theando Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 http://dl.dropbox.com/u/32606407/032512%20AIG%20%20DB.pdf Link to the DB report. I think it is a decent report. I think you ignore px targets. No analyst is going to put a target of $60+ on this due to reputation risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 http://dl.dropbox.com/u/32606407/032512%20AIG%20%20DB.pdf Link to the DB report. I think it is a decent report. I think you ignore px targets. No analyst is going to put a target of $60+ on this due to reputation risk. I just read the DB report. Well, done. There are sure some variables in the equation to the actual outcome depending at what prices they can repurchase their shares, but in general I personally assume that the intrinsic value of AIG is a way, way much higher north than my current guesstimate of BV $58.52 (at the end of the 1st qtr 2012). I sleep very well, owning AIG common & also the warrants, while having in mind Buffett's IBM repurchase thesis from his current letter to shareholders. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 AIG asbestos http://www.towerswatson.com/assets/pdf/5891/Towers-Watson-Insights-Asbestos-Reserves.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 AIG asbestos http://www.towerswatson.com/assets/pdf/5891/Towers-Watson-Insights-Asbestos-Reserves.pdf Good deep diving MrB. Did not AIG reinsure their asbestos exposure with Berkshire? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-20/berkshire-gets-1-65-billion-in-aig-deal-as-buffett-takes-asbestos-risk.html Has anyone seen something similar for workers comp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 All I know is that I don't know. What does the Berkshire deal mean? The deal “will reduce the risk of future adverse development of U.S. asbestos exposures,” Chartis Chief Executive Officer Peter Hancock said in the statement. I would have preferred he used the word "eliminate" $1.65Bn to take on a maximum liability of $3.5Bn and that is on the back of $1.4Bn reserve strengthening in 2010. Maybe they did put a cap on it. So although they most likely did rid themselves of the problem, I don't think it is certain. However, I do think it is most likely that it will be a drain at worst and at best no problem at all going forward. Not that big a deal in the bigger scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I have a question on recent repurchases from Treasury.My understanding is that AIG repurchased shares worth $3B from Treasury .My question is by how much reduction in share count will it result in.AIG has authorization of buyback for $1B. Will this result in buyback of shares worth $1B (approx 33m). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I have a question on recent repurchases from Treasury.My understanding is that AIG repurchased shares worth $3B from Treasury .My question is by how much reduction in share count will it result in.AIG has authorization of buyback for $1B. Will this result in buyback of shares worth $1B (approx 33m). I believe the 1 B authorization was included / used in the 3 billion buy back. Benmosche has been talking about 20-25 billion in buybacks over the next 2 years (and it looks like most at the front end). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
treasurehunt Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I have a question on recent repurchases from Treasury.My understanding is that AIG repurchased shares worth $3B from Treasury .My question is by how much reduction in share count will it result in.AIG has authorization of buyback for $1B. Will this result in buyback of shares worth $1B (approx 33m). AIG bought back about 103.5 million shares from the US treasury. This repurchase takes the share count from 1.9 billion to 1.8 billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Maybe they did put a cap on it. So although they most likely did rid themselves of the problem, I don't think it is certain. However, I do think it is most likely that it will be a drain at worst and at best no problem at all going forward. Buffett likes his caps, especially after 9/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I have a question on recent repurchases from Treasury.My understanding is that AIG repurchased shares worth $3B from Treasury .My question is by how much reduction in share count will it result in.AIG has authorization of buyback for $1B. Will this result in buyback of shares worth $1B (approx 33m). AIG bought back about 103.5 million shares from the US treasury. This repurchase takes the share count from 1.9 billion to 1.8 billion. The $3B buyback takes BVPS from $55.33 at YE2011 to $56.66, an increase of $1.33. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I finally got back into AIG warrants and calls this morning. Thanks to everyone for keeping the information flowing on latest developments on repurchase front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 eric which call did you buy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I bought $10 strike 2014. I paid a $1 premium which is like borrowing $10 per share at 5% interest rate paid in full upfront and giving up any dividends (looks like all cash is coming back via buybacks). 1.5x leverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
treasurehunt Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 What exactly is the bear case on AIG? The consensus on the board seems to be that AIG is very cheap, and I have no disagreement with that claim. In fact I have been buying AIG stock recently. But why is the stock trading at such a depressed price? I can think of some reasons, but none of them is very convincing. 1) The treasury owns 70% of outstanding shares and they seem happy enough selling at $29 per share, so there is no reason to buy until they are close to done selling. 2) AIG is a complex company that has had significant reserving issues as recently as 2010, so who knows how realistic the liabilities are? Maybe much of the book value will vanish into thin air. 3) AIG will be regulated as a SIFI and forced to hold so much capital and be so restricted in their activities that they won't be very profitable. 4) The insurance business is very unattractive nowadays with inadequate rates and very low returns on assets thanks to low interest rates. The complexity argument is the only one that has some merit in my opinion. AIG is simpler now than it was a few years ago, and it is getting simpler still, but it's still a pretty complex company for me to analyze. So my investment is based on a heavy dose of trust in management. But like most others on the board, I have a very positive impression of Benmosche. Peter Hancock has a good reputation as well. So where does all the pessimism come from? Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 What exactly is the bear case on AIG? The consensus on the board seems to be that AIG is very cheap, and I have no disagreement with that claim. In fact I have been buying AIG stock recently. But why is the stock trading at such a depressed price? I can think of some reasons, but none of them is very convincing. 