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BH - Biglari Holdings


accutronman

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Let's not kid ourselves here, Mr. Biglari knows a good opportunity when he sees one.  He's probably giving some of these Maxim girls the Sardar Schlonging.  Not to be confused with the great Schlonging of 2016 on the BAC thread.

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"Potentially ‘embarrassing’ court document sealed in Biglari case"-San Antonio Express-News

 

http://www.expressnews.com/business/local/article/Potentially-embarrassing-court-document-7218359.php

 

Not to side with Biglari, but that's one sensationalistic headline with really zero content...possibly libelous content as portrayed by the paper.  Maybe news day is slow in San Antonio!  Cheers!

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http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93859/000092189516003910/form10ka107428007_03302016.htm

 

New 10k/A is out and reveals recent performance for The Lion Funds over the last 3 years.

 

Here is the performance of Lion Fund II from the report.  No surprises since you can count the holdings on two fingers.

 

2015                        2014                                2013

(13.59)% 40.21 % 30.87 %

 

-------------

 

 

Sure looks bad but to be fair they are all Netjets fractional interests in flight hours.  You can tell from the tail numbers ending in "QS", as well as Biglari's prior comments on the matter.  They don't add up to a single whole plane but it also isn't the same as Costco execs flying coach.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I attended about 2 hours of the meeting as I was in NYC anyways with time to kill and have a couple of notes to share. My notes could have errors(sorry) and I left early so I missed a couple hours of questions I am guessing.

 

The meeting started with Biglari showing some slides on how dire  Steak-n-Shake's situation was in 2008-2009 and how he was responsible for saving them from bankruptcy.

 

He stated BH's involvement forced CBRL to make changes and to slow down the opening of new stores.

 

Phil and Sardar are entrepreneur's FIRST, and investors SECOND

 

Minimum time frame to judge them is 10 years. Kind of hinted that he thinks BH is undervalued and said they will do thinks to maybe help value and price converge(said to look at pages 615-616 in 3rd edition of Graham and Dodd for reference. He thinks they will make good money on the previous tender at $420.

 

Long-term shareholder should welcome price decline. We need control to implement our strategy.

 

Has taken more ideas from Sam Walton than any other business leader. He is not trying to be the next Berkshire.

 

1st Guard is doing outstanding, a niche within a niche, Ed is an outstanding partner. Should do 20 million in 2016.

 

7 international Steak N Shake units opening in next couple of months

 

Maxim-expect expenses to go down 50% and revenue up substantially. They licensed their parties so take no risk and get revenue(Super Bowl party).

 

Felt if Swenson was removed from AIRT and ISIG that value would go up

 

 

 

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Funny that minimum period to judge the performance is 10 yrs now that the time duration on the prior 5 yrs is up. Why not 15 one wonders.

Maybe he's taking a page out of the european playbook. 

"Extend and pretend".

Someone diving into heriocs of yesteryear ie 2008/9 is a sure sign of non performance in the present. That would be passabl, except that he shifted a lot of shareholder money with his shenenigans.

I don't get a good vibe from him and his performance over the last 5 yrs is highly mediocre.

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Felt if Swenson was removed from AIRT and ISIG that value would go up

 

Heres Exhibit A of what I mean. The fact he can make this comment with a straight face is incredible. When Swenson joined AIRT ebitda was around $3.2m and the stock price was $10ish. Today AIRT ebitda is $8m and the stock sits at $24. When he joined ISIG ebitda was around $1.6m and the stock was around $3. Today ISIG is doing $3.6m ebitda and the stock sits at $3ish. When he joined PDEX ebitda was around (2m)  and the stock was around $2. Today PDEX has done $600k ebitda ttm (forward runrate is probably $3m-ish)  and the stock trades around $3.50. Its actually quite clear to me that Swenson's presence is actually one of the primary reasons these companies have seen such significant value creation over the last couple years. If he just came out and said "yeah, i'm out for revenge" then its like ok whatever but the fact he just straight face lies about his intentions when its so obvious what the truth is i don't know how anyone can trust a single thing he says.

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1st Guard is doing outstanding, a niche within a niche, Ed is an outstanding partner. Should do 20 million in 2016.

 

Maxim-expect expenses to go down 50% and revenue up substantially. They licensed their parties so take no risk and get revenue(Super Bowl party).

 

 

This was a nice synopsis Oracle. One clarification:

 

My understanding is that Biglari noted that Maxim revs would also be down somewhat, NOT up. However, the drop in expenses would lower the loss substantially in 2016.

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From my read of the Q&A, doesnt it seem the next course of business for Biglari is to remove the 10mm bonus cap then shut down the Lion Fund as BH will serve as the same vehicle?

 

====================

 

Q: Unknown- If you removed the pay cap would it make the Lion Fund and holding company the same?

o  Yes, they would be at parity

 

 

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From my read of the Q&A, doesnt it seem the next course of business for Biglari is to remove the 10mm bonus cap then shut down the Lion Fund as BH will serve as the same vehicle?

 

====================

 

Q: Unknown- If you removed the pay cap would it make the Lion Fund and holding company the same?

o  Yes, they would be at parity

 

He's going to remove the cap, but I don't think he will close the Lion Fund as there are probably some benefits to the two entities being separate.

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So BH owns 20% of crackerbarrel which is equal to 700m.

 

Total mkt cap of BH is 772M.

 

So we bascially get SNS, Maxim and First Guard for 72M.

 

Seems insanely cheap  despite how shady Biglari is.

 

Can't seem to make up my mind on him....

 

This stock is just looking super cheap but corporate governace is a big issue.

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So BH owns 20% of crackerbarrel which is equal to 700m.

 

Total mkt cap of BH is 772M.

 

So we bascially get SNS, Maxim and First Guard for 72M.

 

Seems insanely cheap  despite how shady Biglari is.

 

Can't seem to make up my mind on him....

 

This stock is just looking super cheap but corporate governace is a big issue.

 

Don't forget to deduct taxes for the gains on Cracker Barrel and debt under SNS.  Cheers!

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So BH owns 20% of crackerbarrel which is equal to 700m.

 

Total mkt cap of BH is 772M.

 

So we bascially get SNS, Maxim and First Guard for 72M.

 

Seems insanely cheap  despite how shady Biglari is.

 

Can't seem to make up my mind on him....

 

This stock is just looking super cheap but corporate governace is a big issue.

 

Don't forget to deduct taxes for the gains on Cracker Barrel and debt under SNS.  Cheers!

 

Also, all your cash is in the Lion Fund so if you think he can do 15% returns/yr make sure you take out 25% performance fee over the hurdle rate and tax those proceeds at the corporate tax rate of 35% for SNS shareholders. Also, he's probably always thinking of new ways to screw shareholders so thats some negative optionality you need to account for as well.

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