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XCO - EXCO


RRJ

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Insider buying by Ross sparked my interest in this company.  The top 5 insiders are quite an established list of fine investors and own the following as a %:

 

Ross - 24%

Marks - 21%

Ares Capital - 5%

Watsa - 5%

T. Boone Pickens - 4%

 

The last time Ross and Watsa teamed up, there was good news I believe in ICO?

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Insider buying by Ross sparked my interest in this company.  The top 5 insiders are quite an established list of fine investors and own the following as a %:

 

Ross - 24%

Marks - 21%

Ares Capital - 5%

Watsa - 5%

T. Boone Pickens - 4%

 

The last time Ross and Watsa teamed up, there was good news I believe in ICO?

 

 

 

Ross and Watsa also teamed up on  Bank of Ireland. That was a also a home run.

 

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Insider buying by Ross sparked my interest in this company.  The top 5 insiders are quite an established list of fine investors and own the following as a %:

 

Ross - 24%

Marks - 21%

Ares Capital - 5%

Watsa - 5%

T. Boone Pickens - 4%

 

The last time Ross and Watsa teamed up, there was good news I believe in ICO?

 

 

 

Ross and Watsa also teamed up on  Bank of Ireland. That was a also a home run.

 

In this scenario it looks like Watsa doesn't have the same type of conviction as Ross though but it is real nice to see both Ross and Pickens on the BOD though. 

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http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/01/prem-watsa-stake-exco-resources/

 

Watsa, who is considered by some people in the investment industry as the Warren Buffett of Canada, purchased an additional 6,726,712 share in EXCO Resources Inc (NYSE:XCO) bringing his total stake in the oil and natural gas company to 17,538,912 shares.

 

Isn't that due to the Rights exercise? or did he openly bought more>?

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Isn't that due to the Rights exercise? or did he openly bought more>?

 

According to the new release: http://www.excoresources.com/single-news-release.htm?regid=1891745

the 6.7M allocation to PW is due to the offering.

 

The rights offering entitled holders to buy 1 share at $5 for every 4 shares held. Before the offering PW had ~11M shares. So ~ 11/4 or 3.7M shares are due to the rights offering, and ~6.7-3.7 or 3M are because of backstop.

 

I added to XCO today, NG hit $4.8 (three year highs?), but XCO is trading at three year lows.

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Isn't that due to the Rights exercise? or did he openly bought more>?

 

According to the new release: http://www.excoresources.com/single-news-release.htm?regid=1891745

the 6.7M allocation to PW is due to the offering.

 

The rights offering entitled holders to buy 1 share at $5 for every 4 shares held. Before the offering PW had ~11M shares. So ~ 11/4 or 3.7M shares are due to the rights offering, and ~6.7-3.7 or 3M are because of backstop.

 

I added to XCO today, NG hit $4.8 (three year highs?), but XCO is trading at three year lows.

 

I am long some XCO and believe it will be taken private . . . but I wouldn't get too excited about natural gas.  The forward curve has barely moved.

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What is the attraction here apart from the fact that these big guys own it?  It looks like a terrible business, with basically no earnings...Calling these drilling costs "capital expenditures" seems kind of disingenuous with the apparent rates of depletion that they have, given they increase "cap ex" and production declines 15% in 2014. In any other industry, it seems like they'd just be called expenses, and it'd be even more clear on the earnings statement that the company is losing large amounts of money. I know Exco is not alone in this and all of these companies do it. If you're convinced of rising natural gas prices, why don't you just bet on that directly? Thanks. 

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Of course they're capital expenditures...

 

The issue is:

- Are the depreciation rates appropriate?  I'm guessing that XCO uses the units of production method.  If expected ultimate recovery (EUR) is overstated by 2X, then the depreciation rate would be half what it should be.

- Are they capitalizing interest and internal costs?  Is this appropriate?

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  • 2 weeks later...

