hillfronter83 Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Do people on this board think the price of BH will be below or above the price of $420 after this tender offer is past us? Now that it's too late to tender your shares, does it really matter to you, unless you have somehow privately negotiated a binary option on the matter? ;D Isn't the last day to tender 7/1/2015? For some reason, IB doesn't allow me to tender my shares although it shows 7/1/15 as deadline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
innerscorecard Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Do people on this board think the price of BH will be below or above the price of $420 after this tender offer is past us? Now that it's too late to tender your shares, does it really matter to you, unless you have somehow privately negotiated a binary option on the matter? ;D Isn't the last day to tender 7/1/2015? For some reason, IB doesn't allow me to tender my shares although it shows 7/1/15 as deadline. Dumb post on my part - done without thinking. Looks like different brokers give different guidelines to customers. And I should not assume that everyone holds their position with a broker, given the large size of many posters' holdings discussed so far in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Do people on this board think the price of BH will be below or above the price of $420 after this tender offer is past us? Imo it will be worth a lot more after the tender offer is past us… Will the price be below or above $420? I have no idea… Though I hope it might trend lower! ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Reg FD filing from BH this morning. Pre-tax operating earnings will be comparable to the same period last year. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93859/000141588915002247/biglari8k_july12015.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gg Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Isn't that an odd filing? Is it possible that by disclosing that, it allows Biglari to shorten his black-out period, so he can potentially buy shares if he didn't get enough in the tender? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 I'm not sure. Others on this board likely have a better idea. I'd guess it's possible he shared the information with someone or some group and was then responsible to release publicly via SEC filing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 You mean 5million spent on proxy contest other than the Insignia and AirT purchases right? Well AIRT is up 22.48% today! Maybe Mr. Bigs will make money on this "investment". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 You mean 5million spent on proxy contest other than the Insignia and AirT purchases right? Well AIRT is up 22.48% today! Maybe Mr. Bigs will make money on this "investment". He should clone Swenson more often! :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Tender offer expires at 11:59 PM tonight. Also, there were two different one million share blocks of CBRL that traded at the close. The volume today was 3.4 million vs the typical 319,000. This 10X jump in volume doesn't feel like a coincidence, but I can't pinpoint the logic as to who traded the two million shares (or $300 million worth) of CBRL and why. Was it JPM or the counterparty to the CBRL related contracts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gg Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 That's a pretty good find...if it's not indicative of the size of the tender, than it at least must mean they have something newsworthy coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 That's a pretty good find...if it's not indicative of the size of the tender, than it at least must mean they have something newsworthy coming up Yeah. If BH/LF sold the $300 million worth of CBRL today, they'd be on the hook to pay taxes on a ~$200 million gain (their cost basis is about $50/share). If assuming a 40% tax rate, it'd be an $80 million tax bill and BH/LF would remain with $220 million in cash. That freeing of $220 million in cash would indicate a nearly full tender, but that is clearly extrapolating quite far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 The CBRL volume was probably related to the S&P Midcap 400 add. Lion Fund already had the cash to fill the entire tender. The Reg fd filing is probably to address a complaint or inquiry by the sec because he is buying from you and he has this material nonpublic information about how the quarter went and you don't. Can't wait to see how many shares were tendered. There could be 1.3 million shares net in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 The CBRL volume was probably related to the S&P Midcap 400 add. Lion Fund already had the cash to fill the entire tender. The Reg fd filing is probably to address a complaint or inquiry by the sec because he is buying from you and he has this material nonpublic information about how the quarter went and you don't. Can't wait to see how many shares were tendered. There could be 1.3 million shares net in a couple days. I was going to mention the same thing regarding the CBRL volume; it has to be related to the move to the Midcap 400. Biglari is not interested in selling CBRL at these prices. The company is worth more than $150, even with their less than ideal current management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Biglari is not interested in selling CBRL at these prices. The company is worth more than $150, even with their less than ideal current management. Thank you! Could you please share your valuation of CBRL with us? Many think it is fully priced right now. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 The Lion Fund II, L.P. Announces Preliminary Results Of Its Tender Offer For Shares Of Common Stock Of Biglari Holdings Inc. San Antonio, TX, July 2, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Lion Fund II, L.P. ("The Lion Fund II") today announced the preliminary results of its tender offer to purchase for cash up to 575,000 shares of the common stock of Biglari Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BH) at a purchase price of $420.00 per share. The tender offer expired at 11:59 p.m., New York City Time, on July 1, 2015. Based on a preliminary count, the total number of shares tendered in the tender offer was 620,679 shares, including shares tendered pursuant to the guaranteed delivery procedure described in the tender offer documents. These preliminary results indicate the tender offer was oversubscribed. Pursuant to the terms of the tender offer The Lion Fund II elected to increase the number of shares accepted for payment by 41,312 or 2% of the outstanding shares of Biglari Holdings Inc. The number of shares that The Lion Fund II will purchase from each tendering shareholder will be prorated so that The Lion Fund II will purchase a total of 616,312 shares. The number of shares of common stock of Biglari Holdings Inc. expected to be purchased by The Lion Fund II is preliminary and subject to final confirmation. The final results of the tender offer will be announced promptly following completion of the confirmation process. Payment for shares of common stock of Biglari Holdings Inc. accepted for purchase by The Lion Fund II will be made promptly in accordance with the terms of the tender. All shares tendered in the tender offer but not accepted for purchase will be promptly returned to tendering shareholders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 The Lion Fund II will purchase a total of 616,312 shares. If finally true, which % of BH is the Lion Fund going to own? Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Do people on this board think the price of BH will be below or above the price of $420 after this tender offer is past us? Looks like the answer could be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Do people on this board think the price of BH will be below or above the price of $420 after this tender offer is past us? Looks like the answer could be over. Damn… With insight I made a mistake selling BH to buy TDG… I was hoping the share would trend lower once the tender was over… It looks like I was dead wrong… After all, when I find something I like, I must sell something else, right? Not many other choices…! I could have sold a more expensive stock though… :( Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Well who knows - there was only a trade or two at 430 pre market open. It could trade anywhere. No premarket bid/ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 I am happily surprised that the tender was oversubscribed. And, I'm somewhat shocked the share price is below $420...but, it makes sense if there were more sellers than the tender allowed. Some of those people are likely selling today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayfinkle Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 So I guess this means that we will get some useful information over the next 6-12 months as we see how management behaves now that they effectively have control of the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 I too am very surprised he got as many shares tendered as he did. As far as the stock price, I don't expect much in the short-term since it's the same company it was yesterday. In fact, if you thought the "Biglari discount" was bad before, one could argue it will be even larger now that he has more control. Based on his past efforts, I guess we will see another reverse stock split and "B" class shares shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 I too am very surprised he got as many shares tendered as he did. As far as the stock price, I don't expect much in the short-term since it's the same company it was yesterday. In fact, if you thought the "Biglari discount" was bad before, one could argue it will be even larger now that he has more control. Based on his past efforts, I guess we will see another reverse stock split and "B" class shares shortly. My guess would be a 10 for 1 reverse split, combined with a stock dividend of B shares. It would allow Biglari to maintain control personally/through the lion find, while having the option to sell BH-B shares to invest in something else if he wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Biglari is not interested in selling CBRL at these prices. The company is worth more than $150, even with their less than ideal current management. Thank you! Could you please share your valuation of CBRL with us? Many think it is fully priced right now. Cheers, Gio I haven't done a deep dive into their financials yet, but when I get a chance I will write something up. My note about Biglari not selling at $150 is more based on the fact that the stock is here even though the company is still not implementing many of the things Biglari has suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Of course I agree with everything Aurelien writes in the attached article. Cheers, GioBH-July52015.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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