Likelihood of recession in the next six months

[shalab]

Here is a poll on what the group think is.

[tooskinneejs]

Three voting choices above 50 percent likelihood and only one choice below?

[DCG]

Stores and restaurants around me seem to always be real busy. Many flights and hotels seem to often be booked. People are still spending money.

[Gopinath]

Its just too difficult for me to answer this question.. recession?? what does it even mean? global economic slowdown(GDP growth..what about the things that are conveniently not included)? Looks like nobody know that one :-)..

[bookie71]

Don't you have to end a recession before another can start?

[Packer16]

I fall in the I don't have a clue category as the stock market has predicted the last 10 out of 5 recessions.

 

 

Packer

[tombgrt]

Time for a bump.

 

Suddenly you see multiple topics popping up about the economic malaise. Also before, there were some topics about people questioning the us dollar, others looking to hedge against a us default, etc. Sentiment seems to change but I don't know exactly what has changed in the last week and month?

 

Are others changing their view as well?  ???

 

 

[A_Hamilton]

I thought a lot of people on this board held FFH shares? Anyone realize they are prepped for a major economic contraction throughout the western world? Long long dated treasuries, 85% hedged equity book, $50 billion notional exposure in protection against deflation which cost them half a billion dollars? What do people on this board see that suggests we are not going to have a recession?

[JAllen]

The U.S Govt.'s reported GDP figures are essentially flat; that means GDP "growth" is probably slightly negative already.

[ubuy2wron]

I think the economy contracted during the month of July in the USA, some of it was  consumers sitting on their wallets during the protracted debt ceiling debate a recession is 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP, a banking crises in Europe will pretty much tip us over into negative territory as far as the US economy is concerned. I think a European banking crises is at least a 50 50 proposition therefor a recession certainly is not a faint chance it is smelling more and more like 1937. While I make those bearish statements I removed 2/3 of my hedges in the last 24 hours cuz it appears that the mkt is the very short term oversold and a lot of people have jumped into the bear camp in the last week.