innerscorecard Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 I have purchased additional shares specifically to tender. If the tender offer is somehow oversubscribed (which I don't think will happen), I am perfectly happy keeping the portion of my shares that would not be bought, so I am comfortable putting a lot of my cash to work for merely a few weeks. The opportunity cost during this time is not so great for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 I have purchased additional shares specifically to tender. If the tender offer is somehow oversubscribed (which I don't think will happen), I am perfectly happy keeping the portion of my shares that would not be bought, so I am comfortable putting a lot of my cash to work for merely a few weeks. The opportunity cost during this time is not so great for me. I think it is a good trade! ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
innerscorecard Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 http://seekingalpha.com/article/3259365-biglari-holdings-a-non-cynical-viewpoint-on-the-tender-offer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 http://seekingalpha.com/article/3261345-why-im-long-biglari-holdings-and-would-sell-shake-shack?auth_param=7i5hb:1anvtkm:31fa9bb6cd15c73ae385c103c1a52297&uprof=25 I like Aurelien's articles! :) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 http://seekingalpha.com/article/3261345-why-im-long-biglari-holdings-and-would-sell-shake-shack?auth_param=7i5hb:1anvtkm:31fa9bb6cd15c73ae385c103c1a52297&uprof=25 I like Aurelien's articles! :) Cheers, Gio I appreciate the kind words! On one hand I'd love to see my thesis play out as I predicted. On the other that would make BH a less attractive buy in the future and I don't have additional funds to allocate to it at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I appreciate the kind words! On one hand I'd love to see my thesis play out as I predicted. On the other that would make BH a less attractive buy in the future and I don't have additional funds to allocate to it at the moment. Mmm… I think Biglari can always find new and innovative ways to piss BH shareholders off! Ahahah!!!!... We will see! ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugalchief Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 http://seekingalpha.com/article/3259365-biglari-holdings-a-non-cynical-viewpoint-on-the-tender-offer I really like his point of Sardar's compensation in TLF now being tied up more to BH stock performance. CBRL still holds the majority of TLF's assets, but his performance at BH would be that much more in line to becoming wealthy with BH shareholders. For what it's worth... :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 http://seekingalpha.com/article/3259365-biglari-holdings-a-non-cynical-viewpoint-on-the-tender-offer I really like his point of Sardar's compensation in TLF now being tied up more to BH stock performance. CBRL still holds the majority of TLF's assets, but his performance at BH would be that much more in line to becoming wealthy with BH shareholders. For what it's worth... :o Agree. I bet Sardar really wanted to lock up a bunch of shares now because its likely the company will report good news on the Maxim front in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugalchief Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 SNS in Saudi Arabia & Kuwait City is now open! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBL0303 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Is anyone interested in having a little contest in which we venture a guess here as to how many shares are tendered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Is anyone interested in having a little contest in which we venture a guess here as to how many shares are tendered? Yes. Is there a way to do this 'blind' where people don't know what the other guesses are until they've guessed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuhndan Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'm going to say the full 575,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Is anyone interested in having a little contest in which we venture a guess here as to how many shares are tendered? Put me down for 180,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBL0303 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 My own guess is whatever the arbs get plus about 50,000. Currently, my rough estimate of what arbs have purchased since the announcement is about 103,000 (I get this by taking the average daily volume prior to the announcement and taking the difference between that and the daily volumes in each day since the announcement and taking the aggregate amount of the difference). I'm guessing arbs will end up getting over 150,000, so my best estimate for the total amount of shares tendered just slightly north of 200,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 200,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 SNS in Saudi Arabia & Kuwait City is now open! Thank you for posting! ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I guess a related question is who thinks Gabelli will tender the almost 200k shares they hold. The Forbes interview made it sound to me like he's not planning to tender - what do others expect? I'm assuming every share traded since the announcement is going to an arb. The stock just doesn't have enough volume for anyone big to participate though. If Gabelli tenders his firm's entire position, I think we get near 575k shares tendered. Also depends on the spread and volume these next few days and whether he extends the offer. My own guess is whatever the arbs get plus about 50,000. Currently, my rough estimate of what arbs have purchased since the announcement is about 103,000 (I get this by taking the average daily volume prior to the announcement and taking the difference between that and the daily volumes in each day since the announcement and taking the aggregate amount of the difference). I'm guessing arbs will end up getting over 150,000, so my best estimate for the total amount of shares tendered just slightly north of 200,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBL0303 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Here's the list so far: Kuhndan: 575,000 (full boat) Peridotcapital: 180,000 NBL: 200,000 (a little over 200k) BTS Shine: 200,000 Globalfinancepartners: 575,000 (or close to it, if Gabelli doesn't tender then about 400,000) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Here's the list so far: Kuhndan: 575,000 (full boat) Peridotcapital: 180,000 NBL: 200,000 (a little over 200k) BTS Shine: 200,000 Globalfinancepartners: 575,000 (or close to it, if Gabelli doesn't tender then about 400,000) giofranchi: absolutely no idea! While hoping this stock tank again right after the tender! ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugalchief Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'll say 150,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugalchief Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Dumb question, but IDK the answer(s)... Why not just re-up/enlarge the Trading Plan, but under TLF II, to purchase 575,000 shares? It could've enabled TLF II to buy many shares in the $350-$400 range. Broker commissions? Price volatility (as it did when TLF was purchasing their 62k)? Acquire control quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 First, it would take forever. They were limited under the trading plan to approximately 1800 shares per day (average, some days higher, some days lower). So it would take well over a year to get 575k shares. Second, it would cost more (the tender is by far the cheapest way to get $241m worth of stock) and if he put a similar cap on price (last time was 415), the stock could just sit at 415.01 and he wouldn't get any shares, further slowing the process. Third, there is uncertainty on how long the shares will remain available at a significant discount. Market price of CBRL stock can continue to rise, positive business results can be reported, etc... Dumb question, but IDK the answer(s)... Why not just re-up/enlarge the Trading Plan, but under TLF II, to purchase 575,000 shares? It could've enabled TLF II to buy many shares in the $350-$400 range. Broker commissions? Price volatility (as it did when TLF was purchasing their 62k)? Acquire control quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 First, it would take forever. They were limited under the trading plan to approximately 1800 shares per day (average, some days higher, some days lower). So it would take well over a year to get 575k shares. Second, it would cost more (the tender is by far the cheapest way to get $241m worth of stock) and if he put a similar cap on price (last time was 415), the stock could just sit at 415.01 and he wouldn't get any shares, further slowing the process. Third, there is uncertainty on how long the shares will remain available at a significant discount. Market price of CBRL stock can continue to rise, positive business results can be reported, etc... Dumb question, but IDK the answer(s)... Why not just re-up/enlarge the Trading Plan, but under TLF II, to purchase 575,000 shares? It could've enabled TLF II to buy many shares in the $350-$400 range. Broker commissions? Price volatility (as it did when TLF was purchasing their 62k)? Acquire control quicker? Might there also be a sense of security by shareholders, we could call it the 'Lion Fund Put', that the price will not fall below the $415, or whatever the authorized purchase price is. To your point, the stock doesn't go below the $415 mark by much. On the other hand, this tender offer may create some fear in shareholders that if they don't tender their shares at $420 they may never be able to sell for that price again (whether that's rational thinking, or not, can be debated). That fear might be the impetus for their selling via tender at $420. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 My guess is for 375k shares tendered. I was thinking 400k, but will go lower since we already have another prediction at 400k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Do people on this board think the price of BH will be below or above the price of $420 after this tender offer is past us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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