MrB Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 This is a pretty big sale with $7-8 B in face value. AIG should get substantial amount from this sale , probably $2-3 B.I am assuming that the transaction takes place at 70% of the face value. With this transaction Fed should get all its principal+Interest. Which is the trigger for the $5Bn plus interest to be released...yes/no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Fed has $2.7B Principal and $700m interest as outstanding in Maiden Lane III. So after these are paid ( $3.4B ) money will flow to AIG. This is from Fed's weekly Balance sheet release. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/ Information on Principal Accounts of Maiden Lane III LLC Millions of dollars Wednesday Account name May 30, 2012 Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane III LLC (1) 15,257 Outstanding principal amount of loan extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2) 2,768 Accrued interest payable to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2) 736 Outstanding principal amount and accrued interest on loan payable to American International Group, Inc. (3) 5,616 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theando Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 http://www.nasdaq.com/article/update-fed-to-sell-71-billion-in-cdos-despite-churning-markets-20120605-01714 More sales coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 This is a pretty big sale with $7-8 B in face value. AIG should get substantial amount from this sale , probably $2-3 B.I am assuming that the transaction takes place at 70% of the face value. With this transaction Fed should get all its principal+Interest. Which is the trigger for the $5Bn plus interest to be released...yes/no? I'm not sure there is a release--I think AIG just gets its portion after their expenses are gone for each sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theando Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I don't think they release the prices for all of the entity (ie. ML3) sales until it is complete. I believe they want to keep it quiet for competitive purposes. AiG should get at least its $5.6B in equity out plus 1/3 of profits. Best estimates I have see is for them to net $6-7B total from ML3. I would expect another buyback/treasury offering upon completion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20120606/NEWS04/120609946?tags=%7C59%7C306%7C76%7C302 The commercial property/casualty insurance market continues to firm, with rates increasing by an average of 4% in May compared with the same month last year, MarketScout reported Tuesday. The Dallas-based electronic insurance exchange said commercial property insurance and workers compensation saw the biggest increases, at 5% each. No line experienced flat or lower rates, although MarketScout said prices for fiduciary, crime and surety coverage each rose by only 1%. In addition, MarketScout reported that the smallest accounts experienced the biggest average rate increases at 4% while the largest accounts saw increases of only 1%. “It's not unusual for underwriters to aggressively price jumbo accounts because of the caches they bring,” said MarketScout CEO Richard Kerr in a statement accompanying the May report. He added that “it is difficult to compare rates with smaller accounts because jumbo accounts frequently implement high retentions, captive involvement and heavy reinsurance.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 This guy scared me: http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2012/06/06/industry-headed-for-bankruptcy-when-a-hurricane-hi New York City’s demography and geography are perfect for maximum destruction during a hurricane, Coch adds. And it doesn’t have to be what is known as a major hurricane of Category 3 or stronger. “A Category 2 in New York is equal to a Category 4 in Charleston,” Coch says. New York is low. It was built on rivers, and will be subject to freshwater flooding as well as surge from the ocean. The valuation of potentially-affected structures is very high and its tall buildings will bear the brunt of stronger winds. To get rich, Coch advices, “buy plywood futures” before a hurricane hits New York. New York is “headed for disaster,” and Coch thinks the city is due. When it happens, the industry will truly be tested because the U.S. has yet to see a major hurricane hit a major city. “You’re focused on frequency when you should be focused on the consequences,” he says. “Companies don’t do homework. Do good science. Sooner or later we’re going to run out of luck. ” The New York City area hasn’t been hit by a hurricane since 1938. Before that the city saw hurricanes in 1893 and 1821. Coch says this is more proof a significant storm is in the city’s future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Gambler's fallacy. The likelihood of a hurricane in New York City is no greater or less because it hasn't had one in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 perhaps he was merely indicating that the chance of being hit isn't inordinately low because of the prior hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Is flooding covered by insurance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 AIG could see $2B from the sale of $7B in CDO sales this week. This is according to article in FT and the estimate is from Joshua from Bernstein. