AIG - American International Group

[berkshiremystery]

Question (for anyone):

 

Do these placements from the government have to cross a stock exchange, or are they direct transactions?

 

I assume they are direct private transactions with big institutional investors, because there is no spike in NYSE volume beyond these unusual 41 million shares traded.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AIG+Historical+Prices

 

And maybe somebody bought some single $5B package, and therefore AIG bought fewer shares back themself. Well,... but that might be only some remote chance, because who else beside WEB would be able to buy such a big package. We will see in the next 13F's. I can have dreams,... so don't take me too serious on my guessing game... LOL

[dcollon]

It's a follow on offering and any institution/large investor can participate if they can get stock from the underwriters. 

 

This deal was well subscribed for and supposedly well placed.

[Uccmal]

Question (for anyone):

 

Do these placements from the government have to cross a stock exchange, or are they direct transactions?

 

I assume they are direct private transactions with big institutional investors, because there is no spike in NYSE volume beyond these unusual 41 million shares traded.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AIG+Historical+Prices

 

 

I think your right.  I looked at the volumes after the last offering and they were way below the amount of stock sold.  They spiked on the subsequent rally for a day or so, which they may do today, or not.

[mhdousa]

nervous? that it might go down? most of us want to buy more of it.

 

Excellent point.  That's what I get for posting when sleep-deprived.

[biaggio]

Question (for anyone):

 

Do these placements from the government have to cross a stock exchange, or are they direct transactions?

 

"Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. managed the offering, Treasury said. "

 

I think that placement sold directly to Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co.- then these guys will either sell to institutional clients, keep some, or sell into market for profit.

[berkshiremystery]

Feds say AIG stock sale locks in minimum $12.4-billion profit

 

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-aig-bailout-treasury-profit-20120910,0,6421410.story

 

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Plot Twist in the A.I.G. Bailout: It Actually Worked

 

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/plot-twist-in-the-a-i-g-bailout-it-actually-worked/

 

 

[hardincap]

anyone have an opinion on aig warrants vs stock at this point? warrants have run up quite alot the past few months vs stock.

[enoch01]

Feds say AIG stock sale locks in minimum $12.4-billion profit

 

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-aig-bailout-treasury-profit-20120910,0,6421410.story

 

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Plot Twist in the A.I.G. Bailout: It Actually Worked

 

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/plot-twist-in-the-a-i-g-bailout-it-actually-worked/

 

Now all we have to do is wait for the upgrades to come...

[txlaw]

AIG Stock Sale Repays Bailout as U.S. Government Profits

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-09-11/aig-stock-prices-at-32-50-share-as-treasury-cuts-stake.html

 

Makes sense.  Now the government/administration can point to AIG and say that they have fully recouped their investment and whatever extra proceeds they get will be pure profit.

 

GM and AIG will be mentioned for sure by Obama in the next three months.

[txlaw]

anyone have an opinion on aig warrants vs stock at this point? warrants have run up quite alot the past few months vs stock.

 

AIG warrants make up the largest percentage of my portfolio by far. 

 

I'm thinking about adding LEAPs rather than warrants at this point.

[Olmsted]

Wow - over one-third the market cap soaked up with barely a blip today.  One doesn't see that often.

[txlaw]

Wow - over one-third the market cap soaked up with barely a blip today.  One doesn't see that often.

 

It is amazing.

[fareastwarriors]

http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444017504577645782760641186.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

 

Wall Street underwriters exercised an option to buy additional shares of American International Group Inc. for $2.7 billion, taking the government's holdings down to just under 16%, the Treasury Department said Tuesday.

 

...

 

The sale included an option that allows underwriters to buy an additional 83.1 million AIG shares at the public offering price of $32.50 a share. The banks, brokers and advisers bought the full allotment, bringing the size of the sale to $20.7 billion.

 

 

[berkshiremystery]

I never did consider in my mind a dividend for AIG, but today Benmosche said that AIG might pay a dividend by next summer. Cheers!

 

---------

 

AIG may consider dividend next year: CEO

 

- The U.S. Treasury's sell-off of its position in American International Group is happening sooner than expected, and the company may be in a position to consider a dividend by next summer, Chief Executive Bob Benmosche said on Tuesday.

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aig-ceo-could-look-dividend-203904935.html

 

"I think they'll be out pretty quickly," Benmosche told cable television news network CNBC in an interview. He added that he expected the government could be out entirely by next summer, potentially by selling shares directly into the market rather than with a single large offering.

 

With the government out, Benmosche said AIG's focus would turn to considering a dividend, assuming capital positions and regulators allow for it by then.

 

"I believe, strategically, we should have a dividend on this stock," he said.

 

 

[nkp007]

I ignored AIG multiple times until about six months ago. I ignored people who said it was a value and  I ignored Berkowitz even though he was releasing data on why he believed AIG was a generational investment.

