benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Starr Gets Boost From U.S. Documents in AIG Bailout Case http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-25/starr-gets-boost-from-u-s-documents-in-aig-bailout-case.html How does one estimate the risk and potential damage here? does AIG get docked for 25 billion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 For those with AIG, AIG-WT holdings looks like AIG is about to "breakout" to the upside. As a result I would assume we should see some nice appreciation with the warrants in 2015 although after reading ERICOPOLYs post Im not sure I understand cost of leverage as well anymore. :o At a minimum it appears management is heavily committed to a large buyback and prices have stayed relatively constant allowing the buyback of more shares. I believe a portion of the AER lock up expires this spring/summer so we should see the buyback get a boost for moderate period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 For those with AIG, AIG-WT holdings looks like AIG is about to "breakout" to the upside. As a result I would assume we should see some nice appreciation with the warrants in 2015 although after reading ERICOPOLYs post Im not sure I understand cost of leverage as well anymore. :o At a minimum it appears management is heavily committed to a large buyback and prices have stayed relatively constant allowing the buyback of more shares. I believe a portion of the AER lock up expires this spring/summer so we should see the buyback get a boost for moderate period of time. trying to get some Jan/17 leap, but didn't fill today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buylowersellhigh Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Uccmal, What do think of AIG here? Probably not too much different than how the banks are reporting. Thanks for all the replies. Good food for thought. Right now the 2017s are seeming a little tight. $7.00 for the time value. If things dont execute perfectly things could get tight. I am happy enough waiting for a pullback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What do you guys think of AIG's longer term perspective if interest rate remains this low? AIG makes most of its money from fixed income assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Citi sees price target of 68 and kitchen sink quarter http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/02/5200435/citi-sees-aig-as-major-value-opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJDelphi Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Bruce Berkowitz conference call staring in a few. Since it's a 47% position for him I'm sure he will have something to say about AIG. http://www.fairholmefunds.com/confcall2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Bruce Berkowitz conference call staring in a few. Since it's a 47% position for him I'm sure he will have something to say about AIG. http://www.fairholmefunds.com/confcall2015 Thanks for posting. It reminded me to tune in for Bruce's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Can someone post a transcript of the call here please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Ive looked for a transcript also but cant find one, even on fairholme website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Replay of call http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/02/bruce-berkowitz-sears-lifetime-opportunity/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Results out http://www.aig.com/Chartis/internet/US/en/AIG%20PR_Q4%202014_tcm3171-662518.pdf Combined ratio improving. Will buy back shares for 2.5 B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RhubarbXIV Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not thrilled with the trend in prior year loss reserving, though. What kind of crap were they writing? (he asks rhetorically) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agree but the stock wouldn't sell at such a discount to BV if the cleaning was over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am not impressed with much of anything here. Me thinks the best part of this was the trip from the 30s to the 50s. The rest is going to be harder won. The combined ratios are sort of pathetic. Others are reporting CRs in the 90s. There is no excuse for this. They were reaching for market share by the looks of it in past years. This is not really news. We heard it as rumours in 2009/2010. The share buyback is sort of moribund. By my calculations they retired just under 3% of their shares last year, net. Okay, but not stellar. I still hold warrants and some common that I will keep but I am exiting all of my Leaps positions. The stock price will likely continue to bounce between 48 and 55 for awhile. Maybe BB is right by 2021 but at what opportunity cost elsewhere. He is deep in the money in his warrants, and only needs a slow, steady stock increase to come out way ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I wasn't exactly thrilled with results but looks like market/ a couple big buyers are. Lots of steady volume and big reversal this morning with buyers. Maybe market believes prior year under reserving largely uncounted for and company much leaner after balance sheet work? Said 6-7B total buyback/div on conference call. Divs are are $720 mill per year and decreasing with buyback. That does not account for AER shares also. So if and when they monitize that and your looking at ~10B of potential buy back. Thats what, 190 million shares at today's prices if price stays flat? So in most optimistic scenario 14-15% of shares bought back if prices stay flat in low 50s way under book value including AOCI and DTA? Non monitizing AER and say 6.3B of buyback in 2015 at these prices allows you to buy back 9% of shares. Im exclusively in warrants so with just over 6 years to go Id be happy with 9-15% of shares bought back with a flat share price in 2015. Looks like they are going to concentrate on lowering expenses over next 3 years at 3-5% decrease/year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I calculated they bought back 6% of shares in 2014. I need to re-check... I'd agree with all your comments. They need to get these combined ratios fixed - maybe that is the opportunity here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I calculated they bought back 6% of shares in 2014. I need to re-check... I'd agree with all your comments. They need to get these combined ratios fixed - maybe that is the opportunity here?? I used the word "retired" not buyback. I took 4th q average shares divided by 4th Q 2013 outstanding year over year. Edit: I used the wrong column. It is around 4% which is a little better. Still means they issued 50% as many shares as they bought back comparing buy backs against issuances. 1.412 b shares in 2014 Q4 versus 1.481 shares in 2013 Q4. From observation with Ffh combined ratios can take years to bring down. And this has been a benign catastrophe environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 My next question is: What is the real book value? It seems reasonable to include Deferred tax assets, but is it reasonable to include Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income. Maybe its not relevant with a PE below 10. I still think the rate of improvement slows. A good investment but not so good using options? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hi Al, I also currently hold warrants and leaps and I am a bit worried as well however AIG announced they are targeting $6-$7B in dividends/share repurchase +this does not include the proceeds of AerCap ($4B) so this year there will be a very large capital return skewed towards share repurchases. That alone is the catalyst. IMO. I will continue to hold my leaps which are essentially flat at this time and we should see a significant gain. Tks, S The share buyback is sort of moribund. By my calculations they retired just under 3% of their shares last year, net. Okay, but not stellar. I still hold warrants and some common that I will keep but I am exiting all of my Leaps positions. The stock price will likely continue to bounce between 48 and 55 for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Fannie/Freddie Investor here....What are the odds on a Greenberg Victory in his AIG cast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Fannie/Freddie Investor here....What are the odds on a Greenberg Victory in his AIG cast? That's the 6000-dollar question. Government will be scolded, but I doubt that there is real monetary damage being awarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 At some point, the costs/implications of a Greenberg victory may prevent his firm from winning their case without an extremely compelling case. I know this is cynical but history generally supports benchmark in cases this important. Greenberg will likely have a moral victory without the monetary windfall in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbharadwaj Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Bon Benmosche is no more https://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-aig-ceo-bob-benmosche-182854929.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Bon Benmosche is no more https://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-aig-ceo-bob-benmosche-182854929.html Oh no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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