Guest wellmont Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 weird I sold some warrants over $15 in September when the stock was trading under $35. make of this information what you will. :) perhaps a theory is there was a lot of hot money in the warrants back then speculating on bigger buybacks. No plans to sell my AIG tarp warrants,... it makes no sense for me to trade much. They have become much cheaper (currently below $14) relative to the recent run-up in the BAC a-warrants around x-mas. I'm not sure if they ever reach the most upper limits, probably more unlikely, but over the next 3 years they might double at least and that would equate to some good growth of something above ~25% annualized. I might repost some older article... Berkowitz Owns 1/3 Of AIG's TARP Warrants, And He Can't Get Out http://seekingalpha.com/article/668281-berkowitz-owns-1-3-of-aig-s-tarp-warrants-and-he-can-t-get-out?source=forbes yeah. AIG is over $36 and warrants are under $14. that favors the warrants imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Sure, we insured everyone against default and they nearly all defaulted, and we had no role. And if they had been allowed to default we would be out of business. Idiots, Almost wants to make me sell my stock. At least it gives them something to focus on while the real workers at AIG rebuild the company. Uccmal,... haven't you seen my heading,... that is only some fake satirical column by Philip Maddocks,... or at least it's seems the way as I understood it,... so you might come calm. ----- Now, here comes some serious article, you might be able to gawk. FAHR: AIG apparently not too big to be greedy 2013-01-22 TheVoice http://www.voicenews.com/articles/2013/01/22/opinion/doc50f9ae22e02f3813718692.txt whoops. Getting too tired this week. Here you might get some more reasonable explanation why AIG did not sue the government. ----- Why A.I.G. Did Not Sue the Government 2013-01-23 NYTimes One lawyer said that the lawsuit had only a 20 percent chance of succeeding, according to a document released on Wednesday. one lawyer pointed out, it could damage A.I.G.’s reputation. The lawsuit, they worried, “threatened to destroy much of the good work that A.I.G. and its employees had done rebuilding A.I.G. and its name and reputation” after the bailout, according to a letter by Paul Curnin, the lawyer who advised A.I.G. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/why-a-i-g-did-not-sue-the-government/ ----- AIG Saw Starr’s Lawsuit as Likely to Fail, Damaging 2013-01-23 Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-23/aig-saw-starr-s-lawsuit-as-likely-to-fail-damaging.html The case is Starr International Co. v. U.S., 1:11-cv-00779, U.S. Court of Federal Claims (Washington). ----- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 AIG Chairman Miller on the insurance company's future WSJ Live Video from Davos 2013-01-24 http://live.wsj.com/video/aig-chairman-miller-on-the-insurance-companys-fut-2013-01-24-121151129/9FBE308A-1C67-45D4-ABBA-457E2870B1C9.html ----- AIG Hires Patton Boggs to Lobby on Plane-Lease Unit Deal 2013-01-24 Bloomberg The firm registered to represent AIG effective Dec. 7, the day the insurer said it was in talks to sell International Lease Finance Corp. to a group of Chinese investors. The $4.2 billion deal requires approval from regulators in China and the U.S. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/aig-hires-patton-boggs-to-lobby-on-plane-lease-unit-deal.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Bob has been a fabulous wartime general if you will, and we now need to consider what are our needs going forward now that the crisis is behind us. – Steve Miller AIG Chairman Miller on the insurance company's future WSJ Live Video from Davos 2013-01-24 http://live.wsj.com/video/aig-chairman-miller-on-the-insurance-companys-fut-2013-01-24-121151129/9FBE308A-1C67-45D4-ABBA-457E2870B1C9.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Bob has been a fabulous wartime general if you will, and we now need to consider what are our needs going forward now that the crisis is behind us. – Steve Miller AIG Chairman Miller on the insurance company's future WSJ Live Video from Davos 2013-01-24 http://live.wsj.com/video/aig-chairman-miller-on-the-insurance-companys-fut-2013-01-24-121151129/9FBE308A-1C67-45D4-ABBA-457E2870B1C9.html Geeze, he must have read your earlier comment about wartime generals. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 http://dealbreaker.com/2013/01/aig-put-a-lot-of-thought-into-making-its-obvious-decision-not-to-sue-the-government/?utm_source=Dealbreaker&utm_campaign=Dealbreaker_Daily_01_24_2013&utm_medium=email A lot more info here...but only entertainment value at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olmsted Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Why the continuous chatter from management (Benmosche a couple weeks ago, Miller today) about acquisitions? I can only hope they are small and very targeted. They need to be when your shares are at .5 BV. Yes, stop playing defense. Yes, go find prudent, incremental, strap-on opportunities that boost your ROE and make the firm better. But I get nervous that empire-building ambitions are only thinly veiled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 AIG to Put Bonus Carrot in Front of Staff as U.S. Repaid http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/aig-to-put-bonus-carrot-in-front-of-staff-after-bailout-repaid.