Guest ajc Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Comp for Oregon LNG Sabine Pass has 6 trains and a 2.2B cf/day export license. Leucadia has a license for 1.25B cf/day. From Cheniere's investor presentation, the first 4 trains at Sabine (1.47B cf/day) will result in... (http://desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/June%202013%20Corporate%20Presentation.pdf) Total annual revenues of $2.55 billion Total annual expenses of $765 million Annual EBITDA of $1.79 billion Annual debt service of $505 million Distributable annual cash flows to parent company of $1.285 billion If you add a bit for the pipeline (50% of which is likely worth $20 million per year - see Cheniere's CTPL in the presentation) and knock off 15% percent because Oregon is that much smaller, then you're left with: Annual cash flows distributable to Leucadia of around $1.1 billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Richard Handler takes ice bucket ALS challenge. There is a video of him taking the challenge. http://thetally.efinancialnews.com/2014/08/hold-bankers-ice-bucket-challenge/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Richard Handler takes ice bucket ALS challenge. There is a video of him taking the challenge. http://thetally.efinancialnews.com/2014/08/hold-bankers-ice-bucket-challenge/ Wow, he got out of the tub pretty quick! Nice city views from his washroom. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 27, 2014 Author Share Posted August 27, 2014 Wow, he got out of the tub pretty quick! DONE :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/119312514329715?cik=96223 New LUK presentation I'm too young to have invested in the old LUK that some people here are nostalgic for but I I really like what they are doing now and think the stock is a nice risk/reward w/ lots of optionality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Interesting how they've labeled all those operating companies that LUK holds as merchant banking. I don't like that characterization of it, despite maybe it's accuracy. Cummings & Steinberg had always just had a mish-mash of companies they bought cheap and then sold dear or liquidated. To put it under the merchant banking moniker sounds like LUK will now be measured as a financial services company kind of like Lazard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/119312514329715?cik=96223 New LUK presentation Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Anyone else notice that Homefed trades at a $494mm valuation for its 64% stake but is only carried on the books at $227mm? Are there other examples such as this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wabash02 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Anyone else notice that Homefed trades at a $494mm valuation for its 64% stake but is only carried on the books at $227mm? Are there other examples such as this? Berkadia has roughly a 150mm pretax income run rate, yet is carried for 203mm. Vitesse Energy is very interesting. Bob Gerrity souded very legit and mentioned that payback periods for the wells are under one year! He also said of the most recent deal, they were not the high bid but with LUK backing they won it because they could close the deal in a month. They own the wells and let other operators run it, the business model seems amazing. Would not be surprised to see the value of that much higher in 1-3 yrs. Linkem is in a unique position and if what the CEO said is anywhere close to correct they are worth quite a bit more than book value. (Basically Italy has a large legacy copper infrastructure wholly owned by Telecom Italia, and Linkem is both faster and cheaper--gets great customer reviews and good subscriber growth.) Obviously the big horse in the stable is Jefferies and they have an investor day Oct 9th, but I came away from the call quite bullish and happy with my position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 thoughts on book value in relation to IV for various parts of LUK Berkadia is undervalued on the balance sheet, marked at 2.6X annualized 1H2014 Pretax earnings, a mortgage banker's earnings are incredibly lumpy, but Walker Dunlop is a good comp and trades at much higher multiples. Berkadia 50% interest book value: $203MM Berkadia Pre-tax earnings(2011-2013): $35MM $105MM $135MM, $79MM YTD "Our share of pre-tax earnings for the first half of the year was $38.4 million and we received $19.4 million in distributions" Garcadia is undervalued on the balance sheet Garcadia book value: $140MM , approximately 65% interest in company + land and real estate rented to dealerships, the ownership structure isn't as clean here since LUK owns a varying % of dealerships but I don't think it's worth $140MM given they've received $80MM of distributions over the past 3 years and their ROE is in 20's and 30's Consolidated (not just LUK's share) revenue 2011-2013: $790MM, $1.1B, $1.5B Consolidated (not just LUK's share) pretax income 2011-2013: $22MM, $37MM, $47MM Distributions to LUK: $16MM, $30MM, $40MM Pre-tax ROE on LUK's interest: 26%, 33%, 32% National Beef may be overvalued at $775MM, tough to tell if the challenges there are just cyclical, they had a good yer or two where they generated like 15% of LUK's basis in cash and then the business just went to shit. The energy projects have no book value, so that's big source of potential growth and optionality The way I look at LUK is I pay $9.3B I get $2.2B of liquid assets; (net cash, asset management business<--am