JEF - Jefferies Group

[mcliu]

The Leucadia guys are incredible. Who would have thought 3.3x MoC (+$2.2B gains) on a beef processor in under 8 years?

If only Handler & team had this kind of insight, this stock will trade way above 1x BV lol.

[petec]

The Leucadia guys are incredible. Who would have thought 3.3x MoC (+$2.2B gains) on a beef processor in under 8 years?

If only Handler & team had this kind of insight, this stock will trade way above 1x BV lol.

 

Agreed! The disappointment here isn't the performance of the investment bank, which was relatively predictable. It's the failure to redeploy the merchant bank proceeds into anything interesting.

[villainx]

The Leucadia guys are incredible. Who would have thought 3.3x MoC (+$2.2B gains) on a beef processor in under 8 years?

If only Handler & team had this kind of insight, this stock will trade way above 1x BV lol.

 

Agreed! The disappointment here isn't the performance of the investment bank, which was relatively predictable. It's the failure to redeploy the merchant bank proceeds into anything interesting.

 

Wondering if this is institutional failure or new leadership overriding institutional judgment?  It is what it is now, but thinking how it translate to BRK, DHR or Constellation or other situations where new leadership meets supposedly thoughtful management teams.

 

 

 

[Sullivcd]

Anyone have a guess as to what earnings will be over the next couple of years? Can they get to $3 a share excluding asset sales?

[petec]

Anyone have a guess as to what earnings will be over the next couple of years? Can they get to $3 a share excluding asset sales?

 

Doubt it. The chunk of equity/NAV that is in the merchant portfolio won't generate earnings unless assets are sold. So you're asking $4.5bn of investment bank equity to earn $900m or a 20% roe which is unlikely. But it might do 10-12% now it's got Berkadia in it, which justifies valuing it at 1xbv when you do your SOTP.

[Sullivcd]

Thanks petec, looks pretty cheap at around $20 a share.

[thepupil]

As of the beginning of 2019 (from their "Merchant Banking Fair Value Perspective" which used November 2018 marks), JEF had (in their view) an estimated $4.1 billion of value in Merchant Banking.

 

http://ir.jefferies.com/Cache/1001247507.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1001247507&iid=103464

 

Since then

1) they took over HomeFed at above that mark. this was about 12% of the fair value

2) they distributed Spectrum (which is at $60/share versus $50 on November 2018). this was 9% of fair value.

3) they wrote down a lot of We Work, this was about 6% of fair value

4) they monetized National Beef for about 30% more than the valuation, this was 17% of fair value

 

the mark up on National Beef basically offsets the write down on We. So more or less in 11 or so months, there's been some kind of significant transaction on 44% of the Merchant banking portfolio and they've been confirmatory to JEF's views of the value of the portfolio (with some plusses and minuses). HomeFed of course was bought buy JEF, but considering the numerous appraisal rights cases, I don't think there's a super strong case that JEF overpaid for HomeFed.

 

And to be clear that $4.1 billion of value was 1.3x book value of the merchant portfolio (non-Jefferies). So JEF is proving out its own view of its assets worth which is 30% higher than book. Every time JEF sells something for the price they say its worth in that chart, they are not proving their worth the current stock price. they are proving that a large portion of book is worth more than book, which is quite powerful when the stock is at 0.6x book.

 

Proceeds have more or less gone to shareholders via spins/buybacks/divs.

 

I'm actually surprised this hasn't re-rated more strongly today. I assume its because no one likes Linkem, actual Jefferies, oil and gas, etc.

 

It's frustrating, but at the same time, to have the stock here after such a significant de-risking event, is an opportunity to add for those not already full (I'm already full).

 

 

[Gregmal]

As of the beginning of 2019 (from their "Merchant Banking Fair Value Perspective" which used November 2018 marks), JEF had (in their view) an estimated $4.1 billion of value in Merchant Banking.

 

http://ir.jefferies.com/Cache/1001247507.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1001247507&iid=103464

 

Since then

1) they took over HomeFed at above that mark. this was about 12% of the fair value

2) they distributed Spectrum (which is at $60/share versus $50 on November 2018). this was 9% of fair value.