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/a-legendary-investor-has-lost-millions-on-this-energy-stock-but-hes-buying-even-more-cm323031

 

To be sure, it's hard to come up with a target price for an energy driller like this. Analysts like to talk about current production run rates or EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) multiples, but hedge funds and mutual funds are more interested in the relative value of a company's real estate and the longer-term potential of the firm's energy fields.

 

Is Exco worth $6 or $7 a share? By taking such large stakes, Ross, Watsa and Oaktree are likely presuming the upside is much greater than that.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Guest hellsten

Interesting to read about what Wilbur Ross has been doing with Diamond Shipping and Navigator Holdings.

 

Diamond S Shipping Group Inc, which is backed by billionaire-investor Wilbur Ross, filed with U.S. regulators to raise up to $100 million in an initial public offering of its common stock.

WL Ross & Co, which currently holds about 32 percent stake in Diamond S Shipping, has been betting on the shipping sector, which is in an extended downturn since the global economic crisis of 2008.

 

Shares of Ross-controlled liquefied gas carrier Navigator Holdings Ltd rose as much as 11 percent in their market debut in November.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/diamondsshipping-ipo-idUSL3N0L943720140204

 

Diamond S Shipping Group, a WL Ross-backed petroleum shipping company and one of the largest operators of medium range tankers, announced terms for its IPO on Wednesday. The Greenwich, CT-based company plans to raise $210 million by offering 14 million shares at a price range of $14 to $16. At the midpoint of the proposed range, Diamond S Shipping would command a market value of $710 million.

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/petroleum-transporter-diamond-s-shipping-group-sets-terms-for-210-million-ipo-cm330027#ixzz2unAns12y

 

 

Sum of the Parts – Wilbur Ross Keeps Busy:

http://www.marinemoney.com/sites/all/themes/marinemoney/publications/awards/2012_EditorsChoice2.pdf

 

Catch him if you can. We’re out of breath.

 

Navigator holdings presentation:

http://www.navigatorgas.com/ckfinder/userfiles/files/Stifel%20Transportation%20%26%20Logistics%20Conference%20(Feb%2012%202014).pdf

 

LPG DYNAMICS Robust Industry Fundamentals Driven by U.S. Shale Gas

MARKET LEADER Largest Handysize and Ethylene-capable Gas Carrier Fleet in the World

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  • 1 month later...

XCO came out with results yesterday. I think play here is transition from oil to gas. There expected oil volume for 2014 are expected to be 2-2.2 million barrels. With their agreement with KKR we will see oil production increasing every quarter for 16 quarters starting Q1 2015 as they buyback interest in wells from KKR.

 

Company's current assumption of $4/mmbtu gas and $90/barrel oil look conservative and can provide further upside.

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  • 4 weeks later...

what would net income be? Like 500 million? that is more then twice the revenue they have now from latest quarter.. Half their costs seem relatively fixed.

 

that is a 2.5 PE

 

In fact, the skies were so clear that CEO Doug Miller and T. Boone Pickens attempted a going private transaction valuing the business at $4.35 billion. Now trading close to all-time lows, the skies for Exco are looking much darker. Acting quite human-like, the masses and shale boom players have given up. Meaning, any "Wilbur Ross factor" (deserved or un-deserved) is completely off the table. Should the Wilbur-factor be worth more than zero?

that is interesting. How would you get a better picture of what is going on here? If I read annual report I dont learn much here really.

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  • 2 months later...

Earnings seem ok to me too.  However there's a lot of pessimism about natural gas prices, which I think need to be higher for this company to do well.

 

Can someone tell me though why they don't have a CEO yet? It's been 9 months since Doug Miller left.

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  • 1 month later...

Figured I'd bump this one more time given the additional sell-off today on no news that I can see.

 

Thought we might have a rise in value today given the AH trades on Friday once the stock had been hammered into the close on option expiration day. That certainly did not occur with the stock selling off another 8-10% today.

 

Not sure if anyone has seen/heard anything that could be driving this. Looks like SD has had a couple of bad days as well.

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