i the only one that loves the Folger Hill seed??? big scalable multi-manager HF's are fee machines , harbinger + homefed stock at market) I get the next $3.5B or so of pre tax earnings tax free So the remaining $7.1B grows with JEF pre-tax income of 5 or 6 hundo (7-8.5% of the ex-liquid assets book) and with earnings from all the other crap, plus the optionality from stuff like Energy marked at 0) It's definitely not a 50 cent dollar, but perhaps a growing 75 or 80 cent one, with ample liquidity, a bigass tax asset and lots of connections for possibly lucrative investments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 "National Beef may be overvalued at $775MM," The CEO was asked the normal net profit margin over the cycle and he said 2.5-4%. That implies around $120mm at 3% on 4 billion in revenues or 15% return on investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiltacular Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 thoughts on book value in relation to IV for various parts of LUK Berkadia is undervalued on the balance sheet, marked at 2.6X annualized 1H2014 Pretax earnings, a mortgage banker's earnings are incredibly lumpy, but Walker Dunlop is a good comp and trades at much higher multiples. Berkadia 50% interest book value: $203MM Berkadia Pre-tax earnings(2011-2013): $35MM $105MM $135MM, $79MM YTD "Our share of pre-tax earnings for the first half of the year was $38.4 million and we received $19.4 million in distributions" Garcadia is undervalued on the balance sheet Garcadia book value: $140MM , approximately 65% interest in company + land and real estate rented to dealerships, the ownership structure isn't as clean here since LUK owns a varying % of dealerships but I don't think it's worth $140MM given they've received $80MM of distributions over the past 3 years and their ROE is in 20's and 30's Consolidated (not just LUK's share) revenue 2011-2013: $790MM, $1.1B, $1.5B Consolidated (not just LUK's share) pretax income 2011-2013: $22MM, $37MM, $47MM Distributions to LUK: $16MM, $30MM, $40MM Pre-tax ROE on LUK's interest: 26%, 33%, 32% National Beef may be overvalued at $775MM, tough to tell if the challenges there are just cyclical, they had a good yer or two where they generated like 15% of LUK's basis in cash and then the business just went to shit. The energy projects have no book value, so that's big source of potential growth and optionality The way I look at LUK is I pay $9.3B I get $2.2B of liquid assets; (net cash, asset management business<--am i the only one that loves the Folger Hill seed??? big scalable multi-manager HF's are fee machines , harbinger + homefed stock at market) I get the next $3.5B or so of pre tax earnings tax free So the remaining $7.1B grows with JEF pre-tax income of 5 or 6 hundo (7-8.5% of the ex-liquid assets book) and with earnings from all the other crap, plus the optionality from stuff like Energy marked at 0) It's definitely not a 50 cent dollar, but perhaps a growing 75 or 80 cent one, with ample liquidity, a bigass tax asset and lots of connections for possibly lucrative investments. I think this is a good analysis, though I do share some of rogermunibond's concerns (though perhaps that's what the market thinks too and why this might be cheapish). If it was a 50% dollar, I'd be back to a very large position. I did like that the new team immediately shut Sangart. This company is priced just wrong...not quite cheap enough given the unproven team (aside from their Jefferies experience) but just cheap enough to possibly turn out to be a superb investment from these prices. If they can execute on the energy deal in Louisiana that Cummings and Steinberg referenced in their final letter, that would be nice. Excerpt from their last letter, 2012: A Major Future Opportunity After a 10-year effort led by the indomitable and indefatigable Tom Mara, our Louisiana gasification project is now poised to move into the construction phase. The gasification facility located in Lake Charles, Louisiana has major off-take agreements in place as well as all necessary permits. It recently entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with SKE&C USA, Inc., SK Engineering & Construction Co. Ltd. and Technip USA Inc. pursuant to which they will provide an industry standard lump sum turnkey construction contract. Funding for this project will be covered in part by $1.561 billion of tax exempt bonds, a $230 million federal grant for carbon capture and sequestration, and a $128 million federal investment tax credit. The project will require equity of $400 to $600 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhoIsWarren Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I came away from the call quite bullish and happy with my position. Darn it -- I missed the call. Anyone know where I can get a transcript? Bloomberg doesn't have it.....and as for the LUK website, sheesh! ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxthetrade Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I came away from the call quite bullish and happy with my position. Darn it -- I missed the call. Anyone know where I can get a transcript? Bloomberg doesn't have it.....and as for the LUK website, sheesh! ::) Unfortunately there is no replay or transcript available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Someone post a few notes on Yahoo. Nothing too helpful imo. Thought this was interesting: "Very interesting -- either Handler or Friedman (or someone) mentioned that they expect to convert the $1.3 billion DTA into cash within the next 3-5 years. If so, that would be astonishing income generation during that period." And I liked his note on asset managers: "They are expanding the asset management business by investing in managers (and management companies), rather than doing M&A deals that would create goodwill -- they believe everything is highly or fairly valued. " I.E. - if they were to get out and buy a GP/asset manager business they would have to pay more than the way they are currently structuring their deals. http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=19ae4497-92fa-3786-aa7d-551fc38c08ed&tid=1409783681041-ab10dd5f-d556-41c6-af9f-496945789870&tls=la%2Cd%2C0%2C3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhoIsWarren Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Someone post a few notes on Yahoo. Nothing too helpful imo. Thought this was interesting: "Very interesting -- either Handler or Friedman (or someone) mentioned that they expect to convert the $1.3 billion DTA into cash within the next 3-5 years. If so, that would be astonishing income generation during that period." Jay, thanks for highlighting the Yahoo notes. The DTA angle is interesting. However, the poster's conclusion about income generation in the next 3-5 years isn't necessarily true, as DTA's can be used up through capital gains too.... But let's work through the numbers: JEF did $500m in the last 12 months. From the recent investor presentation, Berkadia, National Beef, Garcadia, Conwed and Idaho Timber are currently doing around $200m pre-tax. (A quick calculation, hope I haven't added up the numbers incorrectly). But that's with National Beef doing c.$60m a year (was $27m in H1:14), versus the $324m it did in 2011. So if NB can get back to 2011 levels and everything else stays where it is, then yes, you can think about c.$1bn of pre-tax for LUK group. That would use up c.$350m a year in DTAs (assuming 35% tax rate), within the 3-5 year range given by management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2014/09/12/reimagining-union-station-2/ Akridge/LUK Union Station stake doesn't even get mentioned by Handler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwy000 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Stopped development on Lake Charles project. That's a ton of money down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Stopped development on Lake Charles project. That's a ton of money down the drain. thankfully marked at or close to 0, but disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Thanks for the update. I expected something to come about of this project especially with all the energy activity in the US. Hopefully they can still monetize their regulatory work down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Some quotes from Mr. G. (Sep 2014) "One example is in how corporations evaluate the probable rate of return on a specific facility and then wonder what the variance on that return might be. That variance is really what the executive committees of corporation are really interested in, Greenspan said, and if a project is supposed to have a 30% yield, but there is a 10% chance of it returning a -10% yield, then the project will be dead in the water." In this kind of environment, corporate tax rates become impossible to estimate, and that results in a serious curtailment of expenditures. When people don’t have a clue what the tax rate will be 20 or 30 years from now, and they have projected income from those years, then it drives up the effective cost of current projects. "“What we see is that construction is dead in the water,” Greenspan said today at an insurance conference hosted by KPMG in New York. That contrasts with other recoveries since World War II, as “every single one of them was led by construction or longer-lived assets,” he said." "“What they are saying is ‘we are so uncertain about the distant future that we are not going to invest,’” Greenspan said. "“The reason inflation is dead in the water now and will be for the immediate foreseeable future is that we are operating at less than full capacity in the world,” Greenspan said today." I think LUK is dead in the water vis-a-vis large construction projects for a while. PS. An excellent write-up on Leucadia and Leucadia Investor Day: http://boards.fool.com/annotated-investor-day-notes-31427733.aspx?sort=postdate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junto Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 LUK has certainly been taken to the cleaners as of late. Lower 52 week lows each of the past three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainman Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 LUK has certainly been taken to the cleaners as of late. Lower 52 week lows each of the past three days. Another one today! buying opportunity/put options selling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Stock seemshave taken it in the chin when 30-year Treasury bonds started rallying in September. Any particular reason for this so I don't have to spend the time digging up the reason for the correlation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/119312514329715?cik=96223 New LUK presentation you can find the components of LUK's value here...not much to do with ze long bond; i'd say any relationship is nearly meaningless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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