GOOGL - Google

[Liberty]

This could go into multiple threads (AMZN, FB, AAPL) but I'll put it here:

 

https://stratechery.com/2019/where-warrens-wrong/

 

Ben Thompson on Elizabeth Warren's plan to break up big tech.

 

If you're a subscriber, there's a follow-up here:

 

https://stratechery.com/2019/where-warrens-wrong-follow-up-amazons-price-parity-provision-the-amazon-marketplace-question/

 

Update: Also, a Steven Sinofsky thread that is related:

 

https://twitter.com/stevesi/status/1105546034996899840

[landstander]

Google Stream Announcement -

 

As a summary, you can play brand new games hosted entirely with Google and without a costly gaming computer or console.

 

Not sure if this moves the needle for Google, but having used Stream to play a graphically intense AAA title on an old laptop through Chrome, I'm excited to see how it evolves (streaming, dev platform, gaming marketplace).

[Liberty]

Wired piece on the Stadia announcement:

 

https://wired.trib.al/AyWYNtB

 

magine watching a game trailer on YouTube, and then being able to play the game directly inside the video. No download required, no custom hardware, within five seconds you're playing the game. That's what Google #Stadia is.

[obtuse_investor]

It is a very nascent idea. Economist did a good write up on this couple months back https://amp.economist.com/business/2019/02/02/netflix-but-for-video-games

 

[meiroy]

 

I don't really get why people are so worried about the latency. The Game/Agent would  "know" the exact latency for each player throughout the game and it is the game that controls the output to each player.  So, if there's a game for 100 it would be so easy to adjust output according to latencies, and it could fluctuate. Like, in a multi-player if in a specific conflict 4 players are involved, simply adjust the output to balance latencies.  The outcome would be far better than what we got now, the only guys who would care are those sitting on 15k worth of specialized gear and broadband (and all those hardware companies).  Of course, all this GPU/AI hardware power can be used for other means as well.

 

[Spekulatius]

 

I don't really get why people are so worried about the latency. The Game/Agent would  "know" the exact latency for each player throughout the game and it is the game that controls the output to each player.  So, if there's a game for 100 it would be so easy to adjust output according to latencies, and it could fluctuate. Like, in a multi-player if in a specific conflict 4 players are involved, simply adjust the output to balance latencies.  The outcome would be far better than what we got now, the only guys who would care are those sitting on 15k worth of specialized gear and broadband (and all those hardware companies).  Of course, all this GPU/AI hardware power can be used for other means as well.

 

If you adjust the game to match the player with a lowest latency, the game becomes unplayable. The problem is not just  latency, it is changes in latency. Players can adjust to let’s say 150msec of latency, but if it goes from 50msec to 300msec a second later than back to 50msec, you are screwed and I don’t think there is a way to adjust for it.

 

Been there. Done it.

[Liberty]

Another EU fine:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/20/eu-vestager-hits-google-with-fine-for.html

[meiroy]

 

I don't really get why people are so worried about the latency. The Game/Agent would  "know" the exact latency for each player throughout the game and it is the game that controls the output to each player.  So, if there's a game for 100 it would be so easy to adjust output according to latencies, and it could fluctuate. Like, in a multi-player if in a specific conflict 4 players are involved, simply adjust the output to balance latencies.  The outcome would be far better than what we got now, the only guys who would care are those sitting on 15k worth of specialized gear and broadband (and all those hardware companies).  Of course, all this GPU/AI hardware power can be used for other means as well.

 

If you adjust the game to match the player with a lowest latency, the game becomes unplayable. The problem is not just  latency, it is changes in latency. Players can adjust to let’s say 150msec of latency, but if it goes from 50msec to 300msec a second later than back to 50msec, you are screwed and I don’t think there is a way to adjust for it.

 

Been there. Done it.

 

Automated latency balancing and all that is an old concept, Google can take it to the next level. It's definitely not something I would worry about as far as monetization goes, most people will be just fine with it.

 

[Liberty]

Automated latency balancing and all that is an old concept, Google can take it to the next level. It's definitely not something I would worry about as far as monetization goes, most people will be just fine with it.

