GOOGL - Google

[rkbabang]

Google to Fund, Develop Wireless Networks in Emerging Markets

 

 

"Google Inc. GOOG +1.23% is deep into a multipronged effort to build and help run wireless networks in emerging markets as part of a plan to connect a billion or more new people to the Internet...

 

the Internet search giant has worked on making special balloons or blimps, known as high-altitude platforms, to transmit signals to an area of hundreds of square miles, though such a network would involve frequencies other than the TV broadcast ones.

 

Google has also considered helping to create a satellite-based network, some of these people said.

 

"There's not going to be one technology that will be the silver bullet," meaning that each market will require a unique solution, said one person familiar with Google's plans."

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Yay, finally breaks 900. Now what to do.....

 

I've sold all but 1 share at varying prices from $700 to my final sale at $906 (sentimental reasons...it's my favorite company). I built the position in 2008 and 2009. Probably had an average cost of $400-450. I don't think the current price can be justified by owner's earnings with reasonably foreseeable growth. I will certainly begin building a position again once it's valuation becomes more reasonable.

 

This is the first time selling something actually hurt. I guess that's what they mean by selling dear.

[Palantir]

IMHO I think you sold a bit early, but then again, my estimate of FV is above 900, and I think it'll hit 1000 sooner than later (famous last words?). I mean this is a global monopoly with an annuity stream everytime you hit search...but then again your cost basis was pretty low so obv it worked out well...

[TwoCitiesCapital]

IMHO I think you sold a bit early, but then again, my estimate of FV is above 900, and I think it'll hit 1000 sooner than later (famous last words?). I mean this is a global monopoly with an annuity stream everytime you hit search...but then again your cost basis was pretty low so obv it worked out well...

 

I agree. Those were my theses when i first purchased it. The strength of its brand was also a big selling point. I have no doubt it will hit 1000 eventually. My problem is that the threat of p/e contraction is too great at these multiples even if the business executes perfectly. I have this theory that the majority of stock market gains and losses come from P/E expansion and contraction. Very much like 90% of bond gains or losses can be explained by parallel shifts in the yield curve. Google could execute perfectly and fall to a P/E of 15 and you'd still lose 15-20% over the next 3 or so years at a minimum. What if the business doesnt execute perfectly? I'll start building a position again if it falls below a 17 multiple on earnings or below a 15 multiple on owners earnings.

[Guest valueInv]

This should do wonders of Motorola's operating losses ;):

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578517383442199350.html

[Guest wellmont]

This should do wonders of Motorola's operating losses ;):

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578517383442199350.html

 

perhaps this X phone is one of the reasons why apple stock continues to have a very low multiple? advanced high quality phone with great software and services at low price isn't exactly good for appl. ;)

[Guest valueInv]

This should do wonders of Motorola's operating losses ;):

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578517383442199350.html

 

perhaps this X phone is one of the reasons why apple stock continues to have a very low multiple? advanced high quality phone with great software and services at low price isn't exactly good for appl. ;)

 

Man, you have a new reason for why Apple has a low multiple everyday ;D

[Guest valueInv]

On that "throw crap at the wall and see what sticks" theory:

 

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-06/google-wallet-is-leaking-money

 

[RichardGibbons]

On that "throw crap at the wall and see what sticks" theory:

 

And not everything sticks?  How about that Android that's totally crushing in worldwide market share?  I guess that's you'll just choose to ignore that example, since it's making the world a really hard place for Apple to grow, and therefore doesn't fit the thesis.

[Guest valueInv]

On that "throw crap at the wall and see what sticks" theory:

 

And not everything sticks?  How about that Android that's totally crushing in worldwide market share?  I guess that's you'll just choose to ignore that example, since it's making the world a really hard place for Apple to grow, and therefore doesn't fit the thesis.

