sriraja Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 And one more day of free falling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Hamilton Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 And one more day of free falling.... The pain of SD and XCO glad my only holdings are through FFH, but what a bust these have been. Glad so much of the SD position is in the prefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sriraja Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Interesting fact is that Eagle Ford is generating now about 30% of their revenues. XCO and SD looks to mirror the financials during the 2009 - "Struggling to figure out the bottoms". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 wow,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usdtor05 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I got out of here yesterday down over 20% on the position overall...poor investment for a number of reasons. The final kicker was reading the last few years of the transcripts again in order and realizing: 1. Management didn't appear to even understand the participation agreement they entered into with KKR. Never a good sign when Management is saying "this is how we think it works" 2. Any time you sign a "3 inch contract" with a private equity firm like KKR, you better be pretty savvy...Doug Miller wouldn't appear to be all that savvy 3. Back in Q3 and Q4 they had some slides in the earning releases discussing the participation agreement with KKR. After spending more time with this, their return on this agreement looks pretty horrendous, even taking into account the majority of it is levered. The example well slide for the agreement in the earnings release (Q313) was based on 445Mboe EUR, Management has now stated they expected 375 Mboe EUR. I am not 100% sure where that oil is falling off (tail end, or up front) but if that is not long tail production that is a material change. 4. I wasn't able to wrap my hands around what EBITDA really looks like post participation buy-backs. They have given us some numbers around the EUR, the first year decline rate, and the % captured in year one so we can back into it but if we look at what they have to pay, the debt/EBITDAX number starts to look scarier, especially considering the fact that management said last quarter this is incremental. Maybe the central processing facilities bring online massive more oil that we are missing here in our analysis but it went into the too hard pile. 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wbr Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 since this is a bet on LNG, your better off buying O&G service companies trading at cheap multiples. With those you don't have the downside in case LNG does not work out very well, and all the upside. But I might be wrong. Since there was a take over bid for close to 20$ by insiders (?), there might be massive value here. I just have a hard time seeing it. Imo it is attractive to own a low cost producer with solid financials and low valuation in this space. You get massive upside on rising nat gas prices due to operating leverage. If nat gas moves against you don't lose much, because you can take the pain on an operating and financial level and the amrgin of safety absorbs some negative movements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usdtor05 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 @wbr, is XCO the low cost producer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wbr Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 @wbr, is XCO the low cost producer? Im just a tourist in this thread. I have no idea about XCO, I just wanted to find out why the price declined so much ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usdtor05 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Gotcha. I still think this participation agreement may turn into a bit of a wrecking ball on their leverage ratios so solid financial ratios might not be correct with Exco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Their balance sheet is showing that they have reduce liabilities quarter by quarter. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=XCO. I am down about 50% and I know when I went in that this is going to be a long term investment instead of quick fix. I guess we'll find out what happen in a few years. I am just afraid of further dilution if they have to issue more shares to pay off current liabilities/dividends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usdtor05 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 They deleveraged by selling their non their non-core assets and issuing equity, not through cash generation. They do own a lot of Marcellus HBP that they aren't really utilizing due to the rates there but I doubt they would want to sell those right now and even if so the prices being fetched for assets there wouldn't appear to make a material dent (plus BG is involved which complicates things). Maybe they will still swap to get contiguous acreage or get a reasonable price from someone trying to create it there but that's beyond me. My point is that in order to fund the buy-outs in 2015 they are going to have to add more leverage unless they cut the rest of their capital spend to do so which would create ebitda deterioration also. I am not sure if the cash they are going to get from owning the PDP is going to be enough to keep their leverage ratios from creeping up even more towards a real danger zone. As you said in the end its a long term play, you just want them to survive long enough for the natural gas story to come about. That is the part I am concerned with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Say gas goes up to 6 bucks, what kind of earning this can generate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usdtor05 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Well this is cheating because they have oil mixed in and at $6 you know they would be ramping haynesville and maybe even marcellus but keeping all else the same: 140,000 MMCFE (understated as more oil will come in 2h) x $6 = $840M Less Total operating costs assuming minimal operating leverage (should be some but to be conservative) per Mcfe Operating $0.32 Taxes $0.12 Gathering $0.71 G&A $0.52 Total = $1.67 x 140,000mmcfe = $234M EBITDA = $606M (versus $400ish now) But we know that would be ramped quickly...hell when the price went to $4.85 they immediately got approval to add $80M in capex which the market dumped all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 It won't reach to $6 anytime soon http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/bloomberg/SIG=13g68m0vg/*http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-02/exco-falls-to-lowest-ever-after-hedging-against-lower-gas-prices.html?cmpid=yhoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usdtor05 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Yes but the market will re-price the business, despite the hedges, if NG trades up to around that level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Is there a reason that they still pay a dividend? Looks really stupid to issue equity and pay it out as dividend some days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loganc Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Is there a reason that they still pay a dividend? Looks really stupid to issue equity and pay it out as dividend some days later. Agreed. I think this is true of a number of E&P companies. I know that some FFH people troll the board here. Would any be willing to provide a clue about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crip1 Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 "Exco, which has three hold and six sell ratings from analysts, has fallen 47 percent so far this year." I have a very small, non-needle moving position in this company as this business is on the outer limits of my circle of competence. But, that quote has got to excite the contrarian investor to no end. Others are fearful, is it time to be greedy? -Crip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 If the saudis are going to go to the matresses on a price war most of these frackers might be looking at nuclear winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usdtor05 Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 @loganc, I think that dividend is a relic. Use that cash flow to continue delevering/fund kkr buybacks and simply get your business in a place to survive for better time to come hopefully. It will be interesting to see if prices remain low what the buybacks look like. Does KKR take the full buy-out or continue on as a part owner if the PV-10 is too low. Best case for Exco if they could survive would actually be a depressed oil price at the time of the buy-outs enabling them to purchase them on the cheap and then profit if prices rise. Of course I am sure that in that 3inch agreement that exco signed with them there is some clause that enables them to win/make their return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 the pain doesnt end >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Lots of panic out there. 50 percent off recent right offering which multiple well known investors participate in. We just have Kuwait putting 1.5billion to work in Canada oil. Do u think they will do that if they see oil price will continue to collapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Anyone would like to comment on this? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exco-resources-inc-announces-sale-232900072.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Anyone would like to comment on this? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exco-resources-inc-announces-sale-232900072.html Seems like a good idea to me. The terms were good, I think, and this will strengthen the credit metrics to allow XCO to reload for more potential acquisitions in a troubled space. (The platform theory still holds.) At the same time, reducing the complexity of the organization could also be a positive in terms of making the company salable, if it comes to that. I have to say, I was a bit flummoxed by the market's reaction to the hedges they disclosed a couple of days ago. Seems like an odd reaction given how leveraged they are. I would think the market would want XCO to be pretty conservative, given the uncertainty of where nat gas prices are going. After all, XCO is pretty concentrated in what some smart folks I know would call a "marginal play." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Anyone knows who own XCO's debt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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