Palantir Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Is Apple's main advantage its incredible supply chain and inventory management processes? Or is it the fact that they come up with great products consistently that people really want to buy? One of these is the advantage, and the other sustains the advantage. Same goes for Google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I would agree with the argument that low costs --> more R&D --> slightly better product --> somewhat of a moat. But... if a company develops better search than Google with higher costs, I will want to bet on better search. The company with the better search will be the market share winner, not the company with the lower costs. *Right now I think Google has the best search. Do you think search quality is a competitive advantage anymore? It seems to me that Google's brand power and ecosystem (Gmail, Google maps, etc.) is creating a switching cost for Google search users. Said differently, even if Bing is a better search engine, I won't use it because I use Gmail/Gmaps/Gdrive/Gdocs quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I would agree with the argument that low costs --> more R&D --> slightly better product --> somewhat of a moat. But... if a company develops better search than Google with higher costs, I will want to bet on better search. The company with the better search will be the market share winner, not the company with the lower costs. *Right now I think Google has the best search. Do you think search quality is a competitive advantage anymore? It seems to me that Google's brand power and ecosystem (Gmail, Google maps, etc.) is creating a switching cost for Google search users. Said differently, even if Bing is a better search engine, I won't use it because I use Gmail/Gmaps/Gdrive/Gdocs quite often. For google, search quality is still the moat that you have. Bing has to be a lot better for people to switch. I don't think that Gmail/Gdrive/Gdoc are sticky enough, because switching search is so simple that it's almost effortless. W/o search, google ad revenue (which is majority of their revenue) would have disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainman Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 For google, search quality is still the moat that you have. Bing has to be a lot better for people to switch. I don't think that Gmail/Gdrive/Gdoc are sticky enough, because switching search is so simple that it's almost effortless. W/o search, google ad revenue (which is majority of their revenue) would have disappeared. Not if you count the default search. These days I rarely go to google.com. I just type into the search bar. Either in Firefox, chrome or safari (or IE occasionally). Changing the default is not 'effortless' in that it involves the browser settings. In fact that's the reason Google proliferated these search entry points. I would argue that that's another element of their competitive advantage. Safari, Android, Chrome, Firefox, and even iPhone (I think) all default to Google search without ever having to type "google.com" in the location bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 For google, search quality is still the moat that you have. Bing has to be a lot better for people to switch. I don't think that Gmail/Gdrive/Gdoc are sticky enough, because switching search is so simple that it's almost effortless. W/o search, google ad revenue (which is majority of their revenue) would have disappeared. Not if you count the default search. These days I rarely go to google.com. I just type into the search bar. Either in Firefox, chrome or safari (or IE occasionally). Changing the default is not 'effortless' in that it involves the browser settings. In fact that's the reason Google proliferated these search entry points. I would argue that that's another element of their competitive advantage. Safari, Android, Chrome, Firefox, and even iPhone (I think) all default to Google search without ever having to type "google.com" in the location bar. If Bing is better than google, then i'm sure that microsoft have talented marketing people to get all these browers default settings to change to Bing. The problem is really that Bing can't beat google yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443684104578064671358259436.html?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Fxml%2Frss%2F3_7014+%28WSJ.com%3A+US+Business%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher Revenue growth was not a problem, profitability was. Mobile CPCs are lower, so as people transition to mobile CPCs decrease. Further, on mobile they have revenue sharing agreements with operators (one of the reasons why Android has grown so quickly). So while on the desktop, they keep almost all of their revenue, on mobile they don't. The technology cost to serve a search or an ad is only part of their cost. Well the CPC story isn't told entirely by mobile. There were also significant currency fluctuations that caused the CPC to drop. But yes, mobile is causing CPC to drop because fewer advertisers are bidding on mobile traffic. Last I checked, everybody in the tech world has a big hard-on for mobile technology and they tend to lead the pack with this kind of thing. Care to wager how long it's going to take before advertisers decide that they should attract more mobile traffic? Or do you think that advertising on mobile