Jump to content

AIG - American International Group


PlanMaestro

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Do any of you tech gurus know how to pull data into excel?  I put it in by hand now and if there was an automated way it would save me alot of time.  TIA.

 

Packer

 

Sorry, I don't really use Excel; a google search for "how to stock quotes in excel" shows quite a few options.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I use some simple excel spreadsheet to keep track of companies on my "wish list" and "watch list". It's easy to pull in stock prices:

 

1) click on DATA menu on excel

2) click IMPORT EXTERNAL DATA

3) click IMPORT DATA

 

follow the menu's prompts, and you'll be good to go.

 

:D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I use some simple excel spreadsheet to keep track of companies on my "wish list" and "watch list". It's easy to pull in stock prices:

 

1) click on DATA menu on excel

2) click IMPORT EXTERNAL DATA

3) click IMPORT DATA

 

follow the menu's prompts, and you'll be good to go.

 

:D

 

Also in Excel Go>Data>(Get External Data) From Web>Type in finance.yahoo.com in the address bar >Type in the relevant ticker > you will be presented with your webpage with little yellow boxes with arrows in them. Clicking on the arrows will change it into green ticks, which would import that data for you.

 

Once you've done that, in future, you will just click on refresh all to update or you can set it that it updates every time you open the workbook.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What do others think the fair value of the warrant is?

 

Even after accounting for the higher dividend strike readjustment hurdle on AIG vs BAC ($0.675 vs $0.04), I see the AIG warrants as undervalued. They are both similarly out of the money, with similar valuation discounts on the common, yet AIG warrant premium appears to be trading at a discount to the BAC warrant premium. In my fair value estimate, I see AIG warrants trading north of $17, given today's common price.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-01/aig-s-united-guaranty-loses-appeal-of-45-million-award.html

 

 

.AIG’s United Guaranty Loses Appeal of $45 Million Award

 

An American International Group Inc. (AIG) unit lost a bid to overturn a court award of more than $45 million to SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) for refusing to cover losses tied to borrower defaults on mortgages.

 

A federal appeals court in Richmond, Virginia, today ruled that AIG’s United Guaranty unit violated the terms of its contract with SunTrust by failing to pay for the losses. The 2-1 decision also reinstated a counterclaim that United Guaranty filed against SunTrust over payment of premiums.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/02/05/aig-fortress-unit-test-abs-with-personal-loan-securitization/

 

The 190,627 loans in the Springleaf deal have an average FICO credit score of 602, in line with many subprime auto ABS. But the average coupon of 25% on Springleaf's personal loans is above that on even "deep subprime" auto loans, probably because there is no collateral for 10% of the issue, an analyst said.

 

The "A" rated slice of the debt may yield near 2.5%, or 2 percentage points over an interest-rate benchmark, according to price talk circulated to investors. Similarly-rated but slightly longer-term debt within Santander's issue sold at a 1.775% yield.

 

Excess interest revenue, support from $58 million of loans not in the bond and a $6.6 million reserve account help offset investor risks, according to Standard & Poor's, which according to a presale document is expected to rate the issue from single-A to single-B.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eric - did you buy common or warrants? Looks like the commons are more interesting now.

 

Calls, 2015

 

Wow, on December 11th the warrants closed at $14.45. 

 

I had purchased $33 strike 2015 calls instead and I closed them out this morning for a 30% gain.  I reinvested the proceeds into the warrants at roughly $14.45 -- the same price offered as when I bought the calls!

 

Nice  ;D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eric - did you buy common or warrants? Looks like the commons are more interesting now.

 

Calls, 2015

 

Wow, on December 11th the warrants closed at $14.45. 

 

I had purchased $33 strike 2015 calls instead and I closed them out this morning for a 30% gain.  I reinvested the proceeds into the warrants at roughly $14.45 -- the same price offered as when I bought the calls!

 

Nice  ;D

 

Eric,

 

Any reason why you don't just buy the common, besides the leverage?  Where do you see the warrants trading at?  If you had to choose between between the BAC warrants or AIG warrants, which one would you choose?

 

TIA

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eric - did you buy common or warrants? Looks like the commons are more interesting now.

 

Calls, 2015

 

Wow, on December 11th the warrants closed at $14.45. 

 

I had purchased $33 strike 2015 calls instead and I closed them out this morning for a 30% gain.  I reinvested the proceeds into the warrants at roughly $14.45 -- the same price offered as when I bought the calls!

 

Nice  ;D

 

Eric,

 

Any reason why you don't just buy the common, besides the leverage?  Where do you see the warrants trading at?  If you had to choose between between the BAC warrants or AIG warrants, which one would you choose?

 

TIA

 

I am with the warrants for the long term leverage.  I'm just a nobody, but I figure the AIG warrants will most likely return more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Return ,

I would conclude that my calculation  the same as yours (keep in mind as a benefit AIG.W  longer vs BAC.WSA,)

However, what puzzles me is that..why MR .Market  does not see it ?

 

Probably the same reason the AIG common is still at half book, even though we are 90% through the turn-around.  Comparing to BAC, there isn't that many things to take care of any more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the liquidity of the warrants: I've currently got an open order at the current price to sell 1000 warrants (i.e. the current price is 14.5 and my limit price is 14.5).  However, the order is only partially filling.  I'm wondering how Berkowitz is going to eventually get rid of these when they are so thinly traded and he owns 1/3 of the outstanding?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the liquidity of the warrants: I've currently got an open order at the current price to sell 1000 warrants (i.e. the current price is 14.5 and my limit price is 14.5).  However, the order is only partially filling.  I'm wondering how Berkowitz is going to eventually get rid of these when they are so thinly traded and he owns 1/3 of the outstanding?

 

Perhaps by exercising them....?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the liquidity of the warrants: I've currently got an open order at the current price to sell 1000 warrants (i.e. the current price is 14.5 and my limit price is 14.5).  However, the order is only partially filling.  I'm wondering how Berkowitz is going to eventually get rid of these when they are so thinly traded and he owns 1/3 of the outstanding?

 

Perhaps by exercising them....?

 

I might be wrong but I thought part of his reason for holding the warrants is the leverage and increased returns he expects them to provide vs the common.  By exercising them and paying the strike for the common, wouldn't he lose out on that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the liquidity of the warrants: I've currently got an open order at the current price to sell 1000 warrants (i.e. the current price is 14.5 and my limit price is 14.5).  However, the order is only partially filling.  I'm wondering how Berkowitz is going to eventually get rid of these when they are so thinly traded and he owns 1/3 of the outstanding?

 

Perhaps by exercising them....?

 

I might be wrong but I thought part of his reason for holding the warrants is the leverage and increased returns he expects them to provide vs the common.  By exercising them and paying the strike for the common, wouldn't he lose out on that?

 

When he exercises them, he will have already gotten the benefit of the leverage.  He'll just need the capital to do the excersizing in 2021.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the liquidity of the warrants: I've currently got an open order at the current price to sell 1000 warrants (i.e. the current price is 14.5 and my limit price is 14.5).  However, the order is only partially filling.  I'm wondering how Berkowitz is going to eventually get rid of these when they are so thinly traded and he owns 1/3 of the outstanding?

 

Perhaps by exercising them....?

 

I might be wrong but I thought part of his reason for holding the warrants is the leverage and increased returns he expects them to provide vs the common.  By exercising them and paying the strike for the common, wouldn't he lose out on that?

 

When he exercises them, he will have already gotten the benefit of the leverage.  He'll just need the capital to do the excersizing in 2021.

 

Somebody a while back explained that the company will just distribute shares to you at expiry if you don't exercise.  So say the stock is at $120 and the strike is at $40.  They'll just distribute $80 worth of stock to you.  That way you don't need any capital to exercise them. 

 

Is this information accurate?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest wellmont

Regarding the liquidity of the warrants: I've currently got an open order at the current price to sell 1000 warrants (i.e. the current price is 14.5 and my limit price is 14.5).  However, the order is only partially filling.  I'm wondering how Berkowitz is going to eventually get rid of these when they are so thinly traded and he owns 1/3 of the outstanding?

 

Perhaps by exercising them....?

 

I might be wrong but I thought part of his reason for holding the warrants is the leverage and increased returns he expects them to provide vs the common.  By exercising them and paying the strike for the common, wouldn't he lose out on that?

 

he could exercise them close to expiration.

he could call GS any time and say I need to sell a block of aig warrants.

he could call the company and say would you like to buy my warrants.

he could sell some warrants on the day aig is added to s n p 500, or any day he notices big volume in the issue.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the liquidity of the warrants: I've currently got an open order at the current price to sell 1000 warrants (i.e. the current price is 14.5 and my limit price is 14.5).  However, the order is only partially filling.  I'm wondering how Berkowitz is going to eventually get rid of these when they are so thinly traded and he owns 1/3 of the outstanding?

 

Lower it a little and I'll take 'em. I have an order pending...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the liquidity of the warrants: I've currently got an open order at the current price to sell 1000 warrants (i.e. the current price is 14.5 and my limit price is 14.5).  However, the order is only partially filling.  I'm wondering how Berkowitz is going to eventually get rid of these when they are so thinly traded and he owns 1/3 of the outstanding?

 

Lower it a little and I'll take 'em. I have an order pending...

 

Yeah, I was about to say, it seems like someone on this board would buy them.  Any reason for selling them at this level?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...