zippy1 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Personally MSFT is up about 10%+ for me since Harry said it should be shorted. ;D I always like to track my investment returns based on daily, weekly and monthly numbers though. That makes the most sense to me. :o Ha! Ha! I shall vow to one-up you by tracking the investment performance hour-by-hour and maybe if I can do it, minute-by-minute. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Personally MSFT is up about 10%+ for me since Harry said it should be shorted. ;D I always like to track my investment returns based on daily, weekly and monthly numbers though. That makes the most sense to me. :o Ha! Ha! I shall vow to one-up you by tracking the investment performance hour-by-hour and maybe if I can do it, minute-by-minute. ;D If by 9:31 am on each trading day I am not in positive territory in my portfolio the whole day is ruined. I then liquidate in order to find brand new ideas which I expect to put into place by no later than 10 am. I know I need to give it some time to work so I check in again around 10:15. I am a long term buy and hold investor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Why the sad face? Did you short it? I bought GOOG 3 weeks ago. Up 24% since then. That's too short a time period for me to pat myself on the back and have an opinion either way on the correctness of my analysis, but I'm happy with Mr. Market;s mood right now and glad I didn't dither for a few days more... No, I actually bought GOOG a few weeks ago too. Made it a smaller position though. Up about 25%, has been a nice surprise. Harry Long loves to come out and brag and push back on anyone who was skeptical of his idea, when his pick is up 10 or 15% in some short period of time. He of course is no where to be seen when one of his picks is down. Follow this thread, when anyone of his shorts was off 15 or 20%, he'd come back with a proud smiley face, letting us all know about it. I'm just letting him know that not all of his picks are going down. ;D I was wrong about Google. No question about it. Consider this my official frowny face :'( I am definitely here to be seen when I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Here are some things I'm short and/or some potential shorts I'm thinking about. From a probabalistic point of view, they're interesting. We'll see what happens. AVII BTX BVN DLB GERN GOOG HALO INFY ISIS WAVX NVAX HDB NABI CNQR CYTX TRGT NG HTWR MITI MSFT PHI QLGC RMBS SCCO SID SLAB TAT UNIS WHX GNI Nice day on NABI. Down 69% so far today! I know Hester's not a fan, but if you look at the list, which is probabilistic in nature, overall, it's done very, very nicely! ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Here are some things I'm short and/or some potential shorts I'm thinking about. From a probabalistic point of view, they're interesting. We'll see what happens. AVII BTX BVN DLB GERN GOOG HALO INFY ISIS WAVX NVAX HDB NABI CNQR CYTX TRGT NG HTWR MITI MSFT PHI QLGC RMBS SCCO SID SLAB TAT UNIS WHX GNI Nice day on NABI. Down 69% so far today! I know Hester's not a fan, but if you look at the list, which is probabilistic in nature, overall, it's done very, very nicely! ;D But Harry, we're looking for Lake Wobegon companies where the trades are all above average. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Here are some things I'm short and/or some potential shorts I'm thinking about. From a probabalistic point of view, they're interesting. We'll see what happens. AVII BTX BVN DLB GERN GOOG HALO INFY ISIS WAVX NVAX HDB NABI CNQR CYTX TRGT NG HTWR MITI MSFT PHI QLGC RMBS SCCO SID SLAB TAT UNIS WHX GNI Nice day on NABI. Down 69% so far today! I know Hester's not a fan, but if you look at the list, which is probabilistic in nature, overall, it's done very, very nicely! ;D Your black box predicted their phase 3 trial would fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 But Harry, we're looking for Lake Wobegone companies where the trades are all above average. ;) Not quite. I just find the fact that after Harry posts a very long list of shorts, then feels the need to brag when one of them gyrates down a little in a month, and ignores the fact that about half the others have gyrated up a little this month, a little... intellectually dishonest. It would be like me bragging to other sports fans every day my Chicago Cubs win, and remaining silent every time they lose (For the record, this portfolio and probably every one else's on the board will no doubt perform better than the Cubs.) Also, just out of curiosity, I punched each of the stocks into a google finance comparitive chart from June 6 (first trading day after they were posted) to now. The return of the "portfolio" of shorts listed, assuming equal weighting, is down about 2.3% since posted. And that's after NABI was crushed from the negative trial. Suffice it to say that won't be happening every month and a half. After transaction costs of entering 30 stocks, and HTB fees (some stocks I know from experience are very hard/costly to borrow, like GNI), the return is probably very close to zero so far, in line with the market. It's not bad Harry, but it's nothing to brag about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vish_ram Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I took the companies that Harry long posted and put them in finviz. I checked the past month performance (he has posted on jun 5th). A theoretical portfolio with 100$ each in each of 30 stock has returned $3095, so the short position has a loss of $95 excluding commissions & other fees. Pl see the attachment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 A theoretical portfolio with 100$ each in each of 30 stock has returned $3095, so the short position has a loss of $95 excluding commissions & other fees. If the assets are with a fund manager, depending on how they receive their management fees (incentive, fixed or both), then there would also be that expense. Unfortunately, I'm in agreement with Buffett & Munger on this subject. Why would you want to have a basket of 30 positions plus? Diversification or deworsification? Much easier to find things to go long on and just buy a few...the upside is significantly more as well! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Very true. Of course, I was short the list a while before I posted them, so I've enjoyed a better return. Overall, you have long, you have shorts, if you can make a bit on the shorts, which we have, it's better than a costless hedge, it's a hedge that makes you money. That's the logic behind it. But I don't view them strictly as a hedge, I view them as a vehicle to make alpha, so long as one doesn't make the mistake of thinking every short is a terminal short. If you can pick up 20-30% on a short, or even 10%-20% and repeat, I think you're doing well. They're not all bad companies at all, as we've seen ;), they're just mispriced sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Interesting strategy Harry. Long-short in this market makes sense. Thanks for your aced persecutive or as they say "color". Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Here are some things I'm short and/or some potential shorts I'm thinking about. From a probabalistic point of view, they're interesting. We'll see what happens. AVII BTX BVN DLB GERN GOOG HALO INFY ISIS WAVX NVAX HDB NABI CNQR CYTX TRGT NG HTWR MITI MSFT PHI QLGC RMBS SCCO SID SLAB TAT UNIS WHX GNI Nice day on NABI. Down 69% so far today! I know Hester's not a fan, but if you look at the list, which is probabilistic in nature, overall, it's done very, very nicely! :o Your black box predicted their phase 3 trial would fail? Actually, there is a black box that can predict something similar to this, but Harry obviously didn't use that particular black box because his prediction was issued at he wrong time of the year. :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Very true. Of course, I was short the list a while before I posted them, so I've enjoyed a better return. Overall, you have long, you have shorts, if you can make a bit on the shorts, which we have, it's better than a costless hedge, it's a hedge that makes you money. That's the logic behind it. But I don't view them strictly as a hedge, I view them as a vehicle to make alpha, so long as one doesn't make the mistake of thinking every short is a terminal short. If you can pick up 20-30% on a short, or even 10%-20% and repeat, I think you're doing well. They're not all bad companies at all, as we've seen ;), they're just mispriced sometimes. But, unless you are a market maker, doesn't shorting eat up your available capital or margin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Why would you want to have a basket of 30 positions plus? Especially when constantly changing those 30+ positions. And those are just shorts. How ,ay positions do you typically have at a time Harry? I know guys like Peter Lynch did well holding hundreds of positions at a time, but it doesn't make any sense to me. I'd be happier just owning Apple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 First they scoff at the shorts, then they wish they had them. That's the public for you. Anyone can pose as a contrarian. Few actually walk the walk. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabbitisrich Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 When the pubics start walking, this investor starts running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 That's the pubic for you. I guess that's why they call you "Harry" :P Ok, tasteless joke time is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Congrats on the shorts Harry, Hope all is well my friend! I certainly wish I had some shorts in this market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 That's the pubic for you. I guess that's why they call you "Harry" :P Ok, tasteless joke time is over. I just about spit out some coffee on that one. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Did anyone else short the list? First they laugh, then they cry. Am I still "intellectually dishonest" Hester? I know you care about the long term and would like to compliment me on my profits after the inventory has had a chance to age nicely like fine wine ;D No hard feelings buddy. People with different views are what make a market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardGibbons Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Did anyone else short the list? First they laugh, then they cry. Am I still "intellectually dishonest" Hester? I know you care about the long term and would like to compliment me on my profits after the inventory has had a chance to age nicely like fine wine ;D It's unclear whether any shorts did well because you found a good list of shorts, or because we just went through the 6th biggest point drop on the Dow. (Unless you're claiming that your entire portfolio was short, or that you at least increased the number of shorts, but I didn't get that impression originally.) Or, maybe you just picked volatile stocks which tend to move more than the market, and the market moved down. I'm not claiming that you're being intellectually dishonest, but the minimum level of analysis requires showing that the portfolio went down more than the market. (And a fair level of analysis would be showing that, if you outperformed, it's not just because you named a bunch of high beta stocks as shorts right before a crash.) That said, if our positions were reversed, I might not want to spend the time posting proper analysis either. So, don't feel obliged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Here we go again with the ex ante equivocation. Anyone else was free to put on a jersey, get on the field, and put out a long list of shorts back in June. I'm not sure if anyone else did ;D That's OK. The smart institutions lurk and listen to the debate on the board. They seem to be my real audience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Interesting strategy Harry. Long-short in this market makes sense. Thanks for your aced persecutive or as they say "color". Lol It does. Truly long/short always goes out of style right before a big drop. Thanks for the props Eric. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Congrats on the shorts Harry, Hope all is well my friend! I certainly wish I had some shorts in this market. Thanks Shane, I appreciate the support. You and a few other guys actually enjoy it when I bring profitable ideas to the board's attention. ;D Most other folks would rather be "right." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seshnath Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Here are some things I'm short and/or some potential shorts I'm thinking about. From a probabalistic point of view, they're interesting. We'll see what happens. AVII BTX BVN DLB GERN GOOG HALO INFY ISIS WAVX NVAX HDB NABI CNQR CYTX TRGT NG HTWR MITI MSFT PHI QLGC RMBS SCCO SID SLAB TAT UNIS WHX GNI INFY Short is great. They have lot of headwinds since 2008 or so. Don't get the HDB short, though. It is one of the well managed banks in India that hasn't lost its head lending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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