 

Even though I missed it numerous times, something eventually clicked. Sometimes the market gives you years to figure something out. Sometimes it simply begs you to figure it out.

 

Bank of America and AIG tarp warrants make up 50%+ of my liquid net worth.  I still think there is a long, long way to go. I want to make 10x my initial investment in the next 5-7 years.

[PlanMaestro]

Benmosche at CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48990617

[berkshiremystery]

How funny,... Fitch upgrades,... while at the same time S&P says outlook is negative for AIG after U.S. Threasury sale.

 

Fitch Upgrades Select AIG Ratings Following Government Sale and Deleveraging

 

http://www.heraldonline.com/2012/09/11/4254308/fitch-upgrades-select-aig-ratings.html

 

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S&P says outlook for AIG ratings is negative after U.S. share sale

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/11/us-aig-ratings-idUSBRE88A0ZW20120911

 

 

 

[gokou3]

I ignored AIG multiple times until about six months ago. I ignored people who said it was a value and  I ignored Berkowitz even though he was releasing data on why he believed AIG was a generational investment.

 

Even though I missed it numerous times, something eventually clicked. Sometimes the market gives you years to figure something out. Sometimes it simply begs you to figure it out.

 

Bank of America and AIG tarp warrants make up 50%+ of my liquid net worth.  I still think there is a long, long way to go. I want to make 10x my initial investment in the next 5-7 years.

 

This is how I feel as well.  I bought in the Jan 2014 $22 calls a few months ago.  Got a much better price than Berkowitz due to my procrastination.  Looking forward for AIG to get to >0.8X BV by expiration.

 

However, still haven't got myself comfortable enough for BAC yet, and it's possible that I will miss the boat.  Oh well, perhaps the market will start worrying about Europe again and driving everything indiscriminately down again.

[Uccmal]

I ignored AIG multiple times until about six months ago. I ignored people who said it was a value and  I ignored Berkowitz even though he was releasing data on why he believed AIG was a generational investment.

 

Even though I missed it numerous times, something eventually clicked. Sometimes the market gives you years to figure something out. Sometimes it simply begs you to figure it out.

 

Bank of America and AIG tarp warrants make up 50%+ of my liquid net worth.  I still think there is a long, long way to go. I want to make 10x my initial investment in the next 5-7 years.

 

Amen brother.... That is about my target arena.

 

Benmoche has now telegraped a dividend increase and more share buybacks.  He seems to be true to his word, and savvy enough to know whether it would be vetoed by Gov't.

[berkshiremystery]

I ignored AIG multiple times until about six months ago. I ignored people who said it was a value and  I ignored Berkowitz even though he was releasing data on why he believed AIG was a generational investment.

 

Even though I missed it numerous times, something eventually clicked. Sometimes the market gives you years to figure something out. Sometimes it simply begs you to figure it out.

 

Bank of America and AIG tarp warrants make up 50%+ of my liquid net worth.  I still think there is a long, long way to go. I want to make 10x my initial investment in the next 5-7 years.

 

Amen brother.... That is about my target arena.

 

Benmoche has now telegraped a dividend increase and more share buybacks.  He seems to be true to his word, and savvy enough to know whether it would be vetoed by Gov't.

 

You all seem so greedy these days...  ;D

 

 

 

[racemize]

Benmosche at CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48990617

 

Sounds like more buybacks are pretty much gone until stress tests or 2013?

 

"we're done buying for now--we've done our capital management of stock"  Then went on to mention they'll be out by mid next year and talked about Fed.  "When the fed arrives that they see a very strong capital base...that when we choose to buy back stock, once we do our testing..."

 

[PlanMaestro]

US Treasury infographic.

 

http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/aig-182-billion.aspx

 

Time to break the blog hiatus. Something probably tomorrow.

[racemize]

US Treasury infographic.

 

http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/aig-182-billion.aspx

 

Time to brake the blog hiatus. Something probably tomorrow.

 

looking forward to it.

[PlanMaestro]

Some people do not change their view even under overwhelming evidence.

 

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/09/andrew-ross-sorkins-bad-math-on-aig.html

 

Does not he recognize that what the government did was to take AIG over a bankruptcy / restructuring process under a different name? The original shareholders WILL NEVER SEE THEIR MONEY BACK  while a Chapter 11 process or most probably Chapter 7 could have had serious repercussions at the time. It is a similar type of intervention as the FDIC does with troubled banks because of the consequences to depositors and the economy.

 

We can discuss and disagree on whether Goldman should have been paid 100c on the dollar on their CDSs but that does not diminish the great success of Millstein, Benmosche and their teams

[fareastwarriors]

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000115092&play=1

 

for what it is worth...

 

Hank Greenberg interview from yesterday on CNBC.