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9d23ef64-b30e-11e1-a1d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1xQ6d5yGr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Is flooding covered by insurance? Depends on your policy I suppose but it was certainly covered in Katrina. Strange idea... Hurricane in NYC, and why it will happen sooner rather than later. Weather is as random as it gets. Even Earthquakes are more predictable. As for Major cities getting hit by Hurricanes, what about Miami, Manilla, Havana, Houston, New Orleans.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Flooding was not covered by private insurers in Katrina for the most part. Most Flood insurance in the United States is through the Federal Government (FEMA). The government will only offer $250,000 for building and $100,000 for contents. Above that, it is possible to obtain private insurance for excess of loss over that. But most p&c policies in the US specifically exclude flooding. Businesses also make business interruption claims if they carry that coverage. Is flooding covered by insurance? Depends on your policy I suppose but it was certainly covered in Katrina. Strange idea... Hurricane in NYC, and why it will happen sooner rather than later. Weather is as random as it gets. Even Earthquakes are more predictable. As for Major cities getting hit by Hurricanes, what about Miami, Manilla, Havana, Houston, New Orleans.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranski Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 in canada, flooding is excluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 Insurers’ Year-End 2011 Reserves Redundant by $11.7 Billion http://www.insurancenetworking.com/news/aon-benfield-reserves-redundant-workers-comp-30517-1.html At year-end 2011, U.S. insurers' reserves were redundant by $11.7 billion – or 2 percent of total booked reserves – compared with $22 billion at year-end 2010 after the industry released $12.7 billion of reserves during 2011, according to an Aon Benfield study. The favorable emergence of reserves was at the 29th percentile of the estimated range of outcomes. The year-end figure is comprised of redundancies in personal lines of $7.6 billion ($6.5 billion for 2010), commercial property of $1 billion ($1.5 billion for 2010), and commercial liability of $6.7 billion ($9.9 billion for 2010), offset by deficiencies in workers' compensation of $1.7 billion ($6.5 billion redundant), and financial guaranty of $1.8 billion ($2.4 billion). The effects of the U.S. economic downturn and less favorable trends in loss frequency and severity have resulted in a significant shift in the level of reserve adequacy for workers' compensation compared to the year-end 2010 study. Workers' compensation has developed adversely by $2.1 billion since 2009. The study, which uses actuarial reserving procedures including the chain ladder method applied to paid and case incurred loss development triangles, estimates that $7billion to $10 billion of favorable reserve development will occur in 2012, and that the reserve redundancy will be eliminated in 1.1 years at the current run-rate. "The headwind against a broad market hardening from reserve releases continued in Q1 2012, as public companies released an additional $4.2 billion of reserves, compared to $4.6 billion in 2011,” said Stephen Mildenhall, CEO of Aon Benfield Analytics. “However, the forecast is for the winds to abate over the next four to six quarters, with the hard market years slowing and the more recent accident years booked less conservatively." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 Workers’ Comp Market Injured But Still Standing http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2012/06/08/250642.htm Like the economy, the workers’ compensation market has suffered in recent years. Results for 2011 were no better than 2010. The good news: results for the workers’ comp market were not worse either. The combined ratio held steady at 115 for the workers’ comp line of business, according to the NCCI Holding Inc.’s “State of the Line” report published in May. That’s the same as in 2010. While stable, the reported combined ratio stands as the highest combined ratio for all major commercial lines for the third straight year. A number of factors contribute to the line’s challenging conditions, the experts say. The weak economy, high unemployment rates, rising claims frequency and unrelenting medical inflation all contribute to the market’s health. Another reason for workers’ comp’s under-performance is rate inadequacy. .