racemize Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 AIA sale press release. I've lost track of how much AIA they have--anyone recall the amount before (or after) this sale? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aig-announces-pricing-sale-ordinary-234200378.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ_Value Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 AIA sale press release. I've lost track of how much AIA they have--anyone recall the amount before (or after) this sale? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aig-announces-pricing-sale-ordinary-234200378.html From their Q2 10-Q form Sale of AIA Shares On March 7, 2012, AIG sold approximately 1.72 billion ordinary shares of AIA Group Limited (AIA) for gross proceeds of approximately $6.0 billion (the AIA Sale). As a result of the AIA Sale, AIG's retained interest in AIA decreased from approximately 33 percent to approximately 19 percent. At June 30, 2012 and December 31, 2011, the fair value of AIG's retained interest in AIA was approximately $7.7 billion and $12.4 billion, respectively. Retained Interests Retained Interests may continue to experience volatility due to fair value gains or losses on the AIA ordinary shares and the retained interests in ML III. At June 30, 2012, AIG owned approximately 19 percent of the outstanding ordinary shares of AIA. A change of one Hong Kong dollar in AIA's share price would result in an approximate $300 million change in AIG's pre-tax income. AIG is restricted from selling any of its remaining AIA ordinary shares to third parties or entering into hedging transactions that might protect AIG against fluctuations in the value of its remaining interest in AIA until September 4, 2012. After that date, AIG expects to monetize its investment in AIA ordinary shares from time to time depending on market conditions, AIG's liquidity position and opportunities for cash redeployment. They didn't wait long after the restriction was lifted to start selling. Probably will do the same when the next restriction period is lifted on December 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
persistentone Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I think the market is slightly "disappointed" in the $5B number vs. 9-10B some were expecting. My take is neutral as they are only selling 25% of AIA, but only at a 2% discount. As long as AIA is performing reasonably well they can leak it out over time without having to take an 8-10% haircut. I could argue for selling it all, but this seems ok. The real key is ILFC. Can AIG get that to market quickly. If so that is the game changer to get the rest/a good chunk of the government stake reduced. I think this will be an interesting stock through the election. Wasn't AIG doing secondaries before to clear the government shares? Why have they resorted to buying back stock on the open market, which is bound to be at higher prices? Not sure what restrictions the government places on buybacks, but if AIG could do secondaries for the government shares, and simultaneously buy back its own shares from the open market, it would be able to do the same transaction, but at much lower prices. They would need to sell off the stock to a lower price to find buyers of the government shares. But paradoxically this gives AIG the most accretive targets for a share buyback, at those lower prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theando Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 P1, Not sure I totally understand t he question, but I will try to go over what I know. At one point early on (5/11 I believe) before reducing their stake the government Forced AIG to do a secondary offering of new shares. This was done in an attempt to prove out that AIG would/could be supported by the market and that the price was not solely a function of the large stake held by the government. After this offering the price suffered for a while and traded down as low as 20ish. Subsequently AIG really ramped up its capital plan by selling some AIA and ML2, etc. They then built up a capital cushion after returns the ML money to the govt. At that point the Govt seemed to be comfortable with the company executing a buyback of the govt shares while simultaneously selling their own shares into the market. The government did not want AIG to be able to buy 100% of the shares as they felt this would not reflect a true market price for the shares. The solution seems to have been selling 1/2 of the offerings to AIG and half to the market. So far this arrangement has worked well. The government has been able to claim a profit on the bailout and AIG has been able to dramatically reduce its share count. I agree this is not perfect for AIG in that sometimes they are paying a little higher price for the shares. This is necessary as the share sales are as much political as economic. Don't forget banks like BAC and C can't do buybacks and in some cases have been refused dividend payments. All told this has been a very fair deal for AIG and the govt. If we continue at this pace shareholders will fare well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Don't forget the greenshoe, which has traditionally been around 15% of the original offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Don't