3) they wrote down a lot of We Work, this was about 6% of fair value

4) they monetized National Beef for about 30% more than the valuation, this was 17% of fair value

 

the mark up on National Beef basically offsets the write down on We. So more or less in 11 or so months, there's been some kind of significant transaction on 44% of the Merchant banking portfolio and they've been confirmatory to JEF's views of the value of the portfolio (with some plusses and minuses). HomeFed of course was bought buy JEF, but considering the numerous appraisal rights cases, I don't think there's a super strong case that JEF overpaid for HomeFed.

 

And to be clear that $4.1 billion of value was 1.3x book value of the merchant portfolio (non-Jefferies). So JEF is proving out its own view of its assets worth which is 30% higher than book. Every time JEF sells something for the price they say its worth in that chart, they are not proving their worth the current stock price. they are proving that a large portion of book is worth more than book, which is quite powerful when the stock is at 0.6x book.

 

Proceeds have more or less gone to shareholders via spins/buybacks/divs.

 

I'm actually surprised this hasn't re-rated more strongly today. I assume its because no one likes Linkem, actual Jefferies, oil and gas, etc.

 

It's frustrating, but at the same time, to have the stock here after such a significant de-risking event, is an opportunity to add for those not already full (I'm already full).

 

I agree with this.

 

It's funny because over the weekend I was doing a lot of work on thematic replacement for some of my BX and to a lesser extent BAM position due to the euphoric runs both have had this year. My goal was to find something that fit the mold with what one was buying with regard to BX/BAM maybe a year or two ago... I kind of settled on LUK/JEF. Then there was this morning's announcement and I was like "fuck..." but for some reason the market didn't really react, so now I'm happy. Basically JEF on 11/15 = JEF +2% on 11/18 despite what is IMO a major event on many levels. This should have some legs for the next few months IMO.

[petec]

I just read the investor day transcript last night. Obviously it's a marketing document, so take it with a pinch of salt, but:

 

1) they seem highly confident that the investment bank is under-earning. This is partly the familiar story of lots of new hires who aren't fully productive yet, but it's also partly being skewed towards areas energy and mid-market that have seen significant slowdowns recently.

 

2) there seemed to be a lot more of a sense that the merchant bank portfolio is mature/ing and will largely be monetised over the next 2-3 years. They have $1.3bn of holdco cash after selling NB. Homefed, Vitesse/JTEX, and Linkem are worth $3bn today (using the spectrum value only for Linkem) and should be worth more in time. Then there's $1.2bn in other public and private investments. That's $5.5bn and rising, vs a market cap of $6bn, and at the current price a lot of that would go to buybacks. You're almost getting legacy JEF (including Jefferies Finance), LAM (which is about to start releasing capital), and Berkadia (which Handler said years ago he wouldn't sell for $1bn) for free.

 

Three other snippets speak to the cash flows to come (and potentially rising ROE):

- Vitesse/JTEX can now fund its own capex and will start distributing.

- LAM's got to the point where third party capital can replace JEF's capital, which can be withdrawn, raising the ROE.

- Some of the merchant bank businesses (I'm guessing Homefed, Vitesse/JTEX, and Linkem) could become part of LAM, selling assets to third parties and managing them for a fee at a high ROE.

[scorpioncapital]

This is a relatively incompetent management and it shows. Note, this is not Leucadia anymore. I would argue that what is holding back is both entrenched management, poor compensation structure for shareholders and a poison pill. The market fears that whatever they touch next is going to immediately sink in a symphony of failure. It seems they are a 2nd rate merchant investment bank with some opportunities but seldom the best ones. Handler sure says 'uh' alot in the transcript. Maybe somebody should teach him that in public speaking you try to not say uh so much. Sloppy thinking leads to sloppy results. Also his answers are clueless. He understands nothing about growth or value or anything else. It's scary people like this are given the keys to the car so to speak.

 

However, I will say that if it goes up it will be for one reason only and that is because they are a financial stock leveraged to higher interest rates completely independent of what management does. On the other hand many financial stocks would do the same thing. It might pop 10 or 20% but those are one time gains. One could even imagine 2 arbitrage situations a year yielding a similar outcome with perhaps more control over the situation.