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Q1 2012 looking dandy http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2012/06/11/q1-2012-in-charts-underwriting-profitability-retur?t=es-specialty&utm_source=PC360DailyeNews&utm_medium=eNL&utm_campaign=PC360_eNLs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 12, 2012 Author Share Posted June 12, 2012 Pricing improves and accelerates despite headwinds Towers Watson Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey (includes graph) http://www.towerswatson.com/research/2888 Commercial insurance prices in aggregate increased by nearly 5% during the first quarter of 2012, according to Towers Watson's most recent Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey (CLIPS). The survey compared prices charged on policies underwritten during the first quarter of 2012 to those charged for the same coverage during the same quarter in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Pricing improves and accelerates despite headwinds Towers Watson Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey (includes graph) http://www.towerswatson.com/research/2888 Commercial insurance prices in aggregate increased by nearly 5% during the first quarter of 2012, according to Towers Watson's most recent Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey (CLIPS). The survey compared prices charged on policies underwritten during the first quarter of 2012 to those charged for the same coverage during the same quarter in 2011. Plan this is North American data, right? Assuming it is then it is a big deal because... 70% of AIG's core business value is made up of Chartis. 52% of Chartis revenue made up of the Americas. 62% of Chartis revenue made up of Commercial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Pricing improves and accelerates despite headwinds Towers Watson Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey (includes graph) http://www.towerswatson.com/research/2888 Commercial insurance prices in aggregate increased by nearly 5% during the first quarter of 2012, according to Towers Watson's most recent Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey (CLIPS). The survey compared prices charged on policies underwritten during the first quarter of 2012 to those charged for the same coverage during the same quarter in 2011. Plan this is North American data, right? Assuming it is then it is a big deal because... 70% of AIG's core business value is made up of Chartis. 52% of Chartis revenue made up of the Americas. 62% of Chartis revenue made up of Commercial However that is still less than a quarter of the business. .7 x .52 x .62 = .225 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 12, 2012 Author Share Posted June 12, 2012 Plan this is North American data, right? Assuming it is then it is a big deal because... 70% of AIG's core business value is made up of Chartis. 52% of Chartis revenue made up of the Americas. 62% of Chartis revenue made up of Commercial About CLIPS CLIPS data are based on both new and renewal business figures obtained directly from carriers underwriting the business. This particular survey compared prices charged on policies underwritten during the second quarter of 2011 to the prices charged for the same coverage during the same quarter in 2010. For the most recent survey, data were contributed by 38 participating insurance companies representing approximately 20% of the commercial insurance market (excluding state workers compensation funds). CLIPS participants represent a cross section of U.S. property & casualty insurers that includes many of both the top 10 commercial lines companies and the top 25 insurance groups in the U.S. Measurement of both pricing changes and loss ratio changes also sets CLIPS apart from other studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 12, 2012 Author Share Posted June 12, 2012 However that is still less than a quarter of the business. .7 x .52 x .62 = .225 You are right Eric, but it's the part of the business that needs a turnaround and is longer tailed. Personal lines is OK, International and Life are more than OK. US Commercial Lines CORs should be in the low 90s to get a decent ROE with the current interest rates (instead of the 100s it has). Chartis, for the first time in a long time, contracted business mainly in the USA so all this might be a sign that discipline has been restored by the price leader. As John Hancock said in December: Where I would grant some ground to the charge is that, during the midst of the crisis, the industry lost their favorite leader on pricing. And so I've got a lot of feedback that when starting in January, started to ask for rate, there was, I think, a lot of relief from the industry that finally, we are back driving the bus in terms of getting a proper return on risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 12, 2012 Author Share Posted June 12, 2012 Another Towers Watson report both commercial and personal lines. Very interesting graphs all around. An Inflection Point for the P&C (Re)Insurance Industry http://www.towerswatson.com/assets/pdf/mailings/January-2012-PC-Insights.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 I'm meeting someone tomorrow that is an outstanding investor and I understand AIG is his largest holding. Assume for a second that you were in my shoes and held the same opinion of this guy. What would your top three questions to him be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 13, 2012 Author Share Posted June 13, 2012 Jay Wintrob, CEO SunAmerica http://cc.talkpoint.com/morg007/061212a_mc/ http://www.aigcorporate.com/investors/JSWMorganStanley.pdf Doing great. * 500% RBC (yes!) * $19 billion total adjusted statutory capital * $1.3 billion 1Q12 Operating Earnings * Only 13% variable annuities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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