jch548 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Just a quick word on IMOS. I have followed this stock off and on over the years. I owned some shares at the start of the year and have accumulated more making IMOS one of my largest holdings. A recent Barrons article named IMOS the most undervalued stock in a fund's portfoloio. IMOS is a chip assemby and testing company headquartered in Taiwan and focused on the asian market. Prior to 2010 the testing and assembly market suffered two down years. In 2006 IMOS made a significant $469mm investment in PP&E all financed with debt. Ultimately two of the companies largest customers filed bankruptcy and getting paid was difficult. Due to the large capital investment made in 2006 and low capacity utilization profits have been slim yet cash flow has been available. In recent years IMOS has been paying down debt. Net debt should be around $150mm. Because of some debt conversions there should be around 30mm shares outstanding. The company is forcasting $110mm in FCF for 2011. So as of today you are getting around a 40% cash yield on the common. The catalyst to convert this FCF to earnings is the fact that the 2006 capital outlays will be fully depreciated by the end of 2011. The cap-ex over the four years subsequent to 2006 is $526mm so the annual depreciation charges of $210mm should drop off significantly. With only 30mm shares and a NOL earnings could be substantial. EBITDA is forcasted at around $250mm. EV is $420mm+- so the ebitda multiple is very low. Compare IMOS to SPIL and AMKR to see what sort of valuation might be applicable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I have followed it and own some. The only problem with imos is the large debt load. Otherwise, it looks like a fine stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch548 Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Debt isn't that high when you factor in cash. Net debt at the end of 2010 was $228mm. Since then they have sold an interest in a subsidiary for $40mm and have generated FCF from operations. Net debt could be around $100mm at the end of 2011. It is possible they could earn $3 to $4 a share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 I have owned IMOS for last 1 year and I am not selling yet. The company could show EPS of $4 in 2-3 years.It is amazing turnaround for a company which could have been bankrupt in 2008. What I like is that they have made investment in LCD's which is high margin business for them.The sales are growing in the high margin segment. The margins are improving because of LCD segment. The company has very high operating leverage.A small increase in sales translates into much higher increase in margin. I think we are in take off stage.Enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Craig Hellum initiated coverage on IMOS with $19 target. IMOS has been experiencing a nice run recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 No news (on google finance) and up 33% in two days. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think it is the buyback and price target of 19 by Craig Hallum. Remember IMOS did not have any analyst covering it and Craig Hallum is the first to cover IMOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch548 Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm still here. The company plans to list their shares in Taiwan near the end of the year. The taiwan market seems to put decent valuations on the testing and packaging companies. Though the stock is up a great deal I suspect there is plenty of room to run given the valuations of competitors and the company's strengthening business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Net debt is down to $56m now.They should be debt free in next 2 qtrs. The company has given guidance of GM of 10-15% for Q2'12 ans revenue growth of 7-12%.This should result in EPS for >$1 for 2012 and probably >$2 for 2013. With FCF of $110m for 2012, company was pushed to announce plans for returning money to shareholders in the conf call.SK seemed to be positive and said he will take the message to the board.Analysts pushed him for dividend. I am not too worried in the short term.If they stay disciplined with Capex, cash will start piling in the balance sheet. It is trading at 3 times FCF still very cheap. JCH - Are you still holding your position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Symbol is now IMOS and not IMOSD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch548 Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 Still my largest position in the market. I have sold some stocks recently but will keep IMOS. The Yahoo board provides the best information. To get up to speed on IMOS I would read some of the posts over the past two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abcd Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Bullish arguments regarding the future starting this quarter's results in this article. http://seekingalpha.com/article/723561-chipmos-expect-multiple-near-term-catalysts-to-drive-shares-higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Mr. market is presenting good opportunity now to buy IMOS at 2X FCF. Near term catalysts could be Initiation of dividend Change of buyback target price Increased buyback 2Q results announcement showing positive EPS for the first time since 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abcd Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 + the potential wildcard of the exchange rate working in its favor this quarter (vs working against, the previous quarter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Been looking a bit a IMOS and imo the big quick question: What do you think normalized capex is? Should we expect that the company needs to increase capex significantly in the coming years to replace the 2006 equipment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 The company has stated that capex will be $100m/year for many years.They haev stated