Ballinvarosig Investors Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I don't know if anyone has noticed, but recently it has become a lot harder to find mispriced large caps (which actually turn out to be mispriced) than nanocaps or microcaps. This is because the systems or bots often operate above certain liquidity thresholds. I have to say, I do not agree with you on this point. Over the last five years, we have had the S&P500 Index trading between an all-time high of 1,576 and and a historic low of 666. The S&P500 as you know accounts for the most liquid and most traded stocks in the entire world, it is the mainstay of the quantitative universe. If the quant systems were as good as you're saying, then they should have absolutely cleaned up in such a volatile market. So, my conclusion, which I have stated before, is that the rational discretionary value investor should be looking for securities which are ignored, rather than controversial situations such as BP during their crisis, which they may believe to be misunderstood. Forgive my ignorance, but is that not a contradiction in your argument? Your quantitative system is basically only good for the data that you have available. If you're talking about the best opportunities being found in the nano-cap/micro-cap universe, surely these results will not even be evaluated by the system, afterall, a lot of these guys will not be on Yahoo/Fidelity/CapitalIQ/etc.? I know from personal experience, that if you wanted your system to cover the entire universe of illiquid and neglected stocks, you would need a sizeable team of folks searching under rocks for new listings and transferring the hardcopy/pdf data from existing listings into your dataset. Even if I devoted all my time, I simply could not keep up with this, so inevitably, there are bargains slipping through my fingers every day. As a matter of interest, am I the only person that maintains a personal database of statistical information on stocks not maintained on the usual channels? Since the universe of securities is simply too large for any one person, I have always wondered if you could simply split the work load with a group of like-minded individuals, sharing the information with each other. Imagine having an informational edge over just about everyone in the entire world? That would be something ;D Also on the point of the micro/nano-cap universe, it's easy to say the best priced bargains reside in this domain, but the reality of finding them is really, really hard. If you were in this area in 2007 (i.e. like Paul Sonkin or the Westwood Mighty Mites fund to name but two), you would have sustained appalling losses. Harry and Parsad, you will both be well aware of just how difficult it is working in this area from your experience with FMMH and ITEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Everyone can relax. I'm here now. I just got back from the hardware store and bought us a ruler. It's 4 inches, but I think we can fold it in half and start measuring. laugh out f'n loud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Harry, I hope nobody from this board followed you into MNTG. You LOVE mentioning your winners. You are a smart guy. How about starting a thread about your losers. It would probably be more instructive. Also, out of curiousity, if your computer "systems" are that effective, what do you actually bring to the table as someone running a portfolio? shh, don't mention MNTG! he deleted that thread! also, i'm sure any day now management is going to increase their hold and the millions if not billions will pour in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Given, be careful what you're saying, because you'll be working for Harry one day. ;D Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Given, be careful what you're saying, because you'll be working for Harry one day. ;D Cheers! Hey, if he pays well and promises to teach me all of life's secrets I'd be pretty interested in that! :D Especially after the beating I've taken the last month... ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 "I don't know if anyone has noticed, but recently it has become a lot harder to find mispriced large caps (which actually turn out to be mispriced) than nanocaps or microcaps. This is because the systems or bots often operate above certain liquidity thresholds." I think it has always been the case, anyway since I started investing or about 15 years ago. There is simply more people involved in the big caps weather bots or not due to their large liquidity. They also generally grow much more slowly than the smaller outfits. Because of this lack of attention and larger growth, I have always found double and mutliple baggers in the small cap area. I could only find typically 50% upside in big caps. Here I am excluding periods of excessive stress, where some big caps can offer more, but so too can small caps with double turning into triple, etc. There is a caveat however. Even if you are alone studying the company, there is a higher chance for these firms to go belly up than for the big ones. So the triple or quadrulple more than made up for those who I thought were good investments, but ended up flat for years or down for the count. IMO, I am not sure what a robot would do more for me. It would be programmed like I am and would then suffer from the same flaws. Looking at the market now, it sure looks as stupid as it did in 1999/2000 when it was dramatically overvalued. I am kind of hoping to see the bots overvalue the market in the not too distant future. :) Another question on the topic. When do you re-program the bot to adjust for new elements or data points? It seems to me that once you disrupt the program that you effectively kill the systematic approach since humans are now messing up with the bot's brain introducing higher weights on this and that at possibly moments of fear and greed. