racemize Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Raceme At the time of expiry book will also be up.Even if we assume that the book will be $100 at the expiry of warrants, it could trade at $200. Oh sure, I'm more comparing the current discounts to book of the two companies and the historical comparison of book value multiples in banking vs insurance. BAC has a higher current discount and I'm more willing to think it will be greater than book multiple (e.g., 1.3 or 1.5) over the long run. With AIG, I'm not as confident it gets over 1.0 of book, though it certainly had a high multiple in the past. (Mostly thinking of horizons at warrant expiry, though there is a two year bonus on AIG's) BAC will probably grow book at less than AIG though, given at least another year of issues for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-17/aig-warrants-reach-20-month-high-as-stock-gains American International Group Inc. (AIG) warrants jumped to a 20-month high as the stock rallies amid optimism for improved business performance as the U.S. winds down a bailout of the insurer. The warrants (2FWS) advanced 1.6 percent to $15.42 at 10:43 a.m. in New York. The contracts allow investors to buy AIG common stock at $45 apiece by Jan. 19, 2021. Shares of the New York- based insurer climbed 1.4 percent to $36.85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tng Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Well actually,... I currently get the gut feeling that AIG might be the grape harvest that might mature faster than BAC to intrinsic value. Despite I had a small overhang in BAC at my initial starting weightings in the last year. My first choice was BAC (1)... and thereafter AIG (2). But strangely, I witness in front of my eyes that my AIG matures faster in my portfolio. No wonder,.. Berkowitz had it 1/3 of his fund. Somehow he must have felt that AIG legacy issues compared with BAC's should be earlier left behind. But my full attention is still on BAC through my still bigger portfolio weighting. I look on it like a little kid waiting to open his Christmas present,... and feeling well that my AIG toy train runs securely on autopilot. If I recall correctly, BAC is a broker-dealer and there are some regulations on the position sizes that mutual funds can hold on broker-dealers. I think Berkowitz has a maximum position in BAC already. I also thought that AIG would break out faster because BAC may still have depressed earnings (from lawsuits) for 1 or 2 more years before all the negative headlines go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cayale Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Goodbye, Gubmint... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-19/aig-chief-benmosche-says-treasury-may-sell-its-stake-this-year.html?cmpid=yhoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftcoast Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Goodbye, Gubmint... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-19/aig-chief-benmosche-says-treasury-may-sell-its-stake-this-year.html?cmpid=yhoo Benmosche, who is fighting cancer, said he would like to keep working for the insurer until 2014. “My energy levels are great, I feel pretty good about this job, I’m loving this job,” he said today. “I’ve told the board I would like to stay on to 2014 if they want and my health holds up.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 AIG could end up buying back another 100m shares from the treasury sales if they buy 50% of the offering. This could be the last opportunity to buy AIG at this price.Once treasury is out totally, the price could go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mysticdrew Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 AIG could end up buying back another 100m shares from the treasury sales if they buy 50% of the offering. This could be the last opportunity to buy AIG at this price.Once treasury is out totally, the price could go up. Can they do that now that it's under Fed supervision? Don't they need to pass some Fed stress tests before they can buy back stock again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest rimm_never_sleeps Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 AIG could end up buying back another 100m shares from the treasury sales if they buy 50% of the offering. This could be the last opportunity to buy AIG at this price.Once treasury is out totally, the price could go up. I don't think they buy any more of us gov shares. bb said us gov could basically sell it into the market when the waiting period is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QLEAP Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Article on Benmosche: http://nymag.com/news/features/bob-benmosche-aig-2012-10/ thanks, this guy is so full of himself ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Article on Benmosche: http://nymag.com/news/features/bob-benmosche-aig-2012-10/ thanks, this guy is so full of himself ::) Thanks for sharing. He reminds me of Jamie Dimon. Say it as it is (at least in this interview). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 We don't need the arrogance or the attention. Does not he remember we have stress tests coming? Mr. wartime general … we have to negotiate the peace now. http://b-29s-over-korea.com/Why-Truman-Fired-General-MacArthur/Why-Truman-Fired-General-MacArthur.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204425904578072840147381684.html?mod=googlenews_wsj&mg=reno-wsj AIG Settles Death-Benefits Probe American International Group Inc. agreed to pay $11 million to resolve a multistate probe into its handling of death benefits, the second pact for state regulators this month as they push insurers to clear their books of overdue life-insurance payments. Under the settlement, AIG will use Social Security's Death Master File on a monthly basis and will perform a "thorough search" to identify beneficiaries and make payments to them, Florida officials said. For 36 months, AIG will provide the lead states in the task force with quarterly reports about the implementation of the agreement. Officials said it is too early to determine the total amount of money the insurer will pay out. But in California, one of the lead states in the probe, AIG will pay about $25 million to 30 million on an estimated 10 million policies that are past due, California's controller and insurance commissioner said Monday in a statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 W.R. Berkley Net Income Up 32% in Q3; Cyclical Change 'No Longer Hypothetical' http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2012/10/22/wr-berkley-net-income-up-32-in-q3-cyclical-change?utm_source=PC360DailyeNews&utm_medium=eNL&utm_campaign=PC360_eNLs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Time