Guest Hester Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 For anybody wondering E*Trade has about plenty of IRE shares to short, with no HTB fee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 "or the possibility that shares once borrowed may be withdrawn" under which scenario would this happen and how likely is this to happen? regards rijk Depends on the brokerage relationship and how much in demand the shares are. In other words: I don't know. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 This is now looking like a short (buying puts may be an even better strategy) as Bank of Ireland have announced that there will be massive dilution. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/bankofireland-idUSLDE7520NR20110603 I believe that the ADR share price is grossly inflated given the coming dilution and my target price would be $0.40, assuming the Irish economy returns to some sort of growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 one broker indicated that withdrawal of short shares is handled on a random basis, somehow i don't believe this.... could it be that the pool of ADR shares is relatively small and that a demand supply imbalance vs BKIR is responsible for the spread? can't believe that the same company is worth nearly double in the US vs Europe, why would an informed US ADR investor not sell his ADR shares and buy BKIR or BIR shares right now? regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschoolsting Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 One stock loan desk told me that there is a currently a ban on shorting Irish financials. Has anyone else gotten this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 You can short Irish financials on the NYSE, but not on the Irish exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 It has taken another hit today, the differential between the two listings is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 both bank of ireland investor relations and bny mellon indicated that the spread might have something to do with the maximum capacity of the adr program haven't figured out yet how many adr shares are trading i would imagine that the limit to the number of adr shares is not something that materialized recently, so how would this explain the increased spread? regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 per BNY Mellon, local shares can not be converted to ADRs because the ADR program is at it's limit, apparently per SEC regulations, could somebody explain how these SEC regulation regarding maximum quantity of ADRs works? the way to re-establish convertibility would be for the Bank of Ireland to increase the ADR program doesn't this indicate that this is not a risk free opportunity, but instead a bet on Bank of Ireland management to increase the ADR program? if this is the case, what are the incentives/dynamics for Bank of Ireland's management to increase the ADR program? regards, rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 continued decline in IRE/BKIR share prices reduces the (absolute) spread..... regards rijk Shareholder Anger Erupts At Bank Of Ireland Meeting Last update: 6/15/2011 7:58:30 AM DUBLIN (Dow Jones)--Bank of Ireland Chief Executive Richie Boucher had eggs pelted at him at a shareholders' meeting Wednesday, as one of Ireland's last surviving major lenders seeks to raise billions of euros more in capital in the coming weeks. The bank, which is already 36% owned by the Irish government after receiving EUR3.5 billion in bailout aid, needs EUR5.2 billion more in capital and new buffer reserves, mainly to make good lending excesses during the boom years. The eggs, which were hurled by a shareholder later identified as Gary Keogh from the front of the meeting, narrowly missed Boucher who was seated on a podium in a hall at University College Dublin. Keogh was led away from the hall without resistance. Keogh, a pensioner, later told journalists that he had lost money in the shares he owned in both Bank of Ireland and its main rival Allied Irish Banks PLC (AIB), which need billions of euros in government aid and European Central Bank loans to keep their doors open. Keogh gained notoriety in 2009 when he threw an egg that hit then Allied Irish Banks chairman Dermot Gleeson at a shareholder meeting. Another shareholder Wednesday accused the Bank of Ireland board of having robbed "the elderly" by its rights issue last year. Bank of Ireland Governor, the bank's chairman, Pat Molloy, told shareholders the bank had to raise more capital because of the results of Irish central bank stress tests in March. A shareholder who identified herself as a bank staff member said the board had no idea about the public's anger about the bank paying bonuses to senior staff. The bank is fighting to keep its government shareholding below the 75% level at which stock-market rules dictate its shares will be delisted from the senior markets of the Irish and London stock exchanges. Bank of Ireland will likely raise about EUR2 billion by buying back EUR2.6 billion of its junior debt, analysts say. Last week, the bank also published more plans to offer bond holders to swap debt for shares in the range of 11.30 cents to 11.76 cents a share on an ex-rights basis. A rights issue will be fully underwritten by the Irish government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 shouldn't this put more pressure on IRE & BKIR stock prices and reduce the spread? regards rijk http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/11/bankofireland-credit-idUSL6E7IB0X20110711 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Looks like ADR 5 yr average premium is 52% and 10 yr 56% Chart attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 mr b, the graph looks a bit strange, could have some errors.... the spread has narrowed nicely, probably more as a result of the trouble that BOI is in than arbitrage, think the bottom is still ahead.... