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CBRL - Cracker Barrel


Hershey

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I think it is fairly valued at this price.  [...]Thoughts? 

 

As you undoubtedly know, Sardar has continued to buy CBRL stock (16% of the company now) after his failed bid to get on the board. I didn't expect that he'd back down after he lost, but I'll admit to being a little surprised with how aggressive he has been with his purchases. Highest reported purchase price was $53.45. Today's price is about 5.4% higher.

 

As for what Sardar thinks about CBRL's valuation and the possibilities that a control investment provides, a look at his most recent BH shareholder letter provides more than just a hint (pg.3):

 

If a company’s intrinsic value is $1 billion and the market value is $500 million, then a

buyer is purchasing dollar bills for 50 cents. As a consequence, and assuming the p/v converges

over a five-year period, the investor will profit at a rate of 15% per annum.

 

Our divergence from most investors is illustrated by their settling for the status quo

whereas we purchase with an option: taking action to improve the productivity of the target’s

corporate assets. Thus, once we have assumed a position of influence by becoming active

members of the board, let’s presume that we can help turn $1 in intrinsic value into $2. That

jump in value would indicate that our return over 5 years would not be 15% but 32% per year.

 

Disclosure: No direct position in CBRL.

 

Best,

Ragu

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I am not surprised by his continued purchase. I expect that he will continue to purchase until 20% threshold & possibly be another round of trial getting into the board. Obviously the company has lot of assets(Real Estate), increased capital expenses every year does not increase the sales/profits proportionately. I would assume he would be inclined to stop the incremental cap expenditures & return the excess cash to shareholders via dividend/share repurchases based on the then stock price.

 

How much would you pay for a controlling stake in a company with following characteristics?

 

Average Cash flow in last 10 years is 190M

Average depreciation expense for last 10 years is 60M

Debt is around 550M

Total Average Assets Employed is 1.2B.

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I am not surprised by his continued purchase. I expect that he will continue to purchase until 20% threshold & possibly be another round of trial getting into the board. Obviously the company has lot of assets(Real Estate), increased capital expenses every year does not increase the sales/profits proportionately. I would assume he would be inclined to stop the incremental cap expenditures & return the excess cash to shareholders via dividend/share repurchases based on the then stock price.

 

 

It would be more interesting if Biglari achieves insider status and does NOT push for reduced capital spending. Management doesn't share the reasoning for the retail/restaurant split, but there must be some internal research to justify square footage allocations.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cracker-barrel-reports-fourth-quarter-120000030.html

 

The Company announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Lawrence E. Hyatt, plans to retire at the end of the 2016 fiscal year. Hyatt, who turns 61 next month, has been CFO since January 2011. He will participate in the search for his successor, and will assist with the transition.

 

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What is a biscuit house? I've lived in the south my entire life and have never heard of it. Is it like a diner? Meat and three?

 

Cracker Barrel tried a fast casual thing once before back in the mid 90s. They had a few concept restaurants in the Nashville area. Think kind of a spin on a Boston Market. Wikipedia says it was take out only, but I remember eating at the store quite a bit.

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