forget the greenshoe, which has traditionally been around 15% of the original offer. Has that been on every offer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Don't forget the greenshoe, which has traditionally been around 15% of the original offer. Has that been on every offer? Double check, but I think so yes. Off memory on the last two and I think there has only been 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olmsted Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Not sure what restrictions the government places on buybacks, but if AIG could do secondaries for the government shares, and simultaneously buy back its own shares from the open market, it would be able to do the same transaction, but at much lower prices. They would need to sell off the stock to a lower price to find buyers of the government shares. But paradoxically this gives AIG the most accretive targets for a share buyback, at those lower prices. I second theAndo. Treasury absolutely has to maintain transparency and avoid the appearance of giving AIG a sweetheart deal. The unofficial policy is to pair each sale to AIG with a suitably large open-market sale which serves to set the price. Definitely not optimal for AIG, but not bad considering. As a taxpayer, I think treasury is still giving AIG a deal. As a shareholder, you won't hear me complain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theando Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Agreed. This method has allowed a govt controlled company to execute a large scale buyback practically without notice from the media. I will take it even if it is not theoretically optimal. Almost no business get to make optimal decisions. Next buyback must be coming soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest rimm_never_sleeps Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 buying shares from the US gov has enabled aig to take a huge amount of stock off the table at way below IV. it's exactly the right thing to do. it also makes the job of selling off us gov stake easier. the folks that worry it's done at $33 instead of $29 miss the bigger picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olmsted Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Bernstein believes the Treasury is pursuing a smaller offering of AIG in the $10B-$15B range, which could occur as soon as tonight. The analyst believes the Treasury is acting smartly as a tactical seller on the final exit and will make its final sale in Q4 rather than Q3. http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/AIGid1700754/AIG-Treasury-could-sell-part-of-AIG-stake-as-soon-as-tonight-says-Bernstein Dipped 3% this morning, almost back to even though. The dips on treasury sales are getting smaller and smaller. I think it signals a shifting perception in how the market views them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/77633fae-f8b5-11e1-8d92-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz25o10Qm2n Block trades are almost always priced at a discount to the prevailing market price to attract buyers, and there is an expectation that the shares concerned will come under pressure. When AIG sold $6bn of AIA shares in March, the stock dropped more than 8 per cent the following day. However, AIA shares were up more than 6 per cent to HK$27.90 on Friday afternoon from Thursday’s close of HK$26.30. The Asian group said on Friday morning that the sale of AIG’s stake had been priced at HK$26.50, towards the top end of the range given on Thursday evening – and at a near 1 per cent premium to Thursday’s close. Investors had shown strong interest ahead of the expected stake sale, and the banks involved knew the price could be squeezed higher as orders were taken, according to one person involved. “There is a scarcity value to this stock, it only trades about 60m-70m shares per day, so if an investor wants to build a position it is very difficult,” the person said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Historical overview of the P&C industry (video) http://www2.iii.org/video/reasons-for-optimism-in-the-p-c-insurance-industry-narrated-presentation.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 Here we go. American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) today announced that the U.S. Department of the Treasury (Treasury) has launched an offering of $18 billion of its AIG common stock, par value $2.50 per share (AIG Common Stock). Treasury will also grant a 30-day option to the underwriters for the offering to purchase up to an additional $2.7 billion of AIG Common Stock to cover over-allotments, if any. In connection with Treasury’s offering, AIG has indicated to Treasury that it intends to purchase up to $5 billion of AIG Common Stock in the offering, at the initial public offering price, pursuant to a previously announced authorization granted by the AIG Board of Directors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Here we go. American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) today announced that the U.S. Department of the Treasury (Treasury) has launched an offering of $18 billion of its AIG common stock, par value $2.50 per share (AIG Common Stock). Treasury will also grant a 30-day option to the underwriters for the offering to purchase up to an additional $2.7 billion of AIG Common Stock to cover over-allotments, if any. In connection with Treasury’s offering, AIG has indicated to Treasury that it intends to purchase up to $5 billion of AIG Common Stock in the offering, at the initial public offering price, pursuant to a previously announced authorization granted by the AIG Board of Directors. holy bejesus. I wish AIG was buying 9 of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I wonder of the amount was AIG's choice or the regulators. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I do not understand this.Why AIG is buying only $5B worth of stock. They got around $8B from MLIII and $2B from AIA sales.They recently got $10B and should use it for buyback.This should take the outstanding to 1.58B and treasury's stake to around 26%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Can't say that I am not disappointed either. Btw, why didn't AIG have a greenshoe option when it sell the AIA shares? After all, it was able to sell the shares at a premium and it was oversubscribed multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olmsted Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Yeah, this kind of sucks. AIG only buying 25% of the offering vs. about half of past offerings. I don't understand the thinking here, I thought they had the liquidity. Perhaps treasury is playing hardball now that these offerings are better accepted by the market? If so, (as a taxpayer) good for them but (as an investor) I wish they were less competent. On the bright side, maybe the disappointing buyback will actually give us a real dip tomorrow. I'm heavy into AIG, but not quite Berkowitz-heavy yet. Wouldn't mind getting some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest rimm_never_sleeps Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 love it. what other company on the planet is buying back $5b usd of their own stock at a massive discount to iv on Monday? :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Impressive, But no price so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawks Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 IMO, buying back stock, at a serious discount to IV, is a positive. Don't think we should get hung up on whether they are buying too little or too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRH Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 I think that the bigger story is that they see at least $13B interest from sources outside AIG for this offering. I'd say the writing's on the wall and the market has noticed that the elimination of the gov't overhang is imminent. Speaking of Berkowitz-heavy involvement, I'm here to tell you - even with that level of concentration, I'm wishing I had bought more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 I think that the bigger story is that they see at least $13B interest from sources outside AIG for this offering. I'd say the writing's on the wall and the market has noticed that the elimination of the gov't overhang is imminent. Speaking of Berkowitz-heavy involvement, I'm here to tell you - even with that level of concentration, I'm wishing I had bought more. I wouldn't call Berkowitz involvement heavy,... at least not compared with a young Buffett of the early 1950's, prior his partnership. He had almost 75% of his personal net worth in only one stock,... GEICO. I encourage you to reread some older article which has been posted here before. How Warren Buffett Made His First $100,000 ---> http://www.gurufocus.com/news/169950/how-warren-buffett-made-his-first-100000 <snip>... “That Monday, less than 48 hours after he arrived back in New York, Warren dumped stocks worth three quarters of his net worth and used the cash to buy 350 shares of GEICO…GEICO was trading at $42 per share, a multiple of about 8 times its recent earnings per share…(Buffett) thought the stock would be worth between $80 and $90 per share (within 5 years).” ------ If GEICO rose 50% next year when Buffett had 75% of his portfolio in GEICO he would grow his capital 37.5% just from GEICO’s contribution. If he spread his portfolio evenly over 5 stocks, then a 50% rise in GEICO’s price next year would only increase his capital by 10%. Buffett wasn’t interested in compounding his money at 10%. He was interested in compounding his money at 30% or 40%. He wasn’t going to buy something in a way that each idea would contribute that little. From the very beginning of his career, Buffett always felt safer in his best idea (that would compound his money the fastest) rather than spread out over half a dozen slightly lesser ideas. ...</snip> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 I work it out to the Government holding about 23% after this. The share count should drop by 165 m to around 1450 m. The accretion to book value will be roughly 3.50 per share. BerkshireMystery: to be fair Berkowitz runs a public mutual fund and is limited by regulation. Buffett was investing his own private cash at the time. By the time Buffett reached the low billions he was pretty diversified as well. As always I love your posts, and would vote you within our top few contibutors, if I could. :-). Al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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