 

Google will put the hardware running this on a distributed CDN that will probably be embedded at the ISPs or very close. That traffic won't be routed all over the internet, it'll be pretty close to the player (both geographically and in number of hops), I'd expect.

[Liberty]

https://www.geekwire.com/2019/interview-google-cloud-ceo-thomas-kurian-open-source-aws-working-military/

 

Short interview with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian

[Liberty]

Monetizing maps:

 

https://adage.com/article/digital/google-flips-switch-its-next-big-money-maker-maps/2163976

[rkbabang]

Monetizing maps:

https://adage.com/article/digital/google-flips-switch-its-next-big-money-maker-maps/2163976

 

I just deleted the google maps app from my iPhone.  I need to find out if Waze is saving all of my location data as well.  I might be using Apple maps exclusively soon.

 

Read this entire article.  It is scary.  Notice the line  "Investigators who spoke with The New York Times said they had not sent geofence warrants to companies other than Google, and Apple said it did not have the ability to perform those searches."

 

Tracking Phones, Google Is a Dragnet for the Police

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/13/us/google-location-tracking-police.html

 

 

"Mr. Molina, 24, said he was shocked when the police told him they suspected him of murder, and he was surprised at their ability to arrest him based largely on data.

 

“I just kept thinking, You’re innocent, so you’re going to get out,” he said, but he added that he worried that it could take months or years to be exonerated. “I was scared,” he said."

[Liberty]

https://medium.com/waymo/making-waymos-in-motor-city-76c2af165165

[obtuse_investor]

https://medium.com/waymo/making-waymos-in-motor-city-76c2af165165

 

Sounds like Waymo is going to be a capital intensive vertically integrated business? From auto parts to actual car manufacturing to über like ride sharing?

[Sharad]

Monetizing maps:

https://adage.com/article/digital/google-flips-switch-its-next-big-money-maker-maps/2163976

 

I just deleted the google maps app from my iPhone.  I need to find out if Waze is saving all of my location data as well.  I might be using Apple maps exclusively soon.

 

Read this entire article.  It is scary.  Notice the line  "Investigators who spoke with The New York Times said they had not sent geofence warrants to companies other than Google, and Apple said it did not have the ability to perform those searches."

 

Tracking Phones, Google Is a Dragnet for the Police

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/13/us/google-location-tracking-police.html

 

 

"Mr. Molina, 24, said he was shocked when the police told him they suspected him of murder, and he was surprised at their ability to arrest him based largely on data.

 

“I just kept thinking, You’re innocent, so you’re going to get out,” he said, but he added that he worried that it could take months or years to be exonerated. “I was scared,” he said."

 

 

Given Google owns Waze, wouldn't the same situation apply?

[Spekulatius]

https://medium.com/waymo/making-waymos-in-motor-city-76c2af165165

 

Sounds like Waymo is going to be a capital intensive vertically integrated business? From auto parts to actual car manufacturing to über like ride sharing?

 

The hardware at this point is proprietary, so they need to do it themselves to start with. I am pretty sure, they will buy a shell from a car company (body, drivetrain, interior), then stuff their electronic system in it, wire harness, sensors and then test it. I am fairly certain, they won’t build a complete car.

 

Once volume is there and components are more standardized so they can outsourced efficiently, they will probably outsource most of it, except maybe a few proprietary components.

[obtuse_investor]

I would sure hope so. I would love to see them own the patent and license it out to parts manufacturers. Maybe the final assembly with their software would be the “secret sauce” for a while, until the assembly itself becomes commoditized.

[SHDL]

IIRC the story was that Waymo initially tried to partner with an existing auto manufacturer but wasn’t able to do so because they all wanted access to Waymo’s technology in return, to which Waymo said no.  Given that history it’s hard to see how things go from here.

[rkbabang]

Monetizing maps:

https://adage.com/article/digital/google-flips-switch-its-next-big-money-maker-maps/2163976

 

I just deleted the google maps app from my iPhone.  I need to find out if Waze is saving all of my location data as well.  I might be using Apple maps exclusively soon.