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Harry, I hope nobody from this board followed you into MNTG. You LOVE mentioning your winners. You are a smart guy. How about starting a thread about your losers. It would probably be more instructive. Also, out of curiousity, if your computer "systems" are that effective, what do you actually bring to the table as someone running a portfolio? shh, don't mention MNTG! he deleted that thread! also, i'm sure any day now management is going to increase their hold and the millions if not billions will pour in! No question, it was a bumpy ride. The stock has come back to about where it was. I've been pretty open about my Google short working out. I try to take my lumps quickly, rather than holding on and hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Of course, I meant the Google short not working out :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Of course, I meant the Google short not working out :( Very nice performance by MNTG. Guess Dorsia was hard on me a little too early. It's done very nicely compared to BAC as well. Goes back to my point that it's better to find things that are neglected, than larger situations which are in the midst of controversy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Of course, I meant the Google short not working out :( Very nice performance by MNTG. Guess Dorsia was hard on me a little too early. It's done very nicely compared to BAC as well. Goes back to my point that it's better to find things that are neglected, than larger situations which are in the midst of controversy. Stop the rhetoric Harry! How did the shorts work out and have you actually provided results to anyone who has asked? This has become farcical and that is why no one responds except for me. I love a good comedy! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I guess in your world, people who disagree with you are farcical. I always get a lot out of being exposed to, and seeking to understand, principled disagreement. Thanks for your kind feedback on my ideas :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 SURW didn't do too badly either. Was the takeover farcical as well? I've enjoyed following your performance in BAC. You did a good job, I give you credit for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I love the continuation of a thread that has been inactive for six months as if anyone cares hahahahh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorsia1 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Harry, could you please repost your thesis for MNTG that you took down? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onyx1 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Harry, could you please repost your thesis for MNTG that you took down? Thanks Dorsia, You can find it here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/268689-mtr-gaming-group-the-money-lever-to-pull-in-this-casino-is-the-hold-percentage But make sure you see the fourth comment (from last May) where Harry exits the position! Priceless!! "I am personally unhappy reading the 10-Q that the cash flow isn't as strong as I would have expected.. I have to move on if the cash flow isn't there. Apologies to my kind readers. I truly believed the cash flow would be stronger. I will revisit this in the coming quarters to see if things change." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorsia1 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Thanks for this onyx1. What a joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I guess in your world, people who disagree with you are farcical. I always get a lot out of being exposed to, and seeking to understand, principled disagreement. Thanks for your kind feedback on my ideas :) Harry, you are one of those people where everyone wants to like you, but you're your own worst enemy. If you stop lobbing grenades at boardmembers everytime one of your ideas does well, and actually stick to your analysis which I think many find useful and interesting, you would find a more genial response...including from yours truly! You are smart and the boardmembers can learn alot from you, but you could learn a hell of lot more from the people on here. Trust me...I'm right on this...no matter what you may want to think or your ego is encouraging you to believe! Take a leap of faith and trust me, and you'll find that people will truly appreciate what you have to offer. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I see Harry is back for his every few month gloat about a 0.5% position that did well. No mention as usual about the rest of the 99.5% of the portfolio, but we are supposed to bow down to the genius that is Harry. Truly this is like a baseball team acting like they've won the world series and shouting "We're #1!!" after a win in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECCO Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Some here should read this classic: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Win_Friends_and_Influence_People That might be one of the best move you could do in your life to read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ_Value Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Harry, could you please repost your thesis for MNTG that you took down? Thanks Dorsia, You can find it here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/268689-mtr-gaming-group-the-money-lever-to-pull-in-this-casino-is-the-hold-percentage But make sure you see the fourth comment (from last May) where Harry exits the position! Priceless!! "I am personally unhappy reading the 10-Q that the cash flow isn't as strong as I would have expected.. I have to move on if the cash flow isn't there. Apologies to my kind readers. I truly believed the