devices will never take off? My bet is that certain keywords on mobile will rise above their desktop counterparts, where others drop below. For example "french bistro" will probably be highly coveted in mobile form. Whereas "enterprise resource planning software" can likely get picked up on the cheap. There is a new cost coming up - device subsidies. They are subsidizing tablets and now laptops. And they are locked in a price war with Amazon. Amazon introduced the $199 Kindle, Google follows with the $199 Nexus 7. Amazon drops the price to $159, now Google is rumored to introduce a $99 Nexus tablet. They just introduced a $259 Samsung Chromebook. Acer and Samsung are not going to be selling their devices at cost, guess who is the sugar daddy? Where is the device subsidy cost in the earnings report? What is the figure? Currencies and mobile ad spending effect both revenues and profits. Why was revenue headed in one direction and profits in another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 For google, search quality is still the moat that you have. Bing has to be a lot better for people to switch. I don't think that Gmail/Gdrive/Gdoc are sticky enough, because switching search is so simple that it's almost effortless. W/o search, google ad revenue (which is majority of their revenue) would have disappeared. Not if you count the default search. These days I rarely go to google.com. I just type into the search bar. Either in Firefox, chrome or safari (or IE occasionally). Changing the default is not 'effortless' in that it involves the browser settings. In fact that's the reason Google proliferated these search entry points. I would argue that that's another element of their competitive advantage. Safari, Android, Chrome, Firefox, and even iPhone (I think) all default to Google search without ever having to type "google.com" in the location bar. Things will start looking different is Surface and Windows phone start catching on, wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Currencies and mobile ad spending effect both revenues and profits. Why was revenue headed in one direction and profits in another? :) If I give the answer to all of the easy ones, then you won't appreciate the work that goes into answering the hard ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 This part is getting a little bit tough for me to follow. Initially you had argued that competitors can just dump money into beating Google and therefore infrastructure doesn't count. Now you've reversed your position by saying that a competitor can't dump money into solving a problem because there is an upper bound to what a large team can achieve. Which do you actually believe? They can dump money into infrastructure and/or operating costs. The relative operating costs may be unimportant in predicting market share. Any company can try improve their R&D with the money hose... it may or may not work out for them. Anyways... we're going in circles here. Yes lower operating/infrastructure costs are an advantage. It's up to you if you want to pay attention to the subtleties. Do you think search quality is a competitive advantage anymore? It seems to me that Google's brand power and ecosystem (Gmail, Google maps, etc.) is creating a switching cost for Google search users. Said differently, even if Bing is a better search engine, I won't use it because I use Gmail/Gmaps/Gdrive/Gdocs quite often. I don't think brand matters too much? Look at how quickly ICQ, Myspace, Friendster, etc. went away. And in those cases there were higher switching costs. 2- Regarding the default search engine game... all the big search companies invest in toolbars and browsers and buying the default search (e.g. Facebook defaults to Bing because Bing paid for that). I think search quality wins though. Internet Explorer has very high market share... Bing market share is a small fraction of IE's even though Bing is the default search in IE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Anyways... we're going in circles here. Yes lower operating/infrastructure costs are an advantage. It's up to you if you want to pay attention to the subtleties. When that subtlety costs the business $3bn/year... yes I want to pay attention to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am seriously considering getting a Chromebook and selling my Nexus 7, anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am seriously considering getting a Chromebook and selling my Nexus 7, anyone else? I played with the new chrome book this weekend. It's really cheap and it feels really cheap. I am keeping my nexus 7 until the nexus 10 comes out or I get a convertible windows 8 ultrabook. The nexus 7 is an awesome device and made me stop using an ipad 2. I think chrome Os is a nice concept for a terminal like in a library but doesn't have the flexibility to be a primary device and is crippled without wifi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am seriously considering getting a Chromebook and selling my Nexus 7, anyone else? I played with the new chrome book this weekend. It's really cheap and it feels really cheap. I am keeping my nexus 7 until the nexus 10 comes out or I get a convertible windows 8 ultrabook. The nexus 7 is an awesome device and made me stop using an ipad 2. I think chrome Os is a nice concept for a terminal like in a library but doesn't have the flexibility to be a primary