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AIG - American International Group


PlanMaestro

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In essence a debt for equity swap.

I'll gladly settle for it being wedged off the balance sheet for which I always thought is pretty much an unsellable asset.

 

Sort of. 

 

In addition to the liquidity benefits from this transaction (once the lock-up period expires) and the moving of debt off-balance sheet, we see AIG now having a stake in a different collection of air leaseco assets and liabilities.  A better one, IMO.  The portfolio of assets will now be newer, and as the second largest pure play air lease co in the world, there will likely be some efficiencies of scale to benefit from.  It's similar to what's happening in other leaseco industries (equipment rental and car rental).  See http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NTI4MTU3fENoaWxkSUQ9MjE1MzE5fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

 

I've always liked the air lease business. And it made a lot of sense for AIG to own ILFC when AIG was a AAA credit.  But now it makes all the sense in the world to divest those ops in a way that allows them to keep economic exposure to that biz without having to focus on the management of the biz. 

 

I'd love to see AIG do a similar big deal with their life insurance ops.

 

I agree in general and re your comment on AAA specifically. That is why I always thought it cannot be sold, because the only rational buyer is one with a AAA balance sheet and how many of those are left and would be interested in the leasing business? 0 by my count.

Hazy's also the one that more or less created that industry and he was running around out there fast becoming ILFCs main competitor. ILFC and Hazy at some point sued each other, so I saw him as a not only an extremely good competitor, but one with an axe to grind.

Today Hazy is close to being back in the driver seat of most likely the main player in this industry again.

Kudos to Ben....once again. He clearly exceeded my expectations.

 

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Their run rate on the repurchase program is about $200 million a quarter and the authorization is extremely small at $1B.  I was really hoping that they would have increased it with the sale of ILFC as they have an extra $3B in cash but its a shame that was not the case.

 

Tks,

 

Good opp for them to buy back more under 50

Hope they can execute

 

hopefully they will buy back more Shares this year

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Their run rate on the repurchase program is about $200 million a quarter and the authorization is extremely small at $1B.  I was really hoping that they would have increased it with the sale of ILFC as they have an extra $3B in cash but its a shame that was not the case.

 

Tks,

 

Good opp for them to buy back more under 50

Hope they can execute

 

hopefully they will buy back more Shares this year

 

indeed very sad. hopefully they buy back soon more Shares. and a lot of Shares.

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Exactly... I continue to add to my options position.  It's a shame they only added $1B to their share repurchase program especially with this large of a discount. 

 

Tks,

S

 

Pretty good result!

add in the DTA converted to cash and cash EPS suddenly look like this stock could easily be worth 65$/sh or 100B$ market cap

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Exactly... I continue to add to my options position.  It's a shame they only added $1B to their share repurchase program especially with this large of a discount. 

 

Tks,

S

 

 

Anything jump out at anyone to justify negative response by the market (aside from P&C underwriting and buyback)?  Does this thing still deserve to be 20-25% below book?

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Actually, AIG is currently 41% below book value, this is rediculous!!! (68.62/48.65)  Once the ILFC deal closes, we should see another bump to the dividend / share repurchase program.  AIG is overly capitalized...

 

Tks,

S

 

Exactly... I continue to add to my options position.  It's a shame they only added $1B to their share repurchase program especially with this large of a discount. 

 

Tks,

S

 

 

Anything jump out at anyone to justify negative response by the market (aside from P&C underwriting and buyback)?  Does this thing still deserve to be 20-25% below book?

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Actually, AIG is currently 41% below book value, this is rediculous!!! (68.62/48.65)  Once the ILFC deal closes, we should see another bump to the dividend / share repurchase program.  AIG is overly capitalized...

 

Tks,

S

 

Exactly... I continue to add to my options position.  It's a shame they only added $1B to their share repurchase program especially with this large of a discount. 

 

Tks,

S

 

 

Anything jump out at anyone to justify negative response by the market (aside from P&C underwriting and buyback)?  Does this thing still deserve to be 20-25% below book?

 

I get 29% below BV.

 

BV = 68.50 - current 48.65 = roughly $20

 

$20/68.50 = 29% below book

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