cash flow would be stronger. I will revisit this in the coming quarters to see if things change." Wait a minute... What am I missing here? The thesis seems to have been posted on May 9, 2011 on SA and the comment above where he expresses his disappointment and "exits" the position was posted on May 11,2011 I gotta be missing something right? Please tell me I'm missing something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Did the hold percentage increase like he thought or did the price rise for other reasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Harry, could you please repost your thesis for MNTG that you took down? Thanks Dorsia, You can find it here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/268689-mtr-gaming-group-the-money-lever-to-pull-in-this-casino-is-the-hold-percentage But make sure you see the fourth comment (from last May) where Harry exits the position! Priceless!! "I am personally unhappy reading the 10-Q that the cash flow isn't as strong as I would have expected.. I have to move on if the cash flow isn't there. Apologies to my kind readers. I truly believed the cash flow would be stronger. I will revisit this in the coming quarters to see if things change." Wait a minute... What am I missing here? The thesis seems to have been posted on May 9, 2011 on SA and the comment above where he expresses his disappointment and "exits" the position was posted on May 11,2011 I gotta be missing something right? Please tell me I'm missing something... He just says he was disappointed with the cash flows and would have to move on, but he would revisit it over the next few quarters. So, no confirmation if he ACTUALLY exited. Apparently he didn't because he's gloating about his idea on here today. But we'll never know because he will not provide his returns. It's a cliff-hanger! Stay tuned. Same bat time, same bat channel! ;D Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorsia1 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Did the hold percentage increase like he thought or did the price rise for other reasons? I can't find the hold percentage but it appears to me that the revenues were up due to an increased marketing expense to draw more players and unseasonably warm weather. The lower hold in slots is a draw for customers. the casinos actually advertise their high payout ratios. I submit that Harry, while he is a smart individual (just ask him), knows next to nothing about gaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Rather than getting drawn into unproductive bickering, I will reiterate my goals for this interaction: I. Getting across the notion that it is better to go after companies which suffer from neglect rather than controversy. II. Continuous improvement through improved methods (Kaizen) I'm proudest of our work on FMMH and SURW, where we were able to make a strong grassroot effort to improve the handshake that shareholders got at both companies. In terms of effectiveness, I think it compares very favorably to efforts made with ITEX, etc, and it was with companies that are considerably larger than ITEX. When people don't have rational arguments, they stoop to making personal attacks. If you disagree with something I say, just say "I disagree and here's why..." I think that will make the best impact, not only on this board, but also in advocating for positive change in other areas of life. But don't take my word for it, look at the results of our advocacy, which came from a very solid process. I get thank you notes all the time from shareholders who thank me for the work we did on FMMH and SURW. So, I would respectfully submit, that if you want to be more effective in advocating for positive change, that admirable goals should be matched with a style which is objective, non-emotional, and respectful. But if you want to keep calling people names, that's your prerogative. I just think it's bad energy, it's unprofessional, and it won't help you accomplish your goals--which is sad, because your goals are admirable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Rather than getting drawn into unproductive bickering, I will reiterate my goals for this interaction: I. Getting across the notion that it is better to go after companies which suffer from neglect rather than controversy. II. Continuous improvement through improved methods (Kaizen) I'm proudest of our work on FMMH and SURW, where we were able to make a strong grassroot effort to improve the handshake that shareholders got at both companies. In terms of effectiveness, I think it compares very favorably to efforts made with ITEX, etc, and it was with companies that are considerably larger than ITEX. When people don't have rational arguments, they stoop to making personal attacks. If you disagree with something I say, just say "I disagree and here's why..." I think that will make the best impact, not only on this board, but also in advocating for positive change in other areas of life. But don't take my word for it, look at the results of our advocacy, which came from a very solid process. I get thank you notes all the time from shareholders who thank me for the work we did on FMMH and SURW. So, I would respectfully submit, that if you want to be more effective in advocating for positive change, that admirable goals should be matched with a style which is objective, non-emotional, and respectful. But if you want to keep calling people names, that's your prerogative. I just think it's bad energy, it's unprofessional, and it won't help you accomplish your goals--which is sad, because your goals are admirable. He,he...Harry you're so funny! Thanks I needed that. I think everyone on this board needed that today! See you can contribute in positive ways that give all of us a good laugh. Way to go buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts