Guest Quebec Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Looks like 10 millions shares traded on the US listing of RFP today. If not a fluke, that's 10% of the float. Anyone with a guess about what's going on ? (Hold some from fibrek buyout) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 anyone know what's going on in the last few days, tanking 20% and no news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 They did not get 90% on the second step vote to privatize Fibrek. They got 88.18%. I doubt this relates to the stock price drop but wonder what they'll have to do to complete the deal. I believe they needed 90% to compulsory force the remaining shareholders into accepting the offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000118143112053278/xslF345X03/rrd357555.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Fairfax is still buying RFP shares and now owns nearly 25%. Resolute has been buying back shares as well. http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000118143112063817/xslF345X03/rrd363055.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Hamilton Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Fairfax is still buying RFP shares and now owns nearly 25%. Resolute has been buying back shares as well. http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000118143112063817/xslF345X03/rrd363055.xml Fairfax hasn't been buying. Some of their pre-bankruptcy filings claims have finally been converted into shares. That said, this is a meaningful position for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ok. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Hamilton Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Anyone else notice that commodity lumber prices are up by $75 to $355 this quarter alone. That's $120 million in incremental annualized run rate EBITDA for RFP if it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JEast Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 From my anecdotal evidence, most real estate folks I talk to say that supply of housing (to sell) is very low in the southeast. They also note that construction of new housing is picking up. Maybe lumber prices will stabilize, but contingent on a possible recession in '13 though if the US fiscal policy has drastic cuts (i.e. reference the Richard Koo thesis). Cheers JEast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Hamilton Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Prem and Co add another ~920,000 shares to their collection. http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000118143112065658/xslF345X03/rrd363739.xml Addition was less than 1% of RFP shares outstanding which means FFH didn't have to update it's 12/11 13D/A. Perhaps far fetched, but any chance they buy this thing out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JEast Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 One never knows, but would think that the government/union/pension ties are too much for FFH to take on as a wholly owned company. Irrespective, I think the current management is moving at full steam in the right direction and is one of most undervalued stocks, outside of Japan, around. Of course, if we run into a recession next year it will languish but the downside risk looks worth the upside potential. Cheers JEast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Irrespective, I think the current management is moving at full steam in the right direction and is one of most undervalued stocks, outside of Japan, around. Of course, if we run into a recession next year it will languish but the downside risk looks worth the upside potential. I haven't been following RFP very closely. I'm now thinking maybe I should. Can you briefly explain the investment thesis for RFP? RFP at P/B 0.4 seems cheap compared to competitors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 RFP is the security I like most! Here are my notes from 2 months ago when I decided to grow it into my largest position. I had been following it for what seems like forever. (Heck, SFK had yet to be spun off!) The issues brought forward are always the same: pensions, unions and newsprint but there has to come a price where it's priced in right! Fairfax,Steelhead, Chou, Smith shareholders Fairfax adding recently .33 of book Cleaned up book following bankruptcy Low debt, paying debt Buying back Construction turn around Got fibrek cheap, hydro going online Got dolbeau cheap, hydro going online Pulp turn around Newsprint stable Major fiber access Peer stock rising Garneau seems on a mission Ignored sector Being sold by retired employees Being sold by former debt holders Tax loss selling No divi, cheap, Hated, beginning uptrend Concentrated shareholding makes takeover easy It should double from here and then we'll value from the results as they start and recurs. Might be a multibagger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Hamilton Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 RFP is the security I like most! Here are my notes from 2 months ago when I decided to grow it into my largest position. I had been following it for what seems like forever. (Heck, SFK had yet to be spun off!) The issues brought forward are always the same: pensions, unions and newsprint but there has to come a price where it's priced in right! Fairfax,Steelhead, Chou, Smith shareholders Fairfax adding recently .33 of book Cleaned up book following bankruptcy Low debt, paying debt Buying back Construction turn around Got fibrek cheap, hydro going online Got dolbeau cheap, hydro going online Pulp turn around Newsprint stable Major fiber access Peer stock rising Garneau seems on a mission Ignored sector Being sold by retired employees Being sold by former debt holders Tax loss selling No divi, cheap, Hated, beginning uptrend Concentrated shareholding makes takeover easy It should double from here and then we'll