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I pulled the data from Reuters and it's the USD spread with closing prices (not 100% trade overlap). Anyway, I attached the spreadsheet, so you can verify the underlying data. Pls let me know if you find any inaccuracies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 mr b, the graph looks a bit strange, could have some errors.... the spread has narrowed nicely, probably more as a result of the trouble that BOI is in than arbitrage, think the bottom is still ahead.... regards rijk Or maybe not. The spread seems to have been locked at a very high 50%+ for most of the 5 years of the graph. We closed out our position recently with a modest gain because of the increasing cost to borrow. Thank you very much, Ballinvarosig, for posting. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Unfair question, but why do you think this happens. Ryanair's long term average is 18%. Why 50% and why 18%? What could possibly drive such a wide spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Unfair question, but why do you think this happens. Ryanair's long term average is 18%. Why 50% and why 18%? What could possibly drive such a wide spread? Could the low rate of US taxation for qualifying dividends of US traded securities be involved here? Has the US had a tax treaty with Ireland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 this is weird, looks like yahoo finance and bloomberg show different historical prices for example dec 30 2009: yahoo: €1.35 @ 1.43 = $1.94 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=BKIR.L&a=11&b=30&c=2009&d=11&e=30&f=2009&g=d bloomberg: €0.85 @ 1.43 = $1.22 (see attached screenshot) i tend to have more faith in bloomberg which would support the data you used.... any clues as to why the data would be different? regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 It is due to the capital raising (new shares) in May 2010 for which Yahoo did not adjust. You will see the step change on 5/20 from the Yahoo data below. Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close 5/25/2010 70 70 63.75 66.25 19895600 66.25 5/24/2010 79 80 71.5 72 15523700 72 5/21/2010 78 80.25 70.5 74.95 31999800 74.95 5/20/2010 88 88 74.5 77 56547900 77 5/19/2010 137 143 132.5 137 11573100 137 5/18/2010 147 149.5 139.25 142 7444500 142 5/17/2010 151 151.75 142.75 146 5606000 146 5/14/2010 158 163 152.5 155 6076400 155 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 mr b, thanks for the details, i also noticed that yahoo & bloomberg are in sink after may 19 2010 so does it makes sense that, on average, IRE shares traded at a 50-60% premium to BKIR shares for many years, that this premium dropped to zero at the time the capital raise took place in May 2010 and subsequently increased to 50-60% again....? my understanding was that the recent widening of the spread is a direct consequence of the ADR program reaching a maximum limit (SEC regulated) towards the end of 2010, as a consequence of which conversion of BKIR shares to IRE shares was halted.....? regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 mr b, thanks for the details, i also noticed that yahoo & bloomberg are in sink after may 19 2010 so does it makes sense that, on average, IRE shares traded at a 50-60% premium to BKIR shares for many years, that this premium dropped to zero at the time the capital raise took place in May 2010 and subsequently increased to 50-60% again....? my understanding was that the recent widening of the spread is a direct consequence of the ADR program reaching a maximum limit (SEC regulated) towards the end of 2010, as a consequence of which conversion of BKIR shares to IRE shares was halted.....? regards rijk The trade rather blew up Friday with IRE:US up 43%. Things like this can happen when the cost to borrow goes up a lot. Then, the shorts may suddenly stampede for the exits as if there were a fire in a theatre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 the spread is back to where it was by the end of may looks like this was a relief reaction to the European stress test results at noon in Friday, we all know how this stress test works, so it remains to be seen if the new trend holds.... http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=IRE+Interactive#chart1:symbol=ire;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined strange thing is that BKIR didn't react to this news at all http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BKIR.L+Interactive#symbol=BKIR.L;range=1d regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 yes, but what do you think caused the long term spread in the first place? I don't know the answer, but thought you might have some theories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 mr b, are you really sure that there is/was a long term spread of approx 50%? that's what i am struggling to understand in the graph.... when there were no restrictions to convert BKIR to IRE, prior to dec 2010, why would there be such a large spread, any spread would immediately be arbed away, no???? today's news, no movement in BKIR, let's see what happens to IRE later today..... http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/16/banks-liquidity-idUSL6E7IG00U20110716?feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews&rpc=43 regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 That is what the data shows. Also, with RYA/RYAAY there is a long term average spread of 18%, so this type of thing happens. With RYAAY, being an airline there is also restrictions in place which limits the number of ADRs that can be registered. For me it is still not enough to explain the large spread, but if you look at the data, there it is. Common sense says it should be arbed away, but those spreads existed for many years and in some cases even a decade or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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