[thepupil]

This is a relatively incompetent management and it shows. Note, this is not Leucadia anymore. I would argue that what is holding back is both entrenched management, poor compensation structure for shareholders and a poison pill. The market fears that whatever they touch next is going to immediately sink in a symphony of failure. It seems they are a 2nd rate merchant investment bank with some opportunities but seldom the best ones. Handler sure says 'uh' alot in the transcript. Maybe somebody should teach him that in public speaking you try to not say uh so much. Sloppy thinking leads to sloppy results. Also his answers are clueless. He understands nothing about growth or value or anything else. It's scary people like this are given the keys to the car so to speak.

 

However, I will say that if it goes up it will be for one reason only and that is because they are a financial stock leveraged to higher interest rates completely independent of what management does. On the other hand many financial stocks would do the same thing. It might pop 10 or 20% but those are one time gains. One could even imagine 2 arbitrage situations a year yielding a similar outcome with perhaps more control over the situation.

 

 

scorpion, do you have a value where you'd be a buyer? Do you have a view of what JEF is worth? Which subsidiaries do you think are worth more or less than tangible/book value? What price/book do you think is appropriate for JEF. If the merchant bank traded separately, what would you pay? If the investment bank traded separately what would you pay?

 

I ask all of these, because you comment on this thread regularly and it's the same "Handler sucks" narrative. I understand your view and understand your reasoning for not investing, but if someone repeated back over and over that "handler is awesome" it would add as little value to the discussion.

 

Since March 2013, when JEF/LUK combined, tangible book value per share has gone from $19.9 to $27 and about $2.4 of dividends have been paid. (subsequent to the $27/number SPB was distributed to shareholders and NAtional Beek will be written up and converted to cash). JEF has not grown in value at a spectacular rate and there have been mistakes, but to call the past 6 years a "symphony of failure" is mistaken. I'd also note a large portion of tangible has been cash or a DTA (which by definition can only go down in value once it's been written up).

 

To say that the only upside in the stock is a 10-20% move up in rates going up does not appear to be based in any kind of fact based analysis. the stock is up 6.5% in the past 2 trading days. Rates haven't materially moved. Imagine that, the stock of a conglomerate at a signficant discount does not have a 1:1 correlation with rates.

 

[petec]

This is a relatively incompetent management and it shows. Note, this is not Leucadia anymore. I would argue that what is holding back is both entrenched management, poor compensation structure for shareholders and a poison pill. The market fears that whatever they touch next is going to immediately sink in a symphony of failure. It seems they are a 2nd rate merchant investment bank with some opportunities but seldom the best ones. Handler sure says 'uh' alot in the transcript. Maybe somebody should teach him that in public speaking you try to not say uh so much. Sloppy thinking leads to sloppy results. Also his answers are clueless. He understands nothing about growth or value or anything else. It's scary people like this are given the keys to the car so to speak.

 

However, I will say that if it goes up it will be for one reason only and that is because they are a financial stock leveraged to higher interest rates completely independent of what management does. On the other hand many financial stocks would do the same thing. It might pop 10 or 20% but those are one time gains. One could even imagine 2 arbitrage situations a year yielding a similar outcome with perhaps more control over the situation.

 

 

scorpion, do you have a value where you'd be a buyer? Do you have a view of what JEF is worth? Which subsidiaries do you think are worth more or less than tangible/book value? What price/book do you think is appropriate for JEF. If the merchant bank traded separately, what would you pay? If the investment bank traded separately what would you pay?

 

I ask all of these, because you comment on this thread regularly and it's the same "Handler sucks" narrative. I understand your view and understand your reasoning for not investing, but if someone repeated back over and over that "handler is awesome" it would add as little value to the discussion.

 

Since March 2013, when JEF/LUK combined, tangible book value per share has gone from $19.9 to $27 and about $2.4 of dividends have been paid. (subsequent to the $27/number SPB was distributed to shareholders and NAtional Beek will be written up and converted to cash). JEF has not grown in value at a spectacular rate and there have been mistakes, but to call the past 6 years a "symphony of failure" is mistaken. I'd also note a large portion of tangible has been cash or a DTA (which by definition can only go down in value once it's been written up).

 

To say that the only upside in the stock is a 10-20% move up in rates going up does not appear to be based in any kind of fact based analysis.

 

Agreed. I'd add that Handler - sloppy and clueless and ignorant of growth and value as he is - managed to compound BVPS at 11% from when he took over as CEO until the merger, despite the inconvenience of the GFC. He also managed to persuade Cummings - nobody's fool - that he was a worthy heir.