that they will adhere to Capex discipline. I think they have learnt their lessons from 2006. I do not think they have to replace the 2006 equipment.The product mix has already shifted drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Any change you know where/when the company communicated this? Conference call/Annual report/press release? If future capex is indeed in the 100m/year range I would be able to eliminate one of my concerns. But to directly move to the next one: if you would assume that the company would be able to produce ~100M/year in FCF a fair multiple would value the company significantly above book value, and that would imply that the company has a significant competitive advantage. But at first glance the business of the company doesn't look that unique to me, they are not doing anything that can't be replicated right? They are not making toasters, but seems to me that they are also not doing anything really propriatery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Company has given the estimate for 2012.I was told that in the conf call they talked about capex for 2013 and after. I sent a E mail to IMOS IR and this is the response I got. The company has talked about a capex budget of US$85-90M for FY12. Management has not talked about FY13 or FY14. While not from the company, the analyst from Craig-Hallum published a model with Capex of 96.9M in FY13 and 101.9M in FY14. Have a good afternoon, David It depends upon the utilization if the company can achieve $100m FCF in future. If the company can keep revenue at current level that can get $100m FCF. They have given the guidance that they are optimistic about 2012. IMOS gets 3 month forecast in advance from their customers.I think by now they have fair understanding of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Wrote some of my thought on ChipMOS on my blog @ http://alphavulture.com/2012/07/23/chipmos-technologies-imos/ Cliff notes: I do think there could be value at the current price, but I also think that you shouldn't just focus on the current FCF yield. Asset value also matters, historical results have been pretty poor the past 10 years and insiders don't have a lot of skin in the game. Too hard for me to be confident that there is a margin of safety at todays prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuehunter7 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I used to live in Taiwan, and followed the global sector quite closely. Long term I love TSM, even ASX and SPIL following an inventory correction. Some years ago SPIL had a relationship with ChipMOS - SPIL held an equity stake and would direct their client's low end memory work their way. But ChipMOS was never a leading player in this sector by any stretch of the imagination. In a nutshell, nothing in this thread has been enough to peak my interest in having a closer look. For starters, capacity is not generic for packaging ICs. Even the largest players must frequently buy new equipment (capex) to service new product generations of their existing client base. The problem with small players like ChipMOS is they configure for a few clients and then get crushed when the cycle inevitably turns. By the time things improve equipment may have grown obsolete. You need to know what type of equipment (capacity) they own, what business they aim to capture, and from whom they aim to capture it. On TSM's earnings call last week they stated they expect an inventory correction later this year. Wherefore ChipMOS? Under the circumstances just thinking there are better opportunities to explore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Hielko I read your blog .Lots of interesting stuff. I agree IMOS is in a very high capex industry with little moat. But there could be short term catalysts like increased dividend and buyback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltybit Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 New article on SA Pro http://seekingalpha.com/article/2210273-chipmos-catalysts-plus-excess-capital-should-drive-50-percent-upside?ifp=0 (available for general readers right now) Klarman/Baupost Group owns a significant chunk. Looks like Chipmos's industries have undergone some consolidation just like the DRAM segment. (MU, etc.) They have also massively deleveraged and now have an attractive balance sheet. I personally own IMOS and have for > 1 year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltybit Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 New article on SA Pro http://seekingalpha.com/article/2210273-chipmos-catalysts-plus-excess-capital-should-drive-50-percent-upside?ifp=0 (available for general readers right now) Klarman/Baupost Group owns a significant chunk. Looks like Chipmos's industries have undergone some consolidation just like the DRAM segment. (MU, etc.) They have also massively deleveraged and now have an attractive balance sheet. I personally own IMOS and have for > 1 year. One interesting tidbit is that the SA author seems to be the one that Einhorn sued. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2106353-seeking-alpha-and-david-einhorn-the-real-story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltybit Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Up today on good q1 results (a seasonally weaker quarter) http://investor.shareholder.com/chipmos/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=847795 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltybit Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Off by a lot today, due to Microchip warning triggering selloff. http://www.benzinga.com/news/14/10/4912439/microchip-technology-inc-falls-sharply-on-lowered-guidance Their September #s are already posted and Q3 is on the high end of guidance for revenue and gross profit: http://investor.shareholder.com/chipmos/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=875358 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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