 

Android has been successful for Google like IE has been successful for Microsoft ;)

[RichardGibbons]

Android has been successful for Google like IE has been successful for Microsoft ;)

 

Exactly.  You say this ironically, but it's actually true.  IE was very beneficial for Microsoft -- for years, it disrupted the progress of the Internet in becoming a platform and a real threat to Windows.  Thus, this isn't really the witty refutation that you think it is, but does reveal a lot about your perspectives on what it means to compete in the tech industry.

[Guest wellmont]

On that "throw crap at the wall and see what sticks" theory:

 

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-06/google-wallet-is-leaking-money

 

apple doesn't throw stuff at the wall. but when very important products of theirs like Icloud are hated by their users, that's big. and probably a reason the apple p/e ratio is as low as a water utility's. :)

http://thenextweb.com/apple/2013/03/27/which-icloud-actually-sucks/

[Guest wellmont]

On that "throw crap at the wall and see what sticks" theory:

 

And not everything sticks?  How about that Android that's totally crushing in worldwide market share?  I guess that's you'll just choose to ignore that example, since it's making the world a really hard place for Apple to grow, and therefore doesn't fit the thesis.

 

Android has been successful for Google like IE has been successful for Microsoft ;)

 

not exactly a great comparison. IE has been losing massive share for years. Android has been doing nothing but gobbling up share since it was born. other than that you are correct. :) and virtually every android OS puts a complete and comprehensive suite of google services in front of a mobile user. google is breeding google users for life.

[Palantir]

I don't see any reason why Android has not been anything less than a huge and blinding success. Sergey and Larry couldn't have imagined it would get this  big, if they did, then they're geniuses.

[Guest valueInv]

Android has been successful for Google like IE has been successful for Microsoft ;)

 

Exactly.  You say this ironically, but it's actually true.  IE was very beneficial for Microsoft -- for years, it disrupted the progress of the Internet in becoming a platform and a real threat to Windows.  Thus, this isn't really the witty refutation that you think it is, but does reveal a lot about your perspectives on what it means to compete in the tech industry.

 

Except the web was never a threat to Windows, Microsoft never disrupted the web - ask Google, Facebook, Paypal,etc

 

And almost two decades later, Microsoft still loses tons on money on the web.

[Guest valueInv]

On that "throw crap at the wall and see what sticks" theory:

 

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-06/google-wallet-is-leaking-money

 

apple doesn't throw stuff at the wall. but when very important products of theirs like Icloud are hated by their users, that's big. and probably a reason the apple p/e ratio is as low as a water utility's. :)

http://thenextweb.com/apple/2013/03/27/which-icloud-actually-sucks/

 

Yeah, you keep repeating that. Three months ago it was a "the worst capital allocation in history"

 

I am happy the their P/E ratio is low and both Apple and me get to buy .

[Guest wellmont]

On that "throw crap at the wall and see what sticks" theory:

 

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-06/google-wallet-is-leaking-money

 

apple doesn't throw stuff at the wall. but when very important products of theirs like Icloud are hated by their users, that's big. and probably a reason the apple p/e ratio is as low as a water utility's. :)

http://thenextweb.com/apple/2013/03/27/which-icloud-actually-sucks/

 

Yeah, you keep repeating that. Three months ago it was a "the worst capital allocation in history"

 

I am happy the their P/E ratio is low and both Apple and me get to buy .

 

I own some too.  :(

[Guest valueInv]

On that "throw crap at the wall and see what sticks" theory:

 

And not everything sticks?  How about that Android that's totally crushing in worldwide market share?  I guess that's you'll just choose to ignore that example, since it's making the world a really hard place for Apple to grow, and therefore doesn't fit the thesis.

 

 

Android has been successful for Google like IE has been successful for Microsoft ;)

 

not exactly a great comparison. IE has been losing massive share for years. Android has been doing nothing but gobbling up share since it was born. other than that you are correct. :) and virtually every android OS puts a complete and comprehensive suite of google services in front of a mobile user. google is breeding google users for life.

 

IE dominated a few years ago too. Microsoft also thought they were breeding users.