[Parsad]

This is a relatively incompetent management and it shows. Note, this is not Leucadia anymore. I would argue that what is holding back is both entrenched management, poor compensation structure for shareholders and a poison pill. The market fears that whatever they touch next is going to immediately sink in a symphony of failure. It seems they are a 2nd rate merchant investment bank with some opportunities but seldom the best ones. Handler sure says 'uh' alot in the transcript. Maybe somebody should teach him that in public speaking you try to not say uh so much. Sloppy thinking leads to sloppy results. Also his answers are clueless. He understands nothing about growth or value or anything else. It's scary people like this are given the keys to the car so to speak.

 

However, I will say that if it goes up it will be for one reason only and that is because they are a financial stock leveraged to higher interest rates completely independent of what management does. On the other hand many financial stocks would do the same thing. It might pop 10 or 20% but those are one time gains. One could even imagine 2 arbitrage situations a year yielding a similar outcome with perhaps more control over the situation.

 

 

scorpion, do you have a value where you'd be a buyer? Do you have a view of what JEF is worth? Which subsidiaries do you think are worth more or less than tangible/book value? What price/book do you think is appropriate for JEF. If the merchant bank traded separately, what would you pay? If the investment bank traded separately what would you pay?

 

I ask all of these, because you comment on this thread regularly and it's the same "Handler sucks" narrative. I understand your view and understand your reasoning for not investing, but if someone repeated back over and over that "handler is awesome" it would add as little value to the discussion.

 

Since March 2013, when JEF/LUK combined, tangible book value per share has gone from $19.9 to $27 and about $2.4 of dividends have been paid. (subsequent to the $27/number SPB was distributed to shareholders and NAtional Beek will be written up and converted to cash). JEF has not grown in value at a spectacular rate and there have been mistakes, but to call the past 6 years a "symphony of failure" is mistaken. I'd also note a large portion of tangible has been cash or a DTA (which by definition can only go down in value once it's been written up).

 

To say that the only upside in the stock is a 10-20% move up in rates going up does not appear to be based in any kind of fact based analysis.

 

Agreed. I'd add that Handler - sloppy and clueless and ignorant of growth and value as he is - managed to compound BVPS at 11% from when he took over as CEO until the merger, despite the inconvenience of the GFC. He also managed to persuade Cummings - nobody's fool - that he was a worthy heir.

 

Problem is that Steinberg & Cummings were distressed asset investors or true value investors.  Handler comes from the investment banking world.  Two very different worlds.  Handler ended up inheriting a merchant bank, when that is not his area of expertise.  So not only did the CEO get lost in all of the shuffle, so did the markets grasp of what Leucadia had become. 

 

Finally, after all of these years, Handler decided to clean up the entire thing and restart with the assets that make sense to him.  He is selling off portions of the merchant bank business, trying to value the remaining assets for analysts and investors, and focus on getting back to what he knows...the investment banking business. 

 

And here we are seeing a lag...Jefferies has picked up many employees to provide better coverage in areas where it wasn't seen as a leader.  It isn't a stagnant mid-tier investment bank...it is slowly becoming a major competitor in the arena...one that Handler built at a 12% annualized pace for 20 years.  Jefferies first few years after the Leucadia merger are no different than what happened to Fairfax during 2000-2007.  A period of simplifying and cleaning up to move to the next stage of growth.  Cheers!

[scorpioncapital]

What is investment? Laying out capital today, efficiently, for risk adjusted quality returns.. as someone I know once said if everyone was an entrepreneur who would drive the taxis and serve our food ? There is nothing wrong with any profession..it depends what your goal is..handler does not seem to get better with time. If your expectations are low even mediocrity will get you a return. I think you will get a return here on Jefferies. But remember discounts to book value are one time gains. Likewise business quality ...higher quality is valued higher all things being equal.

Alot will also depend on what they invest in next. This is a risk. Since they are divesting, divesting is not învesting, it's divesting by definition. Again one time gains. If you believe their next adventures will be somehow more intelligent than in the past ...you have a basis for a position. I think you can make some money here. But I don't know if it is better than the universe of stocks out there.. generally I'm partial to operating businesses..I don't like financial stocks, brokers , banks. That's just me. But real-world business turns me on.

Let's see what happens. I don't think you can go wrong here and in this environment those companies bringing in the rear are going to give you a return just because of reversion to the mean and maybe the tailwind of higher rates. Good luck !

[Dazel]

 

Ian Cumming was the Leucadia wizard...interestingly it took awhile to find out as Steinberg was still around. His record was as good as Mr.Buffett yet they called security on him when he showed up at one of the companies he owned one day because he kept such a low profile. It was a pleasure to have watched him and invested in him. He will not be remembered as one of the greatest investors of all time but he was. Canadian born in Vancouver there is not 10 people in the whole country that know who he was. Just the way he wanted it.

Jeffries is in a tough business...investment banking environment is brutal right now...and the wizard is gone. I believe that National beef was his last deal at Leucadia which made 3x their money. They have not lived up to his standards but how could they this is NOT Ian Cumming’s Leucadia it’s Handlers Jefferries...there appears to be a puff left in this cigar butt as they sell off what remains of Leucadia...Home Fed was also Cumming’s baby. I have purchased this cigar butt...

 

Cheers to Ian Cumming! I am running out of investing mentors.

 

Dazel

 

[Partner24]

 

Ian Cumming was the Leucadia wizard...interestingly it took awhile to find out as Steinberg was still around. His record was as good as Mr.Buffett yet they called security on him when he showed up at one of the companies he owned one day because he kept such a low profile. It was a pleasure to have watched him and invested in him. He will not be remembered as one of the greatest investors of all time but he was. Canadian born in Vancouver there is not 10 people in the whole country that know who he was. Just the way he wanted it.

Jeffries is in a tough business...investment banking environment is brutal right now...and the wizard is gone. I believe that National beef was his last deal at Leucadia which made 3x their money. They have not lived up to his standards but how could they this is NOT Ian Cumming’s Leucadia it’s Handlers Jefferries...there appears to be a puff left in this cigar butt as they sell off what remains of Leucadia...Home Fed was also Cumming’s baby. I have purchased this cigar butt...

 

Cheers to Ian Cumming! I am running out of investing mentors.

 

Dazel

 

Great post!

[Parsad]

 

Ian Cumming was the Leucadia wizard...interestingly it took awhile to find out as Steinberg was still around. His record was as good as Mr.Buffett yet they called security on him when he showed up at one of the companies he owned one day because he kept such a low profile. It was a pleasure to have watched him and invested in him. He will not be remembered as one of the greatest investors of all time but he was. Canadian born in Vancouver there is not 10 people in the whole country that know who he was. Just the way he wanted it.

Jeffries is in a tough business...investment banking environment is brutal right now...and the wizard is gone. I believe that National beef was his last deal at Leucadia which made 3x their money. They have not lived up to his standards but how could they this is NOT Ian Cumming’s Leucadia it’s Handlers Jefferries...there appears to be a puff left in this cigar butt as they sell off what remains of Leucadia...Home Fed was also Cumming’s baby. I have purchased this cigar butt...

 

Cheers to Ian Cumming! I am running out of investing mentors.

 

Dazel

 

Great post!

 

+1!  Cheers!

[thepupil]

a good monetization of Linkem, which generates no earnings and of which I think most shareheolders (including myself) are kind of skeptical of, would be a nice event for JEF and continue the trend of converting myeh assets to cash.

 

that would be about 60% of the merchant banking portfolio monetized/sold over the past 18 months or so.

 

Italian Unicorn Linkem Targets Milan IPO for 5G Expansion

Broadband operator says valuation is more than $1 billion

Company board hasn’t made final decision on Milan listingBy Alberto Brambilla

(Bloomberg) -- Linkem SpA, a wireless broadband operator, may go public this year to develop its 5G technology and expand in services, Chief Executive Officer Davide Rota said in an interview.

“Of all the financial tools, we are considering an IPO as the most probable,” Rota said. “We are working on it seriously. But we have no anxiety.” The discussions are at an embryonic stage and the board has yet to decide, he added. Linkem, a 2001 start-up, is now the fifth-biggest broadband operator in Italy by number of residential clients. Its valuation is more than $1 billion, according to the company, which would qualify it as one of Italy’s rare unicorns. Jefferies Group LLC, Cowen Group Inc.’s Ramius LLC and BlackRock Inc. are its main shareholders.