 

Read this entire article.  It is scary.  Notice the line  "Investigators who spoke with The New York Times said they had not sent geofence warrants to companies other than Google, and Apple said it did not have the ability to perform those searches."

 

Tracking Phones, Google Is a Dragnet for the Police

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/13/us/google-location-tracking-police.html

 

 

"Mr. Molina, 24, said he was shocked when the police told him they suspected him of murder, and he was surprised at their ability to arrest him based largely on data.

 

“I just kept thinking, You’re innocent, so you’re going to get out,” he said, but he added that he worried that it could take months or years to be exonerated. “I was scared,” he said."

 

 

Given Google owns Waze, wouldn't the same situation apply?

 

It could, or it might not.  Waze had been kept entirely separate from google maps and run independently, they still use different map databases and everything.  At least that was the case years ago when I was reading about it.  That may have changed.

 

 

[Liberty]

Q1:

 

https://abc.xyz/investor/static/pdf/2019Q1_alphabet_earnings_release.pdf?cache=8ac2b86

[CorpRaider]

Come to papa. 

 

BTW Google assistant is soooo much better than siri and alexa.  The assistant has literally put my son to sleep a few times.  Also taught us a version of twinkle, twinkle little star where we worked in some energy and mass lyrics. 

 

Siri is all like derp....I didn't understand that....derp I sound like a robot from 1994.

 

[Saluki]

This is my 2nd biggest position (about 10%), I just added a little more today. At a trailing PE of 27, no debt and a 23% yoy earnings growth that disappointed "the street", if Mr Market want's to cough up some shares at a discount to me, I'll take it. 

[Liberty]

This is my 2nd biggest position (about 10%), I just added a little more today. At a trailing PE of 27, no debt and a 23% yoy earnings growth that disappointed "the street", if Mr Market want's to cough up some shares at a discount to me, I'll take it.

 

What's the economic P/E, though?

 

If you Bill Nygren's method from a past interview and update it, you get this:

 

[Gregmal]

Added as well, just as I did after last quarter's "miss" around $1100... I continue to like this, and continue to think its great(for an investor looking to build long term wealth here) that the market seems to have such low expectations for everything else, including stuff like FB and AAPL, yet wants to be so petty and nitpick with GOOG... Good, I'm getting to buy one of the best companies in the world, wildly profitable, growing like a weed, and still attracting the smartest people in the world...for a huge discount to everything else.

[Spekulatius]

Added as well, just as I did after last quarter's "miss" around $1100... I continue to like this, and continue to think its great(for an investor looking to build long term wealth here) that the market seems to have such low expectations for everything else, including stuff like FB and AAPL, yet wants to be so petty and nitpick with GOOG... Good, I'm getting to buy one of the best companies in the world, wildly profitable, growing like a weed, and still attracting the smartest people in the world...for a huge discount to everything else.

 

GOOG looks quite cheap compared to the company currently IPO’ing for sure. What I think is happening is that the market is gravitating towards stories and story stocks rather than reward just good numbers. Each of these IPO’s has a story to tell, and investors are eating it even though for some of them the operating numbers look quite ugly. Even a stalwart like Disney could add $20 to its stock more or less simply buy telling a story how they are going to compete against the Netflixes of the world and the market is buying it, despite an hit to earnings.

 

Google has plenty of interesting things going on, but there is nobody who narrates a story. So they are just putting up nice numbers, but nobody gets exited and a miss in the quarterly earnings games will result in a 10% loss of market cap, while their competitors are losing money even after adjusting the heck out of their financial statements.

 

Somebody should tell Warren that Geico isn’t just an insurance company, but a disruptor and a subscription service & cloud service that should sell for 10x revenues based the future value of their customers, but I guess he doesn’t care.

 

 

FWIW, I am fine with how GOOG goes about there business. I haven’t added yet (I did my buys ~$1000/ share last year) and think the stock may be in the penalty box a bit. I would love to add is ~$1100/ share, if it comes to that.