1) The treasury owns 70% of outstanding shares and they seem happy enough selling at $29 per share, so there is no reason to buy until they are close to done selling. 2) AIG is a complex company that has had significant reserving issues as recently as 2010, so who knows how realistic the liabilities are? Maybe much of the book value will vanish into thin air. 3) AIG will be regulated as a SIFI and forced to hold so much capital and be so restricted in their activities that they won't be very profitable. 4) The insurance business is very unattractive nowadays with inadequate rates and very low returns on assets thanks to low interest rates. The complexity argument is the only one that has some merit in my opinion. AIG is simpler now than it was a few years ago, and it is getting simpler still, but it's still a pretty complex company for me to analyze. So my investment is based on a heavy dose of trust in management. But like most others on the board, I have a very positive impression of Benmosche. Peter Hancock has a good reputation as well. So where does all the pessimism come from? Any thoughts? After doing all the reading/research I have, I'm having trouble with the bear case too. One thing I would add to your list--there's also the stigma associated with it, plus in the past it was very hard to analyze with all the preferred shares/SPVs/partial stakes. At this point though, it seems pretty straightforward and everything is on track--2.5 core business and they just have to do some sales/IPOs, buy back shares and operate normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Some interesting articles about AIG AIG Shares Fail To Reflect Improving Fundamentals http://seekingalpha.com/article/462451-aig-shares-fail-to-reflect-improving-fundamentals?source=yahoo Analysis: How AIG will - or won't - generate a bailout profit http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-aig-wont-generate-bailout-071343030.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 What exactly is the bear case on AIG? The consensus on the board seems to be that AIG is very cheap, and I have no disagreement with that claim. In fact I have been buying AIG stock recently. But why is the stock trading at such a depressed price? I can think of some reasons, but none of them is very convincing. 1) The treasury owns 70% of outstanding shares and they seem happy enough selling at $29 per share, so there is no reason to buy until they are close to done selling. 2) AIG is a complex company that has had significant reserving issues as recently as 2010, so who knows how realistic the liabilities are? Maybe much of the book value will vanish into thin air. 3) AIG will be regulated as a SIFI and forced to hold so much capital and be so restricted in their activities that they won't be very profitable. 4) The insurance business is very unattractive nowadays with inadequate rates and very low returns on assets thanks to low interest rates. The complexity argument is the only one that has some merit in my opinion. AIG is simpler now than it was a few years ago, and it is getting simpler still, but it's still a pretty complex company for me to analyze. So my investment is based on a heavy dose of trust in management. But like most others on the board, I have a very positive impression of Benmosche. Peter Hancock has a good reputation as well. So where does all the pessimism come from? Any thoughts? After doing all the reading/research I have, I'm having trouble with the bear case too. One thing I would add to your list--there's also the stigma associated with it, plus in the past it was very hard to analyze with all the preferred shares/SPVs/partial stakes. At this point though, it seems pretty straightforward and everything is on track--2.5 core business and they just have to do some sales/IPOs, buy back shares and operate normally. Any low ROE arguments are mitigated by the share price being at nearly 1/2 of book. Even a 7% ROE becomes 14% BV growth when entirely plowed back into shares. And there's heaps of cash going into the share repurchases soon. I sit pretty with the $10 calls because if the low ROE argument persists, and the share discount mitigation is long lasting, I worry not about losing at expiration (low strike). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 eric sorry for my ignorance (i am very new to options) i don't see 2014 call with a strike price of $10? i see striker of $22 at $10 per contract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Didn't see any post about the Fitch note on aircraft lessors' access to the capital markets. http://www.worldleasingnews.com/news/fitch-aircraft-lessors-increasingly-tap-capital-markets/ Hopefully, this bodes well for an IPO or outright sale of ILFC. I'm rooting for the AIG share price to stay below $30 for as long as possible while management has the opportunity to generate capital for share buybacks. It would also be nice if all my other positions worked out in the interim too, so that I can further increase my exposure to AIG. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I bought $10 strike 2014. I paid a $1 premium which is like borrowing $10 per share at 5% interest rate paid in full upfront and giving up any dividends (looks like all cash is coming back via buybacks). 1.5x leverage. Ericopoly,... you got me somehow confused,... ::) Have you really bought the deep in the money $10 strike 2014 AIG leaps,... don't they trade around $20-21 something,... ??? ... why leaps with such a low strike price? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 eric sorry for my ignorance (i am very new to options) i don't see 2014 call with a strike price of $10? i see striker of $22 at $10 per contract Hyten1,.. Yeah, got me confused, but there are $10 strike calls 2014, that is for sure. Maybe you have set your option screen settings wrong. Only the $10 strike, trade at $20-21 something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSArbitrage Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I think Eric posted his options believing he was posting in a BAC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I think Eric posted his options believing he was posting in a BAC thread. Well,... not sure, somehow, I feel he was posting in the right thread. Only we might misinterpret his words. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I bought $10 strike 2014. I paid a $1 premium which is like borrowing $10 per share at 5% interest rate paid in full upfront and giving up any dividends (looks like all cash is coming back via buybacks). 1.5x leverage. Ericopoly,... you got me somehow confused,... ::) Have you really bought the deep in the money $10 strike 2014 AIG leaps,... don't they trade around $20-21 something,... ??? ... why leaps with such a low strike price? Yes I bought the $10 strike 2014 AIG calls. I paid $20.20, $20.30, and $20.40. The low strike price is to do with the fact that I can't stomach more leverage given the other things that I own. It's still 1.5x leverage. I'm not exactly wearing the Granny panties here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 guys eric is right there is one for strike of $10 i had to change the filter for the online brokerage i used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now