Jump to content

GME - Game Stop Corp


cmattporter

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 647
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

I think an important part of the story is the Citron debacle.

 

In the middle of the trading day on Thursday Citron released this video. One of the statements made in the video is "you won't see a squeeze from here on in."

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEi2axM4hwI&feature=youtu.be

 

Roughly 24 hours later Citron released the attached statement. I would imagine that bulls, not without reason, saw this statement as complete capitulation. So one way to think about this is that, ~24 hours after denying a short squeeze would happen, Citron probably played a not insignificant role in creating one.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gamestop-citron/citrons-left-is-still-short-gamestop-even-as-stock-bounds-higher-idUSKBN29V291

 

Despite saying he was done speaking out about GME on Friday, Left gives Reuters an interview today about GME in which he basically paints himself as the weak hand at the poker table. I continue to be baffled by his recent behavior:

 

Step one: Release a short video on Thursday that more-or-less taunts longs

 

Step two: Concede defeat on Friday

 

Step three: Give an interview on Tuesday in which you say you are stressed out, but still in the fight

 

 

None of those steps makes the least bit of sense to me given that Left is purportedly trying to make money on a short position

Link to comment
Share on other sites

to be short the stock or long the bonds makes little sense to me. they are both short volatility positions in an fundamental situation of extreme volatility (collapsing sales and share count).

 

I think the above still applies (with the twist that sharecount is now growing)

 

there are 67mm shares short, there are 69mm shares, maybe they raise 8mm more. nevertheless, the fact that a very large percentage of shares is short, in my view, is reason enough to avoid shorting this. the 10's of 2023 only yield 8% which is not enough to lend to GME.

 

in this market, basically anything that's very risky to short, one should go long. I haven't really done this in size as I'm allergic to making money.

 

how quaint that I thought this was late innings on the 13th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think an important part of the story is the Citron debacle.

 

In the middle of the trading day on Thursday Citron released this video. One of the statements made in the video is "you won't see a squeeze from here on in."

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEi2axM4hwI&feature=youtu.be

 

Roughly 24 hours later Citron released the attached statement. I would imagine that bulls, not without reason, saw this statement as complete capitulation. So one way to think about this is that, ~24 hours after denying a short squeeze would happen, Citron probably played a not insignificant role in creating one.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gamestop-citron/citrons-left-is-still-short-gamestop-even-as-stock-bounds-higher-idUSKBN29V291

 

Despite saying he was done speaking out about GME on Friday, Left gives Reuters an interview today about GME in which he basically paints himself as the weak hand at the poker table. I continue to be baffled by his recent behavior:

 

Step one: Release a short video on Thursday that more-or-less taunts longs

 

Step two: Concede defeat on Friday

 

Step three: Give an interview on Tuesday in which you say you are stressed out, but still in the fight

 

 

None of those steps makes the least bit of sense to me given that Left is purportedly trying to make money on a short position

 

I didn't see him concede defeat. I saw him say he'd no longer be commenting on it due to threats to his family and then joked about changing his price target to $89 from $20, but that was all

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s tempting but....Consider the last big short squeeze with VW a few years back. For a brief moment it became the most high valued company. So what price would GME shares reach if it similarly became the highest valued, the 2.5T valuation that Apple holds? It would mean increase of 466x current levels or a increase from the current $148 per share to $69,000 !

 

Maybe GME will be set up to issue 10% outstanding at $69,000 per share. That would net them $250B and just that 10% would be 20 times more valueable than 100% of their shares today. They probably should sell shares, either way they will defeat the billionaire short sellers.

 

I bought 1 $140 put for 2/5... I couldn't resist at these levels. Currently trading at $147.00. Might lose but hope to gain with a fall after options expiration on Friday...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s tempting but....Consider the last big short squeeze with VW a few years back. For a brief moment it became the most high valued company. So what price would GME shares reach if it similarly became the highest valued, the 2.5T valuation that Apple holds? It would mean increase of 466x current levels or a increase from the current $148 per share to $69,000 !

 

Maybe GME will be set up to issue 10% outstanding at $69,000 per share. That would net them $250B and just that 10% would be 20 times more valueable than 100% of their shares today. They probably should sell shares, either way they will defeat the billionaire short sellers.

 

I bought 1 $140 put for 2/5... I couldn't resist at these levels. Currently trading at $147.00. Might lose but hope to gain with a fall after options expiration on Friday...

 

As far as percentage gain trough to peak, I am fairly certain GME already exceeded the Volkswagen squeeze, that was from $70ish to almost $1K. It is also a much different situation. VW was a surprise take over. This is psychology and mob mentality. I have thought about buying some puts but I don't want to risk early exercise. Disregard last comment, wasn't thinking straight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it's closer to a Tilray than a VW.  TLRY topped out at 300.00 exactly.  Maybe GME will do something close to that.  The shares outstanding of GME is about the same as it was for TLRY too, topping out around $25b market cap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Michael Burry weighing in?  :o

 

“If I put $GME on your radar, and you did well, I’m genuinely happy for you. However, what is going on now – there should be legal and regulatory repercussions. This is unnatural, insane, and dangerous.”

@SEC_Enforcement

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1354236890237390851

 

So ban short selling beyond 100% float?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now the redditors have a billionaire on their side...

 

Updated link:

 

 

Chamath isn't on their side, he's taking advantage of them in a different way, imo.

 

The same people who will say "go hard on this bro" to Chamath are exactly the same ones he needs to bid up all of his SPACs. I think its very likely he is looking at these calls as a marketing expense to WSB types.

 

A bunch of them are going to have a lot of extra cash in their accounts after this, and he is going to want them to put that all into IPOA-Z. If he is a folk here to r/WSB, they're likely to put more money into his SPACs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Michael Burry weighing in?  :o

 

“If I put $GME on your radar, and you did well, I’m genuinely happy for you. However, what is going on now – there should be legal and regulatory repercussions. This is unnatural, insane, and dangerous.”

@SEC_Enforcement

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1354236890237390851

 

So ban short selling beyond 100% float?

 

You'd have to show that it was short-covering that led to this and not redditors bidding it up and forcing gamma squeezes to intentionally attempt to squeeze the shorts.

 

The only shorts that I've seen publicly capitulate did so in their letters for Q4 - before this went insane. The primary two shorts, Citron and Melvin, are seemingly holding tight with Melvin having just raised 2.75 billion to hold the line.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now the redditors have a billionaire on their side...

 

Updated link:

 

 

Chamath isn't on their side, he's taking advantage of them in a different way, imo.

 

The same people who will say "go hard on this bro" to Chamath are exactly the same ones he needs to bid up all of his SPACs. I think its very likely he is looking at these calls as a marketing expense to WSB types.

 

A bunch of them are going to have a lot of extra cash in their accounts after this, and he is going to want them to put that all into IPOA-Z. If he is a folk here to r/WSB, they're likely to put more money into his SPACs.

 

Exactly correct. It is a play to his crowd of investors and followers. A very shrewd move.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is Melvin actually short? I've seen a list of his put positions but is there evidence he's short?

 

I mean, I don't think he was forced to take a $2.75 billion bailout and lose 1/3 of his firm because his losses were knowable and fixed in amount on the front end.

 

If so, that's just terrible risk management to have position sizes that large to begin with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...