Williams406 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I'd be tempted to bid for Portillo's just to defray my family's dining costs. Every week I play the same game in drive-through line: Burger or Italian Beef with sweet peppers? Why choose? So I order both. Traffic to the restaurants I live by are unreal. Gotta be a great business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 When I said managed properly, I meant: 1). Don't change any of the existing operations. 2). Manage their growth into new markets responsibly. I think it would be a much better fit for Markel ventures or Fairfax. +1!!! Can you imagine...Portillo's by Biglari! Cheers! How about Portillo by sanjeev. Maybe corner capital should look at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scudbucket Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Whenever I go back home to Chicago I always go to Portillo's. The one in Niles, IL is always busy, it's unreal. I'm willing to wait, though. And so are about 20 other people behind me. It's a great business and really does have an amazing following. I would love to see MKL buy this, for a fair price, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 When I said managed properly, I meant: 1). Don't change any of the existing operations. 2). Manage their growth into new markets responsibly. I think it would be a much better fit for Markel ventures or Fairfax. +1!!! Can you imagine...Portillo's by Biglari! Cheers! How about Portillo by sanjeev. Maybe corner capital should look at this Could have been one day! ;D But we are far too small today to even take a nibble. Would be ideal for Fairfax, Markel or even Dhandho Holdings! Mohnish knows the brand well as a native Chicagoan, but I would think this is going to sell on the high end and might be a bit too big for Dhandho at the moment as well. Perfect size and quality for Fairfax and Markel with lots of room for growth...they would both start to get a lot more calls from quality private business owners if they got this one! And they would maintain the culture of the company and owner. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Biglari Holdings: Sum Of The Parts Indicates Strong Upside Giobiglari-holdings-sum-of-the-parts-may132014.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
APG12 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 One of the things that his plan does not contain is a catch-up provision. Most hedge funds contain such a condition where the manager only gets paid on the percentage above the hurdle rate. For instance, if the manager has a hurdle rate 6% and earns 12%, they would only get their performance fee on the incremental 6%. In Biglari's case, if he earns anything in excess of 6%, he earns the entire gain. In the example above, he would get the 25% incentive fee on the full 12%. ??? The formula from the holding co. incentive agreement: .25 * (New Book Value - High Water Mark * 1.06) And for the Lion Fund: "The incentive reallocation to Biglari Capital is equal to 25% of the net profits allocated to the limited partners in excess of their applicable hurdle rate." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragu Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 The formula from the holding co. incentive agreement: .25 * (New Book Value - High Water Mark * 1.06) And for the Lion Fund: "The incentive reallocation to Biglari Capital is equal to 25% of the net profits allocated to the limited partners in excess of their applicable hurdle rate." Indeed. That was just plain silly. Although the conclusion is right, the write-up sorely lacks qualitative and quantitative rigour (sorry, Gio!). The unfortunate reality for BH shareholders is that for the right thing to happen at CBRL (Sardar on the board at the very least), BH's book value needs to likely take a hit from a declining market value for CBRL as management presides over operational and capital-allocation idiocy. Best, Ragu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Indeed. That was just plain silly. Although the conclusion is right, the write-up sorely lacks qualitative and quantitative rigour (sorry, Gio!). The unfortunate reality for BH shareholders is that for the right thing to happen at CBRL (Sardar on the board at the very least), BH's book value needs to likely take a hit from a declining market value for CBRL as management presides over operational and capital-allocation idiocy. Best, Ragu Hey! I am not the author of that piece… I just found interesting a sum of the parts analysis that got to a fair value of $675! ;) Why “unfortunate reality”?! The way I see it, this could become a great buying opportunity: a hit to BH’s BV, caused by nothing more than a decline in CBRL stock price, would certainly make BH’s stock price fall, but for no real nor worrisome reason… On the contrary, if such an event actually happens, with Mr. Biglari finally on the board, CBRL imo will be a stronger, not weaker, organization than before… So, what do we have here? A lower share price… for a stronger business?! Just great!! On the other hand, what might happen instead is that CBRL’s management goes on ignoring Mr. Biglari, while copying his strategies and implementing his business optimization advices. If this is the case, CBRL will create shareholders value and we will benefit from it. Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Just bought more today. :) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragu Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Hey! I am not the author of that piece… Gio, I know that you didn't write it. However, your posting of it w/o comment suggested an implicit endorsement. I should've stopped reading when Sardar was compared to Gordon Gekko (suggesting a lack of understanding of Milken, Icahn and Sardar all in one go). I just found interesting a sum of the parts analysis that got to a fair value of $675! ;) Heh. An 18x multiple on earnings (however loosely based on "comps") is hardly justifiable. Ignore deferred taxes on the CBRL investment, and voila, you have your $675/share number. Why “unfortunate reality”?! The way I see it, this could become a great buying opportunity Oh, I agree. Some of us may have as much as we can afford to right now:-). Best, Ragu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 ragu, actually I endorsed the sum of the parts analysis… that’s it! I was not really interested in any other part of the article… surely couldn’t care less about the comparison to Gordon Gekko!! ;) On the other hand, if you think the sum of the parts analysis is flawed, then I agree: the article has close to no merit… But I wouldn’t be so sure… Given its size, growth prospects, Mr. Sardar’s entrepreneurial abilities and young age, BH’s fair value imo is close to 2xBV… which is not far from the figure presented in the article. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragu Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 [..]BH’s fair value imo is close to 2xBV… which is not far from the figure presented in the article. With so much of BH's value tied to Sardar's ability, I doubt we are going to see a market price of 2xBV anytime soon. Not until someone has special insight into Sardar's longevity and figures that BV/share is going to compound at at least 15%/annum for the foreseeable future:-). As for the article, the writer has done some homework. The factual inaccuracies (SEC forced Sardar to revise hurdle rate on the original incentive agreement?!), the unreasonable multiple on restaurant earnings, the ignoring of deferred taxes on the CBRL position all undermine that homework though. Best, Ragu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 With so much of BH's value tied to Sardar's ability, I doubt we are going to see a market price of 2xBV anytime soon. Not until someone has special insight into Sardar's longevity and figures that BV/share is going to compound at at least 15%/annum for the foreseeable future:-). By a very simple discounted value of equity calculation (with a 9% discount rate) it takes only 13 years of compounding BV at 15% annual, to get to a present value of equity of 2xBV0 (BV0 = BV today). After that BH could close doors… Not very likely, right? Most of all because by then Mr. Biglari will be only 50! :) 15% compounded annual, with the mix of very safe operating earnings and very good investing capabilities he has engineered, is imo decidedly achievable. ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragu Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 15% compounded annual, with the mix of very safe operating earnings and very good investing capabilities he has engineered, is imo decidedly achievable. ;) Agreed. However, I'd be (very) disappointed if that's all Sardar managed over that time-frame. If Rafa Benitez (former Liverpool manager) were talking about Sardar, I'd suspect he'd say: The possibilities, they are intriguing, no? Best, Ragu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 If Rafa Benitez (former Liverpool manager) were talking about Sardar, I'd suspect he'd say: The possibilities, they are intriguing, no? +1! ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/biglari-holdings-inc-news-release-200900561.html?.tsrc=applewf Results are out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 http://instagram.com/p/pFgyXcoNZ9/ It will be fun to watch what Biglari does with the Maxim brand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Ragu/Gio, where do you put the valuation of BH? The Company’s proportionate share of Company stock held by investment partnerships at cost is $64,803 and $54,613 at April 9, 2014 and September 25, 2013, respectively, and is recorded as treasury stock. --page 8 Therefore, true BV should be: $64.8 + $543.8 = $608.6 million. I don’t want to put a precise number on fv, but let’s just say I won’t be worried about valuation until BH sells for 2xBV: 2 x $608.6 = $1,217.2 million. As of yesterday BH market cap was $765.57 million. Ragu? Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Ragu/Gio, where do you put the valuation of BH? The Company’s proportionate share of Company stock held by investment partnerships at cost is $64,803 and $54,613 at April 9, 2014 and September 25, 2013, respectively, and is recorded as treasury stock. --page 8 Therefore, true BV should be: $64.8 + $543.8 = $608.6 million. I don’t want to put a precise number on fv, but let’s just say I won’t be worried about valuation until BH sells for 2xBV: 2 x $608.6 = $1,217.2 million. As of yesterday BH market cap was $765.57 million. Ragu? Gio Can you explain why you use 2xBV here while BRK buys back stock below 1.2xBV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Can you explain why you use 2xBV here while BRK buys back stock below 1.2xBV? Well, that’s just math… Compound BV at 20% annual for just 8 years, and you get to 4.3 times initial BV. Then use a discount rate of 10%, and you get to a present value of equity that is 2x today’s BV. By this calculation BH could close doors 9 years from now, and still be worth 2x BV. But I know no one here likes math… and for good reasons… it is very easy to deceive ourselves using math… Accordingly, I would say this: I sell a great business, only if it gets extremely overvalued. I don’t really think BH will ever trade at 2x BV, therefore this is basically a journey I am willing to make alongside Mr. Biglari… Wrong partner? Lots of people would say absolutely yes! I, on the contrary, have great respect for what he has achieved till now. Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragu Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Ragu? With BH over the next decade, the bulk of the value is going to accrue from growth in book value on a per share basis rather than on an expansion in the price/book multiple. So, I find it easier to think in terms of the possibilities in growth in book value on a per share basis. IMO, assuming Sardar stays in control, CAGR in BVPS over the next decade: 15%: Very highly likely 20%: Probable 30%: Unlikely? Perhaps, but it's a non-trivial chance nonetheless. Best, Ragu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I suppose there is synergy between Steak N Shake and Maxim http://www.maxim.com/gallery/maxim-parties/106961 How can I get into the next Maxim event...sheesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I suppose there is synergy between Steak N Shake and Maxim http://www.maxim.com/gallery/maxim-parties/106961 How can I get into the next Maxim event...sheesh! Looks good to me too. If they provide tickets to shareholders, I will buy a few shares too. Where is Mr. Big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 http://www.ibj.com/property-lines-2014-06-12-biglari-name-becomes-part-of-downtown-landscape/PARAMS/post/48088#.U5zjx4m9LCS Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Fu*k me! Sorry, that's the only thing that could come out of my mouth after reading and seeing that. ;D For you board members who think this has something to do with my past history, please read the comments that people left after that article and come to your own conclusion. If you think that it's still me, you are delusional! Insane! Owns less than 10% of the company and names a landmark, historic building after himself! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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