rijk Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 mr b, going to try and find out more details, just can't believe a 50% spread long term.... IRE down 15% in pre-market... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 mr b, bny mellon is telling me that there hasn't been a large premium on the ADR shares historically, i.e. using bloomberg info (which is adjusted for the rights issue in may 2010) isn't the correct way to look at the spread between IRE & BKIR looks like the data i posted on june 1 is correct after all..... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Just did a spot check 31 Dec 2007 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BKIR:ID EUR6.12 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=IRE:US USD45.23 http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/ 0.6896 6.12*4/0.6896=35.50=27% spread. However, the reuters data in my spreadsheet shows the ADR on that date as 60.44 en the EUR price as 6.43 Might be something to do with the ADR ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 should have said reuters info instead of bloomberg, the big gap down you see in your graph is a consequence of reuters adjusting historical information, which gives us incorrect information when looking at the historic spread between BKIR & IRE prior to May 19, 2010...... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 the spread has widened again to more than $1 or 60%, markets in Europe are closed right now so BKIR might catch up tomorrow.. looks like % wise, the spread is at an all time historic record level...... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Definitively looks interesting. Note: Sometimes it makes a difference whether you are looking at "live" prices, meaning when both are trading; consider the time difference between the markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 we have someone familiar on board..... regards rijk http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/26/idUSL6E7IQ09120110726?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector&rpc=43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
king888 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 http://www.adrbnymellon.com/files/AD33335.pdf From the 3rd paragraph. "Because the right will not be registered Under US act of 1933,we are not permitted to pass the right on the holder of DR.Therefore,BNY mellon will attemp to sell the right in local market.The proceed from The sales of right will be distributed to DR holders" Does this cause the premium for the IRE? Same rule applied to Ryan Air, the premium exists for the company that usually raising new capital.Because ADR holder can get the proceed from selling the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 unlikely, the value of the rights seems to be €0.01 cent per share (BKIR) regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 http://seekingalpha.com/article/282814-bank-of-ireland-adrs-ridiculously-overpriced-vs-london-listed-shares?source=email_portfolio Also see the comments that follow the article.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
king888 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 There is a weird discussion in yahoo mb that the ratio for ADR is about 15:1 right now. But I just called IR unit today and they confirmed that it is still 4:1 .And for the premium of ADR ,they think it comes from limited amount of ADR in US market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Has anyone actually worked out the fundamentals of IRE. I spent alot of time on this, even read much of the most recent 20k. The spreadsheets I worked up are on my other computer. I will post later. Given the extreme share dilution the normalized price of this company, assumming a mid range from revenues in the earleir 2000s, is around 20 pence. This is a long term recovery play, years out - The major shareholders will need to press the board to retire shares in the billions to raise this stock. So, what you are likely to see is a share price that wallows for at least 3 years. I cannot explain the ADR discrepancy any better than anyone else. Suffice to say it would be logistically expensive and difficult for me to run from Canada. I expect it should become more efficient as more figure it out. As suggested on the original IRE thread it is probably just as lucrative to short the ADR as it slowly compresses to whatever IRE + conversion fee equals (70 US cents?). I have a tough enough time holding rising Leaps without selling early - My odds of profiting from this exercise in any meaningful way are nil. The real winners in this will be BNY Mellon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 BOI's normalized earnings power is at least €1 billion BOI's current P/BV = 3/11=0.27 BOI's normalized P/E = 3/1=3 they are the only independent bank left in ireland ireland has received a reduction in interest and extension of repayment terms on it's ecb bail out package several recent articles regarding the european debt crisis mention that ireland might survive fairfax invested $400 million in common stock this is by no means a risk free investment but i will take my chances..... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Rijk, 1. Billion E - I came up with 300 million in 3 years providing the Irish economy normalizes that rapidy. THe 1 billion was made when they were selling all the bad construction loans. 