to check those plywood futures. This guy scared me: http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2012/06/06/industry-headed-for-bankruptcy-when-a-hurricane-hi New York City’s demography and geography are perfect for maximum destruction during a hurricane, Coch adds. And it doesn’t have to be what is known as a major hurricane of Category 3 or stronger. “A Category 2 in New York is equal to a Category 4 in Charleston,” Coch says. New York is low. It was built on rivers, and will be subject to freshwater flooding as well as surge from the ocean. The valuation of potentially-affected structures is very high and its tall buildings will bear the brunt of stronger winds. To get rich, Coch advices, “buy plywood futures” before a hurricane hits New York. New York is “headed for disaster,” and Coch thinks the city is due. When it happens, the industry will truly be tested because the U.S. has yet to see a major hurricane hit a major city. “You’re focused on frequency when you should be focused on the consequences,” he says. “Companies don’t do homework. Do good science. Sooner or later we’re going to run out of luck. ” The New York City area hasn’t been hit by a hurricane since 1938. Before that the city saw hurricanes in 1893 and 1821. Coch says this is more proof a significant storm is in the city’s future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 This was an interesting comment at the time. I hope everyone on the East Coast is doing OK. Flooding was not covered by private insurers in Katrina for the most part. Most Flood insurance in the United States is through the Federal Government (FEMA). The government will only offer $250,000 for building and $100,000 for contents. Above that, it is possible to obtain private insurance for excess of loss over that. But most p&c policies in the US specifically exclude flooding. Businesses also make business interruption claims if they carry that coverage. More on the National Flood Insurance Program http://www.corelogic.com/landing-pages/flood-services-faqs.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 7.3 Can flood insurance be purchased in an amount that exceeds the standard NFIP policy limit? Flood insurance through the NFIP is limited to the statutory limits (currently $250,000 structure/$100,000 contents for residential buildings; $500,000/$500,000 for non-residential). For property owners seeking additional coverage, "excess flood" coverage may be available. Unlike federal flood insurance, excess flood policies are underwritten by private carriers, so the amount and limitations of coverage varies. One company may write policies up to $75 million; another $1 million; another may only offer $250,000 above the NFIP limit. Annual premiums may range from a few hundred dollars to several thousand dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/aig-says-sandy-cost-to-be-similar-to-irene-below-tsunami.html?cmpid=yhoo We'll see if these estimates hold, but so far the company isn't estimating massive losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/10-2/20121030_sandy2.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Benmosche to be on CNBC in a few minutes to discuss earnings... 4:04 PM AIG (AIG): Q3 EPS $1.00 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $8.75B beats by $40M. Book value/share of $61.49, up 10% Q/Q. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Pretty good earnings : http://www.4-traders.com/AMERICAN-INTERNATIONAL-GR-4815/news/American-International-Group-Inc-AIG-Reports-Third-Quarter-2012-Net-Income-of-$1-9-Billion-15451079/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Shareholder equity is down to $101B from $104B at the end of 2Q.I do not know the reason.Need to dog deeper. Combined ration for Chartis at 105, still very high.I would have liked to see it going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Shareholder equity is down to $101B from $104B at the end of 2Q.I do not know the reason.Need to dog deeper. Combined ration for Chartis at 105, still very high.I would have liked to see it going down. looks like some of the combined ratio being > 100 came from the increase in expense ratio (~3 points). I believe they said this would happen and then it would drop off again in the next few quarters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Shareholder equity is down to $101B from $104B at the end of 2Q.I do not know the reason.Need to dog deeper. Remember, they did spend $8 Billion buying back their own stock during the quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Looks like higher expense ratio for commercial insurance due to higher commissions. Commercial Insurance Quarterly and Year-to-Date Expense Ratios The expense ratio increased by 3.5 points and 4.8 points in the three- and nine-month periods ended September 30, 2012, respectively, primarily due to an increase in acquisition costs related to AIG Property Casualty’s strategy of growing higher value lines, which typically incur higher commission rates. In addition, ceding commissions decreased as a result of restructuring of the Property reinsurance program as part of the strategic decision to retain more profitable business while continuing to manage aggregate exposures. Acquisition expenses for the three- and nine-month periods ended September 30, 2012 increased the expense ratio by approximately 2.6 points and approximately 3.0 points, respectively, compared to the same periods in the prior year. Further, increases in bad debt expense of approximately $27 million and $146 million contributed approximately 0.6 points and 0.9 points to the expense ratio increase in the three- and nine-month periods ended September 30, 2012, respectively. The remainder of the expense ratio increase was primarily due to higher personnel costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Hi The decrease in equity from 104B to 101B is due to change in accounting for the costs.(Page 84 of 3Q 10Q) http://www.aigcorporate.com/investors/2012_November/Q32012_10Q.pdf As discussed in Note 2 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, AIG retrospectively adopted an accounting standard on January 1, 2012 that amended the accounting for costs incurred by insurance companies that can be capitalized in connection with acquiring or renewing insurance contracts. The impact to AIG shareholders’ equity and Net income (loss) attributable to AIG previously reported in 2011 is summarized below: AIG shareholders’ equity as previously reported $ 104,951 Impact of adoption of new standard on AIG Shareholders’ equity (3,413) AIG shareholders’ equity as currently reported $ 101,538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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