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Share price looks ready for a breakthrough. It's been testing the $37.20-37.30 range a few times now. This one is so undervalued. As much as I like BAC, I think AIG offers a (much) better long term value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Bernstein Calls AIG ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Stock http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2013/01/28/bernstein-calls-aig-once-in-a-generation-stock/ Anyone with access to the report that can comment on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Bernstein Calls AIG ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Stock http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2013/01/28/bernstein-calls-aig-once-in-a-generation-stock/ Anyone with access to the report that can comment on it? just type "Bernstein Calls AIG ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Stock" in google, once you click on the link you can see the full article yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Bernstein Calls AIG ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Stock http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2013/01/28/bernstein-calls-aig-once-in-a-generation-stock/ Anyone with access to the report that can comment on it? just type "Bernstein Calls AIG ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Stock" in google, once you click on the link you can see the full article yourself. Not much meat on this article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 just type "Bernstein Calls AIG ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Stock" in google, once you click on the link you can see the full article yourself. I was referring to the Bernstein report. They are usually very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 just type "Bernstein Calls AIG ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Stock" in google, once you click on the link you can see the full article yourself. I was referring to the Bernstein report. They are usually very good. here you go, siraig.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Fareastwarriors- Mucho Gracias! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Obrigado FW! Metlife outstanding shares year end. 1999 786,203,472 2000 757,051,660 2001 708,598,152 2002 700,278,412 2003 755,809,398 2004 732,924,389 2003: In connection with MetLife, Inc.'s, initial public offering in April 2000, the Holding Company and MetLife Capital Trust I (the "Trust") issued equity security units (the "units"). Each unit originally consisted of (i) a contract to purchase, for $50, shares of the Holding Company's common stock (the "purchase contracts") on May 15, 2003; and (ii) a capital security of the Trust, with a stated liquidation amount of $50. In accordance with the terms of the units, the Trust was dissolved on February 5, 2003, and $1,006 million aggregate principal amount of 8.00% debentures of the Holding Company (the "MetLife debentures"), the sole assets of the Trust, were distributed to the owners of the Trust's capital securities in exchange for their capital securities. The MetLife debentures were remarketed on behalf of the debenture owners on February 12, 2003 and the interest rate on the MetLife debentures was reset as of February 15, 2003 to 3.911% per annum for a yield to maturity of 2.876%. As a result of the remarketing, the debenture owners received $21 million ($0.03 per diluted common share) in excess of the carrying value of the capital securities. This excess was recorded by the Company as a charge to additional paid-in capital and, for the purpose of calculating earnings per share, is subtracted from net income to arrive at net income available to common shareholders. On May 15, 2003, the purchase contracts associated with the units were settled. In exchange for $1,006 million, the Company issued 2.97 shares of MetLife, Inc. common stock per purchase contract, or approximately 59.8 million shares of treasury stock. The excess of the Company's cost of the treasury stock ($1,662 million) over the contract price of the stock issued to the purchase contract holders ($1,006 million) was $656 million, which was recorded as a direct reduction to retained earnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 just type "Bernstein Calls AIG ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Stock" in google, once you click on the link you can see the full article yourself. I was referring to the Bernstein report. They are usually very good. here you go, sir Thoughts on the report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 just type "Bernstein Calls AIG ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Stock" in google, once you click on the link you can see the full article yourself. I was referring to the Bernstein report. They are usually very good. here you go, sir Thoughts on the report? I