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GPT - Gramercy Property Trust


PlanMaestro

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Results out:

 

http://ir.gptreit.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=783039

 

No surprises.  Management is executing just as they said they would.  GPT put over $50m to work in the quarter (bought $111m of property), $50m left to go.  Decent progess on cost-cutting.  I think the market was looking forward to hearing about having a credit facility in place, or a timetable for preferred dividends.  No word on either, so some minor disappointment being reflected in trading today.

 

Yes, I am disappointed that no news on the credit line too. I think they will not pay preferred divy until they get it. Anyway, progress on the business side looks good, like the sale of almost half of the BOA properties for $20mm.

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Seems like its been trending down since earnings report a little, but all the REITS I track got whacked over the last couple of days with the rise in rates; as you would expect.  My only comment is that if they couldn't get the line of credit done during the credit environment over the last year, that's potentially concerning.  I listened to the conference call and they said its no big deal they can just do financing on a deal by deal basis. 

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I have a conference call with management on Tuesday.  Any salient questions that anyone thinks are particularly worth answering?  I intend to publish my next article on this company next Wednesday, which I will discuss on Bloomberg TV next Friday.  I would be interested in any points that you think are worth mentioning. 

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I have a conference call with management on Tuesday.  Any salient questions that anyone thinks are particularly worth answering?  I intend to publish my next article on this company next Wednesday, which I will discuss on Bloomberg TV next Friday.  I would be interested in any points that you think are worth mentioning.

 

Chris, I'd appreciate if you could ask about the line of credit (why is it delayed and what's the time line) and share back their answers/comments. Thanks and look forward to reading your next SA article.

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I have a conference call with management on Tuesday.  Any salient questions that anyone thinks are particularly worth answering?  I intend to publish my next article on this company next Wednesday, which I will discuss on Bloomberg TV next Friday.  I would be interested in any points that you think are worth mentioning.

 

Chris, I'd appreciate if you could ask about the line of credit (why is it delayed and what's the time line) and share back their answers/comments. Thanks and look forward to reading your next SA article.

 

Will do.  -C

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I have a conference call with management on Tuesday.  Any salient questions that anyone thinks are particularly worth answering?  I intend to publish my next article on this company next Wednesday, which I will discuss on Bloomberg TV next Friday.  I would be interested in any points that you think are worth mentioning.

 

Thanks for asking! We've talked about this via email before - I'd be interested to know whether management is considering any alternatives to unlock some of the CDO option value for shareholders - like distributing a CVR or some similar security.  That CDO equity is not part of their business plan going forward, and it would be a nice consideration for shareholders who want to realize some (any?) value for that sooner rather than later.

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I have a conference call with management on Tuesday.  Any salient questions that anyone thinks are particularly worth answering?  I intend to publish my next article on this company next Wednesday, which I will discuss on Bloomberg TV next Friday.  I would be interested in any points that you think are worth mentioning.

 

Thanks for asking! We've talked about this via email before - I'd be interested to know whether management is considering any alternatives to unlock some of the CDO option value for shareholders - like distributing a CVR or some similar security.  That CDO equity is not part of their business plan going forward, and it would be a nice consideration for shareholders who want to realize some (any?) value for that sooner rather than later.

 

I will ask.  -C

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Hi Chris, please ignore if this is an obtuse question (I'm relatively new to the name, not that I never ask "dumb questions" about names with which I am familiar, hah!), but I've been curious about the CEO's departure from WPC over stated "differences in strategic vision" for WPC and how that relates to his vision for GPT, longer term.  So we shouldn't assume/hope GPT will grow to look like WPC, if he is successful in executing his vision?  What's the difference?  A focus on the underlying quality of real estate versus the simple credit analysis of the lessee and the terms of the lease in place?

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Hi Chris, please ignore if this is an obtuse question (I'm relatively new to the name, not that I never ask "dumb questions" about names with which I am familiar, hah!), but I've been curious about the CEO's departure from WPC over stated "differences in strategic vision" for WPC and how that relates to his vision for GPT, longer term.  So we shouldn't assume/hope GPT will grow to look like WPC, if he is successful in executing his vision?  What's the difference?  A focus on the underlying quality of real estate versus the simple credit analysis of the lessee and the terms of the lease in place?

