Jump to content

JEF - Jefferies Group


Liberty

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

any fresh thoughts on leucadia? seems that it could be cheap here. jefferies will probably have a great year. i also like the portfolio now. good, basic businesses that might benefit from being part of the group (access to capital etc). i think handler might be the real thing. seems humble (for a banker) and i have a feeling he's going to be in the billionaire club when he's done with banking. he gets paid a lot but he is the man to run this. also holds a quarter billion worth of stock.

 

handler said he's going to be opportunistic with buybacks, but having seen none probably means:

 

1) it's not cheap

2) there's better places to put the money (garcadia, berkadia?) or

3) he doesn't want to do a possibly "overpriced" buyback so soon after the merger, as if to not give a bad impression

 

i like it at these prices, even though i sold mine for a bit less. it would just be so easy to start buying if they were doing buybacks. it just feels like the market hates it now, and it might go to 0.6x book on some bad news.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the options you are looking at are old Jefferies options that are now based on .81 of a LUK share [81 shares per contract], that's why the pricing looks odd.  LUK2 vs LUK.

 

http://www.cboe.com/publish/TTStockSM/13-086.pdf

 

http://www.ise.com/assets/documents/optionsExchange/productNotices/equity_corp_actions/2013/2013-026$Jefferies_Group_Inc_(JEF)_-_Merger_With_Leucadia_National_Corporation_(LUK)$20130228.pdf

 

Sorry, should have checked the thread.  Thanks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think many investors have a misperception about stock buybacks. Buybacks have many motives and purposes but one that is seldom spoken about is the purpose of covering up inability to grow and poor returns on investment. Inability to grow, in turn, impacts valuations and prospects. Therefore a distinction should be made between returning money to shareholders and opportunity. They are inversely related. I've seen several financial firms buy back stock to mask the fact that they aren't able to find opportunities to reinvest at a decent return. I at least applaud LUK for not doing that. The financial sector has provided poor returns in the last few years (look at JPM and GS) but that can quickly change.

 

This chart suggests a substantial opportunity - http://lakecharlescleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/LCCE-Timeline.jpg

 

I expect an announcement sometime this year on the board of directors signing off on this project. I have seen estimates that this business can generate $200-$400 million per year in income. At the low end, on an equity investment of $500 million, is a 40% ROI. I don't think the market is pricing in the value of this project at all. It could be worth $2-3 billion or about $6-8 per Leucadia share.

 

Likewise, the carrying book value of Garcadia & Berkadia underestimates their current earning power, although National Beef's carrying value may overestimate it's earning power at the moment. Linkem is also an interesting animal. It very well could see an IPO and is growing fast.

 

Tangentially related, Greenspan's new book, 'The map and the territory' is an excellent read. It tries to answer the question of why there is a hesitancy to invest in long-lived assets and he argues that the uncertainty of social security liabilities and future tax rates is causing companies to build up cash and be fearful to invest in these long-range projects. This has a host of implications for unleashing some inflation. He also makes the interesting comment that we are not in a bubble because there is still substantial uncertainty and a prerequisite for bubble formation is a long period of relative calm and stability.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Any recommendations regarding how we should be calculating book value?  There's $1.7bn of goodwill from the JEF acquisition - you leave that it or take it out?  Also, I guess we have to adjust shares outstanding for the 14m odd RSUs?  They're all non-pay as far as I can tell so that's pure dilution with no cash offset.

 

I'd be interested in thoughts on how JEF is performing.  Looking at last year if I back out the gains from Harbinger, Knight, and acquisition accounting debt premiums, they scarcely seem to have made any money at all. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

10-Q is out:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/leucadia-national-corporation-announces-first-130600380.html

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96223/000009622314000016/lnc1stqtr2014form10q.htm

 

I previously thought we'd get some decent earnings from Jefferies (on a per share basis), but earnings and growth in BVPS have been pretty low over the last year.  Hopefully they will find some good use for the capital...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought Jefferies is actually doing pretty well. $200M before tax is pretty good results in this environment.