device and is crippled without wifi. wait, it doesn't have wifi? That seems insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am seriously considering getting a Chromebook and selling my Nexus 7, anyone else? I played with the new chrome book this weekend. It's really cheap and it feels really cheap. I am keeping my nexus 7 until the nexus 10 comes out or I get a convertible windows 8 ultrabook. The nexus 7 is an awesome device and made me stop using an ipad 2. I think chrome Os is a nice concept for a terminal like in a library but doesn't have the flexibility to be a primary device and is crippled without wifi. wait, it doesn't have wifi? That seems insane! It has wifi. Sorry. I meant that the chrome book is crippled if you are not in wifi range. It doesn't have the off-line capabilities of a tablet or traditional laptop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am seriously considering getting a Chromebook and selling my Nexus 7, anyone else? I played with the new chrome book this weekend. It's really cheap and it feels really cheap. I am keeping my nexus 7 until the nexus 10 comes out or I get a convertible windows 8 ultrabook. The nexus 7 is an awesome device and made me stop using an ipad 2. I think chrome Os is a nice concept for a terminal like in a library but doesn't have the flexibility to be a primary device and is crippled without wifi. wait, it doesn't have wifi? That seems insane! It has wifi. Sorry. I meant that the chrome book is crippled if you are not in wifi range. It doesn't have the off-line capabilities of a tablet or traditional laptop. There is a 3G version ($330) where you get two years worth of data embedded into the price. Nevertheless, there's so much being released this month that I'm waiting to see what exactly is in the market for the holiday season. A 10-inch, "retina screen" Nexus tablet could make me dump my iPad 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrankArabia Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 i much rather buy an ultrabook......i want to see this windows 8 looks pretty cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am seriously considering getting a Chromebook and selling my Nexus 7, anyone else? Well, people are selling their Nexus 7s alright: http://venturebeat.com/2012/10/22/nexus-7s-join-old-ipads-on-the-auction-block-before-apples-october-23-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Things heating up for Google on the legal front: http://paidcontent.org/2012/10/30/google-news-wars-are-here-again-france-brazil-germany-front-up/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-01/ftc-staff-said-to-formally-recommend-google-patent-suit.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 When it rains it pours: The ITC is also getting in the game. This explains why Google mysteriously withdrew its lawsuit a while back: http://venturebeat.com/2012/11/01/now-google-is-the-patent-bad-boy-itc-staff-want-to-sue-android-maker/ Also: http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/01/google-france-faces-fine-of-1-billion-for-tax-noncompliance-google-denies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 http://www.extremetech.com/computing/139458-android-now-powers-75-of-all-smartphones-sold-are-we-heading-towards-a-google-monopoly With numbers like these, the whole issue about App inventory will go away pretty soon. Keep in mind that all web pages and Windows apps in the world are designed to support fragmentation well beyond what the Android market showcases. And at 136 million androids going out per quarter, more android phones are being sold than windows pcs. Crazy. I think we will see the tablet market take the same shape in the next couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 What is he smoking? http://pandodaily.com/2012/11/02/googles-john-lagerling-forget-about-hardware-we-bought-motorola-mobility-for-the-patents/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 And at 136 million androids going out per quarter, more android phones are being sold than windows pcs. Crazy. I'm not surprised by that (being that the phone upgrade cycle is much shorter than the computer upgrade cycle). I'd kindof like to see Google start licensing Android instead of giving it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I'm not surprised by that (being that the phone upgrade cycle is much shorter than the computer upgrade cycle). I'd kindof like to see Google start licensing Android instead of giving it away. That would trigger a big patent fight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I'm not surprised by that (being that the phone upgrade cycle is much shorter than the computer upgrade cycle). I'd kindof like to see Google start licensing Android instead of giving it away. That would trigger a big patent fight.... Sarcasm I hope? I had previously argued for a license model for GOOG but I think today that it would be considered too greedy and their partners would balk. As soon as GOOG starts charging some enterprising young startup will just fork the code and continue to develop it for free, threatening Google's control and Android's brand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I have made my point, Google is going the way of MSFT during the PC wars. I think its the better model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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