 

Great question; I'll compile and organize all of these before the conversation. 

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I will ask.  -C

 

Thanks!  Appreciate you taking questions from the board.

 

Hi Chris, please ignore if this is an obtuse question (I'm relatively new to the name, not that I never ask "dumb questions" about names with which I am familiar, hah!), but I've been curious about the CEO's departure from WPC over stated "differences in strategic vision" for WPC and how that relates to his vision for GPT, longer term.  So we shouldn't assume/hope GPT will grow to look like WPC, if he is successful in executing his vision?  What's the difference?  A focus on the underlying quality of real estate versus the simple credit analysis of the lessee and the terms of the lease in place?

 

+1

Good question, not obtuse.

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....did Chris Demuth put that update out this week?....

 

It will be posted at 2 PM on Seeking Alpha around the same time that I appear on Bloomberg to discuss that and a few other ideas.  Here is what is on my mind.  Please reply with any questions or suggestions. 

 

Ideas

 

2013

 

2013 began with a market that would pay anything for yield and would pay next to nothing for companies without yield.  We wanted to capture the difference.  Here is how we went about it.

 

Short

 

First, due to temporary and artificial demand, bonds were terribly expensive.  Our favorite short idea for the year was a security called the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares, ticker TMF.  Rarely do I find a security with more to object to right there in the name:  it is bullish on the long bond, leveraged, and traded daily in a manner that locks in buying high and selling low.  Due to a structural flaw called the constant leverage trap, it essentially buys high and sells low in a frantic death spiral of trades that degrade its value over time.  So, we took the other side of an expensive, leveraged, flawed security.

 

Long

 

Secondly, we sought to buy a security that lacked a yield but had all of the characteristics that would allow it to offer a steady and growing yield by the end of the year.  We wanted something that was well managed.  We wanted something that was at a size that it could take advantage of business opportunities that its competitors would miss.  We wanted something ignored by the markets in large part because of a temporary lack of a dividend.  We wanted something that had the steady and growing cash flow with which to support a steady and growing dividend.  We found it.  The name was Gramercy, which currently trades under ticker GPT.  By the end of the year, we expect Gramercy to initiate a significant dividend.  Management is on track with a business plan that results in a per-share value of over $7 per share.  As an alternative to the current business plan which we support, they could liquidate the current book of business or sell to a competitor for a price of around $6 per share if anything goes wrong with the current business plan.  Shareholders will insist on one or the other – a dividend or a sale – this year. 

 

And now for a new idea

 

Several years ago, we were shareholders of a company called Genzyme which was purchased at a significant premium by the large French pharma company Sanofi.  The purchase price included a right, which is still publicly traded under the ticker GCVRZ.  The right is to payments based on a potential FDA approval and subsequent sales of a drug used to fight Multiple Sclerosis.  The drug’s name is Lemtrada – it is a safe, effective drug that will be widely adopted.  Our expectation is that the right holders will receive a payout equal to approximately 50% of the market price by the end of the year based on the potential FDA approval.  But here is where it gets interesting.  The remaining payments are based on sales of the drug once it is approved.  Once the likelihood of these sales are re-rated, we expect the right to trade at or above $2 and that is after a $1 payment for a total value of over a 50% upside in 2013. 

 

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my expectation based on the language in the filing related to the credit facility is that the preferred will be trued up using the credit line....spending the approx 40m to do so will add approx a million to interest expense and i understand why they'd want to delay this as long as they're able to do so....i've guessed wrong so many times as to when/how they'd handle the preferreds but it won't stop me from trying again ;-)....i'd say on or before q3 gets filed....also, the pace of deals (completed at least) has slowed this quarter, in fact the bank branch deal announced last week was a property they used to own, perhaps i was getting spoiled by the frenetic pace of the last year but it's a concern....everyones assumptions always include the potential when all cash is deployed, what happens if there simply aren't enough deals in their wheelhouse over the next 12-18 months?

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