300m/30000 m shares is 0.01/ share Pe of 10 gets me a share price of 10 pence. Ihave no question they will remain solvent and become profitable one day but it is a long way off. Irish property loans are 40percent under where the lending took place and the Irish are vacating at the moment for better opportunities elsewhere. Hundreds have arrived in Toronto to do construction work. FFH et al will be first inline to make good money on future preferred and convertible issues, with awesome returns for FFH built in. I won't touch it right now but I will concede a margin of safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 agree this is going to take time but the odds are looking favorable, i will look again in a few years time...... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 The short selling ban on Bank of Ireland in the Irish market has been lifted, the spread between the ADR and ISEQ listed shares is 4%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Uccmal. All you need is a domestic resident/registered entity ... Typically foreign investor X buys property in country Y. Investor X then registers a domestic shell, sells a domestic renewable lease to domestic citizen Z, makes the domestic lease the domestic shells asset, & contracts a domestic property manager to manage the lease. The domestic shell is then usually allowed to invest seed money in domestic equities to fund an endowment that will eventually retire the mortgage. Works pretty much anywhere, & works best when the property(s) are very high end. We use a downscale version of the mechanism to fund our UK properties ;) SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 This thing has been boosting up everyday on heavy volume. Anyone know what the catalyst is? I too thought this thing would be in the doldrums for a while. One word, well, four really. LTRO (Long Term Repo Operation). The ECB is effectively adopting the strategy that the Fed used for the S&L crisis of the 80's. Banks are borrowing money from the ECB at 1% and using it to buy sovereign debt (in Ireland at least) that's yielding 7-8% and pocketing the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This thing has been boosting up everyday on heavy volume. Anyone know what the catalyst is? I too thought this thing would be in the doldrums for a while. One word, well, four really. LTRO (Long Term Repo Operation). The ECB is effectively adopting the strategy that the Fed used for the S&L crisis of the 80's. Banks are borrowing money from the ECB at 1% and using it to buy sovereign debt (in Ireland at least) that's yielding 7-8% and pocketing the difference. Well, IRE also has substantial capital ratios now. Perhaps it's a case of the stink simply wearing off the name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 This thing has been boosting up everyday on heavy volume. Anyone know what the catalyst is? I too thought this thing would be in the doldrums for a while. One word, well, four really. LTRO (Long Term Repo Operation). The ECB is effectively adopting the strategy that the Fed used for the S&L crisis of the 80's. Banks are borrowing money from the ECB at 1% and using it to buy sovereign debt (in Ireland at least) that's yielding 7-8% and pocketing the difference. Well, IRE also has substantial capital ratios now. Perhaps it's a case of the stink simply wearing off the name. The recapitalization took place last year. The huge spike we've seen in BOI (and the other European banks) is solely down to LTRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The short selling ban on Bank of Ireland in the Irish market has been lifted, the spread between the ADR and ISEQ listed shares is 4%. it was the decrease in ire shares that reduced the spread, wasn't it? european short selling restrictions would have only impacted bkir, isn't it? regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This thing has been boosting up everyday on heavy volume. Anyone know what the catalyst is? I too thought this thing would be in the doldrums for a while. One word, well, four really. LTRO (Long Term Repo Operation). The ECB is effectively adopting the strategy that the Fed used for the S&L crisis of the 80's. Banks are borrowing money from the ECB at 1% and using it to buy sovereign debt (in Ireland at least) that's yielding 7-8% and pocketing the difference. Yup! This is the mystery bank mentioned on another post that we've been backing up the truck to and throwing the moneybags in. They put high yielding sovereign debt to the ECB as collateral and then use that collateral to borrow from the ECB at ultra low interest. Not only do they make money on the huge spread, but as a consequence of the ECB operation plus the Irish government's determination to act responsibly, Sovereign Debt of Ireland, of which they own a bundle, has been the best performing EURO Sovereign Debt of the last six months. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This is weird. As I write, the arbitrage spread has reversed from the situation last year. Currently, the ADR IRE is selling for five or six percent less than the adjusted price of the BKIR close today in London. ( the price there went up 15% today ) OK at the close it's within a percent of the London traded equivalent price. Now rational. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Nice job :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 It looks like the spread is getting even wider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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