value from the results as they start and recurs. Might be a multibagger! I am a holder as well, but one has to remember $0 is always a potential right price! These guys own a lot of buggy whip assets with their paper machines. The faster the transition from paper to market/specialty pulp and sawmills the better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I am a holder as well, but one has to remember $0 is always a potential right price! These guys own a lot of buggy whip assets with their paper machines. The faster the transition from paper to market/specialty pulp and sawmills the better! We just did $0 ;-) And lets not forget power and pellets along for the transition. There's a lot of value in our huge and renewable fiber resource but I agree the transition has to continue at a fast clip. Maybe some day Pulp&Power will be more accurate than Pulp&Paper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JEast Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Recognize that this is a turnaround and 9 out of 10 turnarounds never turn. However, I like what management has done over the last 18 months given the difficult decisions that needed to be made. Zero is always a possibility, but at the present price the downside looks limited compared to the upside potential. This guy is an ugly duckling now but reason for the undervaluation. Come 2014 after a few more realignments, this equity may have some staying power with only a minor rebound in construction. Plus, any weakness in the Canadian dollar will go a long way too but not priced in yet. Cheers JEast Disclosure: Long RFP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Hamilton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Recognize that this is a turnaround and 9 out of 10 turnarounds never turn. However, I like what management has done over the last 18 months given the difficult decisions that needed to be made. Zero is always a possibility, but at the present price the downside looks limited compared to the upside potential. This guy is an ugly duckling now but reason for the undervaluation. Come 2014 after a few more realignments, this equity may have some staying power with only a minor rebound in construction. Plus, any weakness in the Canadian dollar will go a long way too but not priced in yet. Cheers JEast Disclosure: Long RFP Now at $391.60 on lumber. $180 million increase in annualized EBITDA off of Q3 run rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 You might want to look at all the transactions in Q4. Most would expect at least one or two unexpected write-offs to lower the cost base - & set up for a better 2013 ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JEast Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The increase in lumber prices is nice, but wonder if it is just temporary with the Sandy rebuild. Hard to think housing in the US will continue to rebound with austerity in the cards (increased taxes and reduced state spending) on the way in 2013. Cheers JEast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 You might want to look at all the transactions in Q4. Most would expect at least one or two unexpected write-offs to lower the cost base - & set up for a better 2013 ;) Agreed, I think Q4 will disappoint and we may get a dip. I've sold a third of my position and hope to reload in the 12.xx (I remember you managing to do this with success on fibrek and will give it a try!) Meanwhile, I was hoping that RFP would try to snatch FTP (Fortress Paper) when it was deep in the dump but that is getting more expensive every hour. RFP is still my largest position, while FTP is my second largest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Hamilton Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 You might want to look at all the transactions in Q4. Most would expect at least one or two unexpected write-offs to lower the cost base - & set up for a better 2013 ;) Agreed, I think Q4 will disappoint and we may get a dip. I've sold a third of my position and hope to reload in the 12.xx (I remember you managing to do this with success on fibrek and will give it a try!) Meanwhile, I was hoping that RFP would try to snatch FTP (Fortress Paper) when it was deep in the dump but that is getting more expensive every hour. RFP is still my largest position, while FTP is my second largest. The stock is trading ~$14, could be worth $40+ under right circumstances and you are worried about picking it up at 12.xx versus current prices...appears pennywise pound foolish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Quebec Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The stock is trading ~$14, could be worth $40+ under right circumstances and you are worried about picking it up at 12.xx versus current prices...appears pennywise pound foolish! You may well be right, and I run the risk of being humbled right here! This position became very large because I had dry powder and conviction to average down in 2012. Now it's back to large, with a nice cost basis, and some money for wait&see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JEast Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 A tuck-in purchase by RFP in the specialty papers. http://www.lesprom.com/news/Resolute_Forest_Products_announces_indefinite_idling_of_newsprint_machine_at_its_Calhoun_mill_in_Tennessee_55493/ Cheers JEast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Hamilton Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Prem keeps piling in! http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000120919113023719/xslF345X03/c529233_4x0.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Guys, where do u guys check the lumber price? Rising rate and weakening loonie should be helping this big time yet this is drifting lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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