Castanza Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 https://twitter.com/mrs_skilling/status/1352679717137076224?s=21 LOL would be funny if this was real. Also, it looks like BB might be next on the radar for r/wsb. You FFH boys might be in for an early Christmas present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadMan24 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Citron going public with a short case today. https://twitter.com/CitronResearch/status/1351544479547760642 Seems like a superficial argument to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 So did that guy on reddit turn like $50,000 into $15 million (or something)? Talk about balls of steel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Only if you are into gambling. No margin of safety and no way to value a meme. I will say I looked really hard at GME and TLRD when they first showed up on Burrys 13f last year. I almost pulled the trigger to follow him on GME but didn't feel like the MOS at the time was great enough. I'm ok that I sat this one out but it is quite a show to watch! Also glad I dodged his losses on TLRD. GME should put him back in the black though. Agree. Seems like a stupid game that no one is forced to play. Do you want to make money, or do you want to be a value investor? :) I actually think it looks like a massive opportunity. Just follow the herd stampede. It's unprecedented what we're seeing, so there should be opportunities on both sides. The hive mind grows bigger and bolder and more flush in cash the more it succeeds, which will attract even more to the game. A lot of shorts must consider whether they should unwind their shorts in the most crowded names to avoid being next in line, adding to the buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 so is there an easy way to see what these guys are pushing? It looks like BB is on their list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Wow WSB has almost 2 million subscribers now, I wonder what their collective buying power is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Meme investing beats value investing. Only if you are into gambling. No margin of safety and no way to value a meme. I will say I looked really hard at GME and TLRD when they first showed up on Burrys 13f last year. I almost pulled the trigger to follow him on GME but didn't feel like the MOS at the time was great enough. I'm ok that I sat this one out but it is quite a show to watch! Also glad I dodged his losses on TLRD. GME should put him back in the black though. The value of the meme is proportional to its dankness. So you want to use comp multiples and use the dank as your metric. Some use EV/dank however that is a mistake as dank memes do not care about long term liabs, so you have to use P/dank. Standard dankometer scale is 1-10 (Dankometer). This meme is most likely a 10 pointer but for conservatism's sake we will use 9. Price of a GME share is $62 as of writing. Therefore, at 62/9, GMW has a P/d of 6.9. If you look at the comparable universe, at least one meme of 9 to 10 points comes to mind; TSLA. TSLA rates 10/10 in dankness, it outranks GME slightly due to staying power but otherwise both are similar as they are both extremely potent. Efficient market hypothesis posits that all known information is reflected within this price. Thus, we assume a priori that TSLA is fairly valued and a perfect candidate for comparable analysis. TSLA currently trades at $838, which yields a 83.8 P/d. Therefore, GME at a P/d of 6.9 is extremely undervalued. I believe GME is worth approximately $5200 per share. I went all in on margin on weeklies and recommend STRONG BUY. “Dankometer.” Urban Dictionary, www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Dankometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Read the Footnotes Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Only if you are into gambling. No margin of safety and no way to value a meme. I will say I looked really hard at GME and TLRD when they first showed up on Burrys 13f last year. I almost pulled the trigger to follow him on GME but didn't feel like the MOS at the time was great enough. I'm ok that I sat this one out but it is quite a show to watch! Also glad I dodged his losses on TLRD. GME should put him back in the black though. Agree. Seems like a stupid game that no one is forced to play. Do you want to make money, or do you want to be a value investor? :) I actually think it looks like a massive opportunity. Just follow the herd stampede. It's unprecedented what we're seeing, so there should be opportunities on both sides. The hive mind grows bigger and bolder and more flush in cash the more it succeeds, which will attract even more to the game. A lot of shorts must consider whether they should unwind their shorts in the most crowded names to avoid being next in line, adding to the buying. You're leaving out the fact that based on previous behavior, for all we know Left/Citron agrees with you and has already gone long GME at this point. To each his own. Many ways to make money in the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Only if you are into gambling. No margin of safety and no way to value a meme. I will say I looked really hard at GME and TLRD when they first showed up on Burrys 13f last year. I almost pulled the trigger to follow him on GME but didn't feel like the MOS at the time was great enough. I'm ok that I sat this one out but it is quite a show to watch! Also glad I dodged his losses on TLRD. GME should put him back in the black though. Agree. Seems like a stupid game that no one is forced to play. Do you want to make money, or do you want to be a value investor? :) I actually think it looks like a massive opportunity. Just follow the herd stampede. It's unprecedented what we're seeing, so there should be opportunities on both sides. The hive mind grows bigger and bolder and more flush in cash the more it succeeds, which will attract even more to the game. A lot of shorts must consider whether they should unwind their shorts in the most crowded names to avoid being next in line, adding to the buying. Over and over we see this sort of mentality. The herd is quite predictable. Even just shorting puts on these names has been highly profitable and easy. Especially if you have any experience behind the behavior aspects driving all of this. Check out the weekly options. Its like playing house at the casino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Reminds me of the bucket shops from back in the ‘20’s. My teenage son said Wall Street Bets has over 1.9 million followers on subreddit (he follows it). That is some serious buying power when ‘it’ gets mobilized in the right stock. Makes sense you want to target companies that are heavily shorted. When the shorts are forced to cover a stock the demand for shares will increase and spike the price even more. Kind of the opposite of shorts trying to take down a company :-) My son said after GME, Blackberry is getting a fair bit of coverage (about 5%) of posts. Fingers crossed Fairfax is able to take advantage of the situation to realize some sizeable investments gains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This was posted already: https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment Possible candidates: BB, AMD, F, CRSR. Others are either too big or the sentiment is not that high. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tay9 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 In hindsight, this was a great setup. The WSB mentality is great for destroying shorts, particularly when there is a counter party that is so public. Looks like BB also got a bump shortly after the short squeeze. Rotation after taking profits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I actually think it looks like a massive opportunity. Just follow the herd stampede. It's unprecedented what we're seeing, so there should be opportunities on both sides. The hive mind grows bigger and bolder and more flush in cash the more it succeeds, which will attract even more to the game. A lot of shorts must consider whether they should unwind their shorts in the most crowded names to avoid being next in line, adding to the buying. I have absolutely no problems with making money this way. However, when you try to value a company you at least have some sort of anchor that you can use to a) gain confidence and b) guide your decision making. And my main gripe here is, what is my decision making process? What is my edge? How do I gain the confidence to hold? Can you quantify or qualify WSB sentiment? Put a price tag on it? Can you determine something from the chart? I had a tiny position in GME late last year (after talking about a short squeeze in this very topic) but I actually managed to lose a token amount of money on it. Why? It was going nowhere for a few days and I thought: what the fuck am I doing here? It wasn't going up anymore, so I sold. When your thesis is simply to 'join the crowd', how do you know when to buy? When to hold? When to sell? How to size your position? When to move on to the next stock? For me, these questions are basically impossible to answer, the result being that I absolutely don't see how I have an edge in trying to time and predict any of this madness. Sometimes I 'invest' a bit of play money but any serious trading expedition in names like these will end up with me doing random idiotic stuff and getting pissed off. I'm definitely not saying that it is impossible to make money in situations like this - but it seems impossible for myself without some sort of framework. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 DDS is always a short squeeze candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Honestly I see the GME investment as a form of value investing. Not based on the company's value but based on share availability. At its core that's a fundamental analysis, demand for shares is higher than available and an increase in demand triggers a non-linear increase in demand - shorts covering. Short interest was (is) absurdly high through much of Dec. something like 160% short when I checked it a few times, the set up was there. That the WSB meme culture encouraged everyone to hold instead of taking gains at say 25 is what's impressive. You can see the initial spike up in early Dec. where GME flirted with $20 and the corresponding sell-off. That's a pretty natural market reaction and if you'd gotten into GME in the mid single digits that run up would have been a hell of a validation for your thesis and probably when you took most of your money off the table. That a couple hundred thousand kids decided to FOMO into the trade with the same thesis and adopt a culture of screw the shorts, never sell, is a black swan type event the market has likely never seen before. These aren't rational investors. What stops them from doing the same in another heavily shorted stock with similar results? Choose a stock with the right market cap and short interest, craft a narrative, and profit. Short sellers have always been vilified by management and long investors. Add to that the power of a rabid army of individual investors out for the blood of short sellers, regardless of whether they're "right" valuation wise, and you have to wonder if short selling is a thing of the past. At least in the public way it's often done where firms issue a thesis on why XYZ is overvalued/fraudulent etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I actually think it looks like a massive opportunity. Just follow the herd stampede. It's unprecedented what we're seeing, so there should be opportunities on both sides. The hive mind grows bigger and bolder and more flush in cash the more it succeeds, which will attract even more to the game. A lot of shorts must consider whether they should unwind their shorts in the most crowded names to avoid being next in line, adding to the buying. I have absolutely no problems with making money this way. However, when you try to value a company you at least have some sort of anchor that you can use to a) gain confidence and b) guide your decision making. And my main gripe here is, what is my decision making process? What is my edge? How do I gain the confidence to hold? Can you quantify or qualify WSB sentiment? Put a price tag on it? Can you determine something from the chart? I had a tiny position in GME late last year (after talking about a short squeeze in this very topic) but I actually managed to lose a token amount of money on it. Why? It was going nowhere for a few days and I thought: what the fuck am I doing here? It wasn't going up anymore, so I sold. When your thesis is simply to 'join the crowd', how do you know when to buy? When to hold? When to sell? How to size your position? When to move on to the next stock? For me, these questions are basically impossible to answer, the result being that I absolutely don't see how I have an edge in trying to time and predict any of this madness. Sometimes I 'invest' a bit of play money but any serious trading expedition in names like these will end up with me doing random idiotic stuff and getting pissed off. I'm definitely not saying that it is impossible to make money in situations like this - but it seems impossible for myself without some sort of framework. I would not suggest investing this way. It might be possible to look at the list of high WSB sentiment stocks and if you see something that is attractive to you for other reasons, do DD and buy it. And maybe get 2x-5x in couple days, maybe not. Just one approach. Not advocating it. I can say that I'd never be able to hold a sizeable position of crappy stonk like GME for 10x-100x return on WSB sentiment... ::) It's hard enough to hold a small position of non-crappy stock that has gone up 10x+ and trades at ridiculous valuation. ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I actually think it looks like a massive opportunity. Just follow the herd stampede. It's unprecedented what we're seeing, so there should be opportunities on both sides. The hive mind grows bigger and bolder and more flush in cash the more it succeeds, which will attract even more to the game. A lot of shorts must consider whether they should unwind their shorts in the most crowded names to avoid being next in line, adding to the buying. I have absolutely no problems with making money this way. However, when you try to value a company you at least have some sort of anchor that you can use to a) gain confidence and b) guide your decision making. And my main gripe here is, what is my decision making process? What is my edge? How do I gain the confidence to hold? Can you quantify or qualify WSB sentiment? Put a price tag on it? Can you determine something from the chart? I had a tiny position in GME late last year (after talking about a short squeeze in this very topic) but I actually managed to lose a token amount of money on it. Why? It was going nowhere for a few days and I thought: what the fuck am I doing here? It wasn't going up anymore, so I sold. When your thesis is simply to 'join the crowd', how do you know when to buy? When to hold? When to sell? How to size your position? When to move on to the next stock? For me, these questions are basically impossible to answer, the result being that I absolutely don't see how I have an edge in trying to time and predict any of this madness. Sometimes I 'invest' a bit of play money but any serious trading expedition in names like these will end up with me doing random idiotic stuff and getting pissed off. I'm definitely not saying that it is impossible to make money in situations like this - but it seems impossible for myself without some sort of framework. I totally agree. I'm not playing this game myself. Wouldn't know how to do it either. It just seems like we have a new situation at hand, something I don't recall seeing before, so smart people will figure out how to exploit it. What is interesting is that you could see this thing grow and spread to other highly shorted targets that retail knows. BB seems like a strange pick, but you'd think these people know Cinemas and AMC. Perhaps just set off a small amount, consider it gambling like going to the casino, but with better odds I would think. I don't gamble, not for me, but it's interesting to observe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'm a huge numbers nerd. What would be awesome is if you, for example, can scrape r/WSB and see if the number of posts on a day correlates with future returns. That is something I could get behind (and something I am sure people like Rentech and the likes are already doing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I totally agree. I'm not playing this game myself. Wouldn't know how to do it either. It just seems like we have a new situation at hand, something I don't recall seeing before, so smart people will figure out how to exploit it. What is interesting is that you could see this thing grow and spread to other highly shorted targets that retail knows. BB seems like a strange pick, but you'd think these people know Cinemas and AMC. Perhaps just set off a small amount, consider it gambling like going to the casino, but with better odds I would think. I don't gamble, not for me, but it's interesting to observe. Well, AMC peak comments were 2 days ago. Does not mean that there won't be another peak in coming days. So, yeah, one could buy AMC. I won't, since I won't invest into possible BK candidates on WSB sentiment. I may or may not buy the stocks I mentioned abovethread. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well that one guy now turned his $50,000 investment into $11 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadMan24 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well that one guy now turned his $50,000 investment into $11 million. Guy has balls of steel, but without knowing his whole net worth, was that $50k a significant portion of his net worth, or just chump change as he is already a millionaire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well that one guy now turned his $50,000 investment into $11 million. Guy has balls of steel, but without knowing his whole net worth, was that $50k a significant portion of his net worth, or just chump change as he is already a millionaire. Pretty sure he's said it's a life changing investment. But it is the internet so take it for what it's worth. You can go back and look at his rationale a year ago when he first got involved with GME and having the fortitude to hold through all this is amazing. Granted his Jan calls expired and it looks like that 2 mil or so is sitting in cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well that one guy now turned his $50,000 investment into $11 million. Guy has balls of steel, but without knowing his whole net worth, was that $50k a significant portion of his net worth, or just chump change as he is already a millionaire. Even if he's a millionaire, these are still adamantium cojones. I would not be able to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadMan24 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well that one guy now turned his $50,000 investment into $11 million. Guy has balls of steel, but without knowing his whole net worth, was that $50k a significant portion of his net worth, or just chump change as he is already a millionaire. Even if he's a millionaire, these are still adamantium cojones. I would not be able to do it. Agreed. He was high conviction since his earlier comments/posts, and now... he's considered a legend lol He's got a great username too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 BTW, his 2M in cash is from selling his Jan 2021 calls at various times. Some close or at expiration. https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/ Can be said to be reasonable strategy of taking money off the table. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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