 

The beef business is really dragging down results. I wish there's more disclosure on how they're planning to turn National Beef around..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They seem to be getting active. They own about a half billion of Harbinger. KCG was not mentioned in the slides, probably cause it's held by Jefferies Group subsidiary but they own about 20% of that. I see at least 1 billion of new investments. Expect Lake Charles announcement this year regarding commencement of construction and final funding as per http://lakecharlescleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/LCCE-Timeline.jpg . I estimate this project is worth at least 2-3 billion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They show HomeFed with a value of $226 million.  They own 9.4 million shares, so that is about $24/share.  HOFD is currently at $51/sh making their stake worth more like $479 million, unless I'm missing something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's tucked away in Jefferies trading assets - "We have elected the fair value option for Jefferies investment in Knight Capital Group, Inc., acquired by Jefferies during 2012.  On July 1, 2013, Knight Capital completed its previously announced merger with GETCO Holding Company, LLC; as a result KCG Holdings, Inc. became the new public parent of both entities.  Although no longer subject to the equity method of accounting, KCG Holdings continues to be accounted for at fair value consistent with the election made for all of Jefferies trading assets.  The change in the fair value of this investment was $(1.0) million for the three months ended March 31, 2014."

 

Jefferies owns 22.5m shares or 19.6% of KCG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I realize the Juneau Energy is tiny, but kind of neat they are working with Juneau.  I use to follow/own Contango and Juneau was Ken Peak's partner in that company.

----------------

 

Just noticed at least one “insider “ is confident that Leucadia is a good value at current prices.

 

Francisco Borges  ( Director) bought 10,000 shares at $25.58 totaling $ 255,777  today  (May 14 , 2014) .

 

greenwave

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I realize the Juneau Energy is tiny, but kind of neat they are working with Juneau.  I use to follow/own Contango and Juneau was Ken Peak's partner in that company.

----------------

 

Just noticed at least one “insider “ is confident that Leucadia is a good value at current prices.

 

Francisco Borges  ( Director) bought 10,000 shares at $25.58 totaling $ 255,777  today  (May 14 , 2014) .

 

greenwave

 

Good catch! Thanks for posting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some recent things:

 

LUK tried to buy Depfa

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/13/idUSWEB00N5N20140513

 

Jana Partners put 2.5% of their portfolio in LUK, 7.7MM shares, which makes them the 2nd largest non-indexer shareholder. Haven't really seen any commentary in press  and I don't think Jana has said anything publicly.

 

http://whalewisdom.com/stock/luk

 

Don't think activism is necessary here, but I wouldn't mind them getting bigger in LUK and ruffling some feathers (HOFD spin/share swap, Berkadia monetization, something to highlight the energy assets/optionality there). But I think Rosenstein is probably  just in this as an OPMI.

 

Anyways, LUK looks cheap here.

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC, the joint venture of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) and Leucadia National Corp. (LUK), added $2 billion to its loan-servicing portfolio with the purchase of Phoenix-based Keystone Commercial Capital.

 

Keystone, with mortgage-banking offices in Boston and San Diego as well as Phoenix, will continue to be overseen by co-founder and managing partner Charlie Williams, Berkadia said today in a statement. Berkadia picks up 16 employees with the purchase.

 

“Berkadia has invested significant time in developing relationships -- particularly with life-insurance companies -- to expand our financing capabilities,” Ernie Katai, head of production, said in the statement. “This demonstrates our continued commitment to that expansion.”

 

Berkadia, the third-largest U.S. commercial and multifamily mortgage servicer, had a portfolio of more than $229 billion as of March 31, according to the statement. Servicers collect payments from borrowers and pass them on to mortgage lenders or investors, minus fees. They can also handle foreclosures when borrowers don’t pay.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-28/berkadia-boosts-loan-servicing-by-2-billion-with-deal.html

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

from Tweedy's last AR:

 

We also pared back our positions in Google, Henkel, Leucadia, Unifirst, Wal-Mart, and Sysco, all of which were trading at, or getting nearer to, estimated intrinsic value.

 

I don´t really get that...LUK went as high as 32 around the merger, now they are around 25.60 and I for one am pretty satisfied with what they have been doing in the mean time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...