think it's very conservative on how its assumptions will impact market price. Assuming a combined ratio in the low to mid 90s, AIG will be worth a heck of a lot more than it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Thanks The author seems to be very confident that AIG will do buy back in 2013.I think another buyback is not priced in by the market. The author talks about AIG going through CCAR process in 2014. I always thought that they are going through CCAR in 2013 also. I agree that the focus of AIG should be on improving ROE to 10% ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not sure where they got their ~20% Tier 1. Any ideas? AIG can work through Fed reviews, and with a Tier 1 Common ratio of ~20%, AIG is solidly capitalized and would pass CCAR. Unlike some peers, AIG has taken the approach of embracing the Fed as their new regulator and there should be able to avoid surprises, for the Fed has had a substantial role in overseeing ever since they bailed them out in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Reread the last conference call transcript and saw some interesting points. AIG seems to be taking much smarter risks: "The accident year loss ratio as adjusted was 66.5%, nearly a 2 point improvement over the comparable prior year period, despite an unusual increase in non-catastrophe property severe losses. We view the improvement in accident year loss ratio over the past several quarters as a strong indicator that our strategies to optimize business mix, pricing and risk selection through enhanced underwriting tools are succeeding.... Our organizational structure promotes underwriting excellence as we’ve consolidated our underwriters into global teams versus the silo structure that existed in the past. We’ve empowered our employees to implement state-of-the-art underwriting tools and hire new talent to supplement our bench of existing talent." A major criticism of old AIG was that the company was under-reserving. The current management seems to be taking an extensive and critical look at existing reserves. For example: "So, a few things on environmental, we've now concluded a very detailed study of the environmental impairment liability portfolio and that's the portfolio made up of five distinct fairly heterogeneous books that we described in the 10-Q and we've reviewed claim-by-claim 2,150 odd files on the most complex claims that we focused on those with the highest policy limits. Many of these were written in the period prior to 2004 and we did not do this prompted by any actuarial indications and in fact the actuarial third party reviews we had would have suggested the environmental portfolio as redundant. We did it more because we think that the characteristics of those claims, such that you really need other experts, engineering firms, toxicologists and litigation experts and in this quarter, roughly 60 million of the 77 million that you see, that we've posted as prior year development, came from a very detailed analysis that we did on (inaudible) claims and we felt that the characteristics of those claims were sufficiently different to warrant a more conservative stance on from their severity in particular." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The bear case : "deteriorating macro environment and rising rates" I don't understand why rising rates is bad for AIG Isn't rising rate a positive for P&C in general ? just type "Bernstein Calls AIG ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Stock" in google, once you click on the link you can see the full article yourself. I was referring to the Bernstein report. They are usually very good. here you go, sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The bear case : "deteriorating macro environment and rising rates" I don't understand why rising rates is bad for AIG Isn't rising rate a positive for P&C in general ? Maybe they're just looking at the short term? Rising rates would mean that the bonds they already hold would lose some value, though one they start rolling over into higher interest ones it'll be a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrvlad0 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 AIG Announces Exclusive Distribution Relationship with HSBC in Turkey and France http://buswk.co/Xdt5om LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 28, 2013-- American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) today announced that it has entered into 10-year bancassurance agreements with HSBC Group companies under which AIG will become the exclusive provider of non-life insurance products to HSBC Group customers in Turkey and France, as well as in other countries in Continental Europe as may be agreed. AIG expects to pay a total consideration of approximately US$55 million for the exclusive distribution access in Turkey and France, and expects to launch the partnerships in the first half of 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 What a difference a analyst report can make to share price especially when the report rehashes the information that is already known to the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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