Revenue grew 22% to 122.5 million euros in 2018, according to a statement. In December, the company announced a deal with Swisscom AG’s Fastweb SpA, the fourth broadband operator in Italy, to deploy their respective fixed wireless access technology networks in small and medium-sized towns by 2023.

“The IPO is an issue that goes hand in hand with the need to push 5G technology investments and enter the world of smart services with third-party companies such as innovative start-ups,” Rota, who is also a founder, said.

The CEO also said:

Company hasn’t decided what Milan stock exchange segment to list on; Rota excludes the AIM market

Excludes a reverse IPO with Go Internet SpA, a provider of Internet services and fiber to the home technology, listed on the AIM

[benhacker]

I hope the valuation is higher, but growth has moderated, so it may be that this is what it's going to be worth now.

 

I think a good move to sell this one if they can get >$1B.

 

Progress coming slowly, but continuously.

[thepupil]

Letter and earnings out, stock up 4%, the IB had a crappy quarter/year, but gave an optimistic outlook. we'll see. as mentioned before a good year for monetizations/capital return with more promised.

 

 

http://ir.jefferies.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/103464/2019ShareholderLetter.pdf

http://ir.jefferies.com/Cache/1500126382.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1500126382&iid=103464

[ukvalueinvestment]

I don't think the release could be read any better and I am a happy holder today. 

[scorpioncapital]

Those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it. I see limitless repetition ahead.

[thepupil]

Which history?

 

the one where they grow TBVPS by mid single digits over like 6 years....

 

Or the one where they return 1/3 of tangible book to shareholders in two years and tangible doesn't decline in absolute terms?

 

During the past two fiscal years, Jefferies has returned to shareholders in excess of $2.4 billion, or 31%

of tangible shareholders’ equity at the beginning of the period. Even after this return of nearly one third

of tangible equity to shareholders, Jefferies ended fiscal 2019 with tangible shareholders’ equity of

$7.7 billion, slightly higher than the $7.6 billion at the beginning of the two fiscal years, and parent

company liquidity of $2.2 billion. Our primary operating subsidiary, Jefferies Group LLC, also ended the

year with record liquidity.

 

I for one think it will be in between those numbers over the long haul, and therefore loved it at 0.6x tangible, like it here at 0.7-0.8x or whatever, and am less excited at 1x and above.

 

I'll be wrong to the downside if JEF reverts to the mean of the awful years of very low TVBPS growth  (2013-17). I'll be wrong to the upside if JEF is a compounder and keeps doing what it's been doing for the past 2 years (2018/2019). Much of the past two years has simply been a realization of actual value which was understated in the years of famine, so I'd argue that to bet on an "in between" scenario is actually just betting on the status quo with a little incremental improvement from having less of TBV in 0% returning assets (cash and tax asset).

 

 

 

[thepupil]

nothing of much value here, but I think it's a good day to trim JEF.

 

+2%, 52 week high, up about 40% from the June 2019 supersize opportunity, re-rated from 0.6--> tangible 0.8x book, lots of recent monetizations of some of the bigger question marks, fundamentals on Vitesse obviously worse with WTI/NG down 15% YTD, buyback is a little less powerful (in my opinion) as you move into the mid $20's, though they did just increase it.

 

Personally going from 10% -->8%

 

 

[thepupil]

sold JEF completely today to triple down on various real estate investments, Berkshire, and Alphabet.

 

JEF has done its job for me over the past 9 months, producing a satisfactory absolute return, relative outperformance, and nice capital return. On various lots I made something like 15-50% and outperformed relevant indices/my other holdings.

 

I believe JEF is cheap, but I think there have been several material negatives that push out JEF catalysts and make it less attractive over these next quarters

 

These include:

 

- A drastic decline in oil and gas and energy related equities (hurts Vitesse)

- A 15% and counting peak to trough drawdown in the italian stock market (could kill/delay Linkem IPO)

- a significant widening in junk credit spreads (hurts Jefferies Finance generally)

- generalized increase in recession risks

 

There are positives: Berkadia could get some juicy refi's, I think momentum is building overall in the narrative of shifting to more profitable assets over time, the buyback / capital returns been great. I could be wrong.

 

I am a relative value guy whose always more than fully invested and always buying risk assets with net savings, so not really a market call, but rather a JEF call. we'll see.