots of SoftBank bashing though. This still doesn't change anything about the undiscovered value of CLWR whether be it through Sprint or through another owner (i.e. DISH, DirecTV or any of the baby bells). Other than that, welcome to the Corner! All the US media was so positive about Softbank that when i saw a very direct and contradicting piece, I felt, this board deserved to hear a different view. I do feel there is value in CLWR. Hope it can be realized soon and in a meaningful way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Sure, we do, Valueorama. So, you decided to log in and do us a big favor to be a messenger of bad news about SoftBank? What wonderful favor you are doing for us? I do feel there is value in CLWR. Hope it can be realized soon and in a meaningful way. I "do feel". That sure sounds reassuring for us. Since you are so good at digging up dirt on SoftBank, how about some facts for us about how you "feel" about value for CLWR? Do share with us what you know, won't you, ValueOrama? This board is extremely negative about CLWR. So, a counter view from someone who knows value like you might help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Cardboard, Well, you hit the nail on the head there, brother! As highlighted by the Forbes article, Hesse didn't even have a clue about the power of spectrum until he was reminded by his own BOD the value of spectrum: http://www.forbes.com/sites/joanlappin/2012/10/15/sprints-hesse-takes-care-of-hesse-remains-ceo-after-change-of-control/?partner=yahootix The good news about Sprint is that SoftBank has given us an exit avenue should we choose to take it. It would be nice if that Hesse was part of that exit plan. But I know how the Japanese operate since I have had working relationships with Japanese companies, change will come, but it will come slowly... You brought Sprint and DISH. So, here is the latest news in case you have not seen it: http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/sprint-offers-dish-olive-branch-clash-over-spectrum-shift/2012-10-04 What it means is this: Sprint will be offering FD-LTE in the PCS “G” block (1910-1915/1990-1995 MHz). But it will only 2 x 5 MHz wide. So, Sprint wants to buy the adjoining “H” block so it can have 2 x 10MHz (1910-1920 / 1990-2000). So, that would interfere with Dish’s adjoining MSS spectrum at 2000 MHz. Sprint wants Dish to shift up 5 MHz (2005-2025 MHz) to avoid interference problems. Dish says that would delay their wireless rollout. Sprint wants the PCS extension because virtually no new infrastructure would be required to double their PCS bandwidth of their FD-LTE service which has better range than 2.6GHz. So, basically, Sprint is jockeying for spectrum positionining to delay Dish from competing wireless services to be launched and at the same time trying to get more spectrum for themselves. This onto itself is an act to invalidate CLWR, but here is the thing. SoftBank's network is on 2.5/2.6GHz. Furthermore, in order to be on full interoperability with SoftBank, CLWR's spectrum and CLWR's technology will be needed. So, no matter what boneheaded moves Hesse is going to try to pull, it will not work with the new owner, SoftBank. The way, I look at it. Here are a few options we have going forward with CLWR: 1) CLWR will be bought by Sprint because one, Sprint, no matter how much denial they are in, still needs CLWR's spectrum to launch their LTE network and two, CLWR's network is compatible with SoftBank's network. 2) CLWR can be bought by DISH or DirecTV because both companies want to offer wireless streaming to their users. DISH already made a $400MIL investment in CLWR recently, and DirecTV already complained to the FCC about the cable companies ought to be selling their investment in CLWR to allow them to buy those shares. A Clear partnership with Dish might need another partner – with cash – to make it happen, and guess who that partner is now? SoftBank! That could very well be AT&T and Microsoft. 3) AT&T needs more spectrum in order to support their LTE customers. AT&T will make a bid for CLWR. As you know, they recently bought my former employer, NextWave, and caused NextWave stock to have a 40% pop in just one day. The same scenario can play out with CLWR and AT&T. 4) T-Mobile can also buy up CLWR because they too need spectrum to grow. So, we have a few outs on our hands to play this hand of cards with... brker_guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mysticdrew Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 1) CLWR will be bought by Sprint because one, Sprint, no matter how much denial they are in, still needs CLWR's spectrum to launch their LTE network and two, CLWR's network is compatible with SoftBank's network. brker_guy Correct me if I'm mistaken but I thought Sprint already has access to CLWRs spectrum, so there's no extra benefit to buying them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 They have only limited access to CLWR spectrum, but not the entire 120MHz which CLWR is sitting on, mysticdrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mysticdrew Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 They have only limited access to CLWR spectrum, but not the entire 120MHz which CLWR is sitting on, mysticdrew. Ahh ok thanks for the clarification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 A few more things to share with you. See the attached, mysticdrew. Based on those historical data and financial facts, CLWR's spectrum ought to be valued around $0.29/MHz-PoP. So, that would mean that the spectrum should be valued around $5BIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 More on Son and the deal. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-16/softbank-s-son-seeks-to-skirt-history-of-cross-border-failures.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Brker_guy, Once one reads the presentation by Sprint/Softbank on Monday, you realize very quickly that Softbank has a desire for very high speeds and large volume of data transfer via wireless. They are actually not even that interested in cell phones or the traditional wireless, but in being an internet mobile provider. To do that, you need TDD-LTE and a lot of spectrum. Not the 2 x 5 FDD-LTE joke that Hesse has put together. Hesse's ambition is just to grow cell subscribers or sales like by buying MetroPCS, T-Mobile or Leap. That is all he is thinking about. He has no vision other than trying to catch up with AT&T and Verizon. Shorter term that may make sense other than the dilution and debt that it brings, but 2 to 3 years out, you realize that he will be paying a lot to Clearwire to use their service if they succeed staying independent. Everybody will then use their off-load capacity and they will charge a fair bit for it. Sprint will then still be #3 with no chance to ever catch-up. Anyhow, I sold about half on Monday seeing the huge pop for 3 days in a row with no confirmation as to what was going on with a potential Clearwire bid. My target is $4 to $5 for the stock, so in the $2.70 range, the upside had become much more limited and there was still a fair bit of risk involved with Sprint and their ability to block deals. Regarding your valuation of $5 billion for the spectrum, don't they have 46.3 B MHz Pop? Do you exclude what is being leased? Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JHelg Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Bloomberg is reporting that Sprint will buy McCaw's Eagle River Holdings' stake in CLWR! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-18/sprint-said-to-buy-eagle-river-s-clearwire-stake-to-gain-control.html See also this WSJ article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444868204578063151759878238.html It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Wow!!! Interesting news coming out after the market closed today... Cardboard, how i come up with that estimate is based on the chart I sent you of CLWR's 130Mhz of BW for covering 130Mil people and multiply that by .29. It's a rough order of magnitude in my estimate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mysticdrew Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Bloomberg is reporting that Sprint will buy McCaw's Eagle River Holdings' stake in CLWR! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-18/sprint-said-to-buy-eagle-river-s-clearwire-stake-to-gain-control.html See also this WSJ article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444868204578063151759878238.html It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this. Is this good for the remaining minority investor? Isn't this a similar type of scenario Bill Ackman was a afraid of and fighting against with GGP and Brookfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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