 

A lot of dot coms bred users while giving away products for free. They were funded by VC money, Google's products are funded by search money.

[Guest valueInv]

On that "throw crap at the wall and see what sticks" theory:

 

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-06/google-wallet-is-leaking-money

 

apple doesn't throw stuff at the wall. but when very important products of theirs like Icloud are hated by their users, that's big. and probably a reason the apple p/e ratio is as low as a water utility's. :)

http://thenextweb.com/apple/2013/03/27/which-icloud-actually-sucks/

 

Yeah, you keep repeating that. Three months ago it was a "the worst capital allocation in history"

 

I am happy the their P/E ratio is low and both Apple and me get to buy .

 

I own some too.  :(

 

Why would you own a losing company.  ::)

 

I mean, own the company that you say has the worst capital allocation is history is not very smart ,Wellmont ;)

[VAL9000]

Except the web was never a threat to Windows, Microsoft never disrupted the web - ask Google, Facebook, Paypal,etc

 

The web was the ultimate threat to Windows and still is.  The web is the primary reason why Apple was able to recover any amount of market share from the Wintel duopoly.  80% of what people do on their PCs today is through a browser window.  That shift in behaviour caused the issue of "no software on the Mac" to become secondary to "poor PC experience".

 

I think Arrington sums it up best:

 

http://techcrunch.com/2013/03/03/there-was-that-whole-internet-thing-too/

 

[Guest wellmont]

 

Why would you own a losing company.  ::)

 

I mean, own the company that you say has the worst capital allocation is history is not very smart ,Wellmont ;)

 

 

I am betting the current price reflects that fact. ;)

[Guest wellmont]

 

IE dominated a few years ago too. Microsoft also thought they were breeding users.

 

A lot of dot coms bred users while giving away products for free. They were funded by VC money, Google's products are funded by search money.

 

this is indeed what happened to msft. but it hasn't happened to goog yet. so it's really not an apt comparison. when it does happen to Android, come back and compare it to IE. ;) btw this does seem to be happening to Itunes. it is being disrupted by Spotify and other streaming services. And it has an ancient UI too. ;)

[Guest valueInv]

Except the web was never a threat to Windows, Microsoft never disrupted the web - ask Google, Facebook, Paypal,etc

 

The web was the ultimate threat to Windows and still is.  The web is the primary reason why Apple was able to recover any amount of market share from the Wintel duopoly.  80% of what people do on their PCs today is through a browser window.  That shift in behaviour caused the issue of "no software on the Mac" to become secondary to "poor PC experience".

 

I think Arrington sums it up best:

 

http://techcrunch.com/2013/03/03/there-was-that-whole-internet-thing-too/

 

On the desktop, Windows still dominates about two decades after the Internet was created - so how big a threat has it been?

 

Mobile has been a bigger threat to Windows than the Internet has. The web hasn't made a dent on Windows yet.

[Guest valueInv]

 

IE dominated a few years ago too. Microsoft also thought they were breeding users.

 

A lot of dot coms bred users while giving away products for free. They were funded by VC money, Google's products are funded by search money.

 

this is indeed what happened to msft. but it hasn't happened to goog yet. so it's really not an apt comparison. when it does happen to Android, come back and compare it to IE. ;) btw this does seem to be happening to Itunes. it is being disrupted by Spotify and other streaming services. And it has an ancient UI too. ;)

 

Dominating the browser market didn't stop Microsoft from losing money and dominating mobile OS hasn't made Google much money either. Both are products given away for free to gain marketshare with the hope that they will make money someday. So the comparison is apt.

 

If you think Apple is being disrupted, sell the stock. You say one thing and do the exact opposite.

[Guest valueInv]

 

Why would you own a losing company.  ::)

 

I mean, own the company that you say has the worst capital allocation is history is not very smart ,Wellmont ;)

 

 

I am betting the current price reflects that fact. ;)

 

Then it is not undervalued, so why would you own it?