adesigar Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Fattest-Ever U.S. Cattle Herd Signals End to Record Beef Prices http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-27/fattest-ever-u-s-cattle-herd-signals-end-to-record-beef-prices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 anyone have the oppenheimer report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 So, is anyone starting to get interested in buying Leucadia? Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 anyone have the oppenheimer report? Here you go. Please see attached. Oppenheimer.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Their spreadsheet shows a forecast of a 12 cent increase in tangible book value by year end 2016. I think this report exemplifies , in a self-referential sort of way, the problem with investment banks. Jefferies publishes the same sort of reports. I'm not entirely sure what the value of this business is - all the firms pretty much seem to publish the same cookie cutter analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 anyone have the oppenheimer report? Here you go. Please see attached. Thanks! Also, is his valuation of Berkadia off? The company earned $85 million in cash in H1 2015, or $170 million annualized but he's valuing it at $800 million? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Yes! Just what we need - creativity and a helpful hand to CLO managers: http://nypost.com/2015/11/28/jefferies-peddles-clever-way-to-unload-risky-debt/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 anyone have the oppenheimer report? Here you go. Please see attached. Thanks! Also, is his valuation of Berkadia off? The company earned $85 million in cash in H1 2015, or $170 million annualized but he's valuing it at $800 million? He estimates the value of LUK's 50% interest in Berkadia at $397M (2X tangible book), but any reasonable valuation on a net income basis is going to value LUK's interest much higher. I feel $800M+ is more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricSchleien Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Agreed with Foreign Tuffett on that. Been upping my stake in LUK the past few weeks. I think the business is worth substantially more than the current market price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Btw, does anyone else think the 6 5/8% of 2043 @ $99 are cheap? 390 or so over the 30 yr seems like decent compensation for the credit risks of this business. Compare the financials heavy i-shares preferred stock index at 5.6% and vanguard long term investment grade @ 3.76% and the vanguard long term corporate bond @ 4.2%. I know some of you may scoff at this, but for the right buyer (like a retiree) this seems like decent relative value. at the risk of being laughed out the room for accepting a low rate of return, I have recently purchased some more of these at 89 3/4% of par for a YTM of 7.5% for both my and my parents account (in an IRA for them). these are 440 over the 30 year and are well collateralized by $7.6B or so of tangible equity (half of which is NOT Jefferies). There is about $1B of holdco debt. So you are writing insurance on the bottom $1B of of Jefferies and other LUK equity and getting paid a reasonable equity rate of return to do so ( I don't believe the S&P or Russell will return anywhere close to 7.5% at current valuations over the next say 5-10 years). A further back up in rates only increases your rate of re-investment (<---this is a cop-out way to dismiss the duration risk). I also own LUK stock, which I think is very cheap given the changes in the assets that are occurring, but the bonds are obviously a different set of risks/reward. $83.5, 8.12%, 515 spread to the 30 year...I am hoovering these in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 anyone have the oppenheimer report? Here you go. Please see attached. Thanks! Also, is his valuation of Berkadia off? The company earned $85 million in cash in H1 2015, or $170 million annualized but he's valuing it at $800 million? He estimates the value of LUK's 50% interest in Berkadia at $397M (2X tangible book), but any reasonable valuation on a net income basis is going to value LUK's interest much higher. I feel $800M+ is more reasonable. Yeah, that's what I'm saying too. $800 million for 100% seems way too low. I think $800 million for 50% seems more reasonable.. Wasn't sure if I missed anything since these analysts are usually pretty sharp with their numbers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 LUK keeps falling and is under $17.00 per share now. Definitely seems like a buying opportunity for investors with a long term orientation. One thought is that the market seems to value LUK almost exclusively on the near term outlook for Jefferies, but obviously LUK is much more than that. One part of the "story" here in my mind is that cash flow generation will improve materially moving forward as multiple businesses that aren't currently contributing (National Beef, Leucadia Asset Management, Golden Queen) begin to generate free cash flow. A sale of Linkem (which I feel is almost inevitable even as the timing is highly uncertain) and the continued payoff of the FXCM loan should also help. One note is that the Oregon LNG project isn't mentioned at all in the investor day presentation. It seems certain that development wil be shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Today seems to mark 10 & 20 years of major underperformance vs the S&P500. LUK 1995 - 2015 - 88% S&P 1995 - 2015 - 228% I agree past performance shouldn't be considered but I keep being reminded of Buffett's maxim in the Owner's Manual that "noble intentions" should be checked against a 5 year rolling period of share price performance. Not sure what to make of LUK at this point. Is it their energy/commodity focus inside - and outside of Jefferies that is the cause of these issues? Or the blackbox nature of investment banking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meiroy Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 I attended the Leucadia shareholder meeting today. On the overall Leucadia portfolio: Steinberg: "Portfolio of companies at Leucadia is a bet on inflation...If you don't agree with outlook, you should sell your shares." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 FXCM to maybe rengotiate loan with LUK - https://leaprate.com/2015/12/is-fxcm-about-to-restructure-its-deal-with-leucadia/ Perhaps a simpler structure like % equity ownership in FXCM would do wonders for the currently very low stock price since the volatile arrangement they have currently is really complicated. Much easier I think to just have a loan and maybe preferred convertibles or just say own 50% of FXCM as a direct equity investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Jefferies Trading Revenue Falls 36% as Fixed Income Tumbles http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/jefferies-trading-revenue-falls-36-as-fixed-income-tumbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Anyone have thoughts on potential renegotiation of the deal with FXCM? FXCM put out odd 8-k saying they are discussing possible talks with LUK about loan deal (vague) and that mgmt may buy shares. Today, the filed form 4, tops 3 people bought shares, around 350k dollar amount. I guess I am just curious if why LUK would re-do the deal in a way that benefits the stub-equity of FXCM. Only shot in the dark is that it is a way to keep insiders working at the company since they still own a large chunk of the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I know those guys needed the money that day, but I imagine I would feel pretty unhappy with the terms of the deal if I were them. Maybe this will be an attempt to get incentives aligned back for them again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I am LUK shareholder and I personally think that it might not be a bad thing for LUK to renegotiate. The FXCM deal was really nice for LUK. It was probably so extreme because it was done on very short notice. If it creates the impression that LUK took everything then they might miss out on future deals. They need a nice guy image, a savior, someone people want to go to and not someone to avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I am LUK shareholder and I personally think that it might not be a bad thing for LUK to renegotiate. The FXCM deal was really nice for LUK. It was probably so extreme because it was done on very short notice. If it creates the impression that LUK took everything then they might miss out on future deals. They need a nice guy image, a savior, someone people want to go to and not someone to avoid. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ratiman Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Management said that fixed income has been "a solid to excellent business . . . in prior years." That's a fascinating statement. Which prior years? I can't say whether JEF should stay in the trading business, but the fact that management is touting "solid" results from years and years ago tells you something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Management said that fixed income has been "a solid to excellent business . . . in prior years." That's a fascinating statement. Which prior years? I can't say whether JEF should stay in the trading business, but the fact that management is touting "solid" results from years and years ago tells you something. What? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 What incentive does LUK have to renegotiate the FXCM loan / participation rights terms? The only incentive is reduced mark to market volatility each quarter due to the way they treat the derivative rights. But is that temporary gain or loss worth giving up the fact that they effectively own 90% of the company? The easiest solution is just buy out the whole thing - 100% and consolidate it and remove the public shares which is a circus. Or keep some sort of dividend paying preferred with a rights kicker for say 50% of the company. I just can't see why they'd loosen the noose so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 What incentive does LUK have to renegotiate the FXCM loan / participation rights terms? The only incentive is reduced mark to market volatility each quarter due to the way they treat the derivative rights. But is that temporary gain or loss worth giving up the fact that they effectively own 90% of the company? The easiest solution is just buy out the whole thing - 100% and consolidate it and remove the public shares which is a circus. Or keep some sort of dividend paying preferred with a rights kicker for say 50% of the company. I just can't see why they'd loosen the noose so to speak. Depends on key man risk. If there are key guys who have shares and can see all their hard work accruing to Leucadia, they might either leave or just not work hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Just an article link... The Stock I Like Best: Leucadia National Corp. (LUK): Valuation Analysis http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/12/the-stock-i-like-best-leucadia-national-corp-luk/ As of this posting I have no position in Leucadia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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