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Liberty

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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I'm now about 2/3 through the Singleton episode, and I must say that if they're all of this quality, I would consider subscribing, especially if I can grow my portfolio enough to become a full-time or part-timer investor. Probably too expensive for me now, but if I had more money and was doing this for a living, this seems like a valuable resources that could pay for itself.

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NormR Newbie

NormR

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Probably too expensive for me now, but if I had more money and was doing this for a living, this seems like a valuable resources that could pay for itself.

 

They obviously don't see you as a customer yet.  ;)

 

But keep in mind that many people seem to be content to pay 2.5%/yr for an investment advisor.  (At least in Canada.)  2.5% on a $50,000 portfolio is $1,250.  The % fee quickly scales down for larger portfolios.  $1.2k/$100k= 1.2%, $1.2k/$500k = 0.24%.  So, not unreasonable for moderately sized portfolios when compared to fund fees.   

 

(I only having a passing familiarity with the site.  So I can't comment on the value provided for the money.  But I've seen a few good things from them.)

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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They obviously don't see you as a customer yet.  ;)

 

But keep in mind that many people seem to be content to pay 2.5%/yr for an investment advisor.  (At least in Canada.)  2.5% on a $50,000 portfolio is $1,250.  The % fee quickly scales down for larger portfolios.  $1.2k/$100k= 1.2%, $1.2k/$500k = 0.24%.  So, not unreasonable for moderately sized portfolios when compared to fund fees.   

 

(I only having a passing familiarity with the site.  So I can't comment on the value provided for the money.  But I've seen a few good things from them.)

 

Actually, it probably would pay for itself now - my portfolio is many multiples of 50k - but like many other value investors, it takes a lot to make me open my wallet (especially when the public library and internet contain so many free resources). I'll check out a few of the other free samples, and that might convince me to take the jump, or at least put it on the list of stuff I want to buy someday...

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manualofideas Newbie

manualofideas

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Hi, we are huge fans of this forum and would definitely offer a special subscription rate to the board members.  However, we're aware of the non-commercial policy and don't want to do anything that Sanjeev doesn't approve.  Sanjeev, if it's okay with you, we will post a discount here.  If not, no problem.  Thanks and keep up the great work!

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BargainValueHunter Newbie

BargainValueHunter

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Hi...another fan here.

 

How would you compare your letter to OID if at all?

 

(Aside from the fact that you publish on at least a semi-regular basis)  :)

 

Hi, we are huge fans of this forum and would definitely offer a special subscription rate to the board members.  However, we're aware of the non-commercial policy and don't want to do anything that Sanjeev doesn't approve.  Sanjeev, if it's okay with you, we will post a discount here.  If not, no problem.  Thanks and keep up the great work!

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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Hi MoI, thanks for the quick reply!

 

I have another question for you: I listened to the Henry Singleton podcast and loved it. Do you do much audio stuff, or is most of what you produced text? Are any of those podcasts also available on SeekingAlpha (where I found the Henry Singleton one)? Thanks!

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ERICOPOLY Newbie

ERICOPOLY

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I just finished reading the Oct 29th 2010 issue (free link).

 

Using the closing stock price of BAC on the day the issue was published ($11.45), and the stated valuation of BAC in the publication 6.7x normalized.  I guess the author came to the conclusion that BAC will earn $1.70 per share in a normalized year.

 

Is there any chance the author can explain how only $1.70 is calculated to be the earnings power of BAC in a normalized year?  Berkowitz was this past week saying $3 is the earnings power.

 

 

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leftcoast Newbie

leftcoast

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I just finished reading the Oct 29th 2010 issue (free link).

 

Using the closing stock price of BAC on the day the issue was published ($11.45), and the stated valuation of BAC in the publication 6.7x normalized.  I guess the author came to the conclusion that BAC will earn $1.70 per share in a normalized year.

 

Is there any chance the author can explain how only $1.70 is calculated to be the earnings power of BAC in a normalized year?  Berkowitz was this past week saying $3 is the earnings power.

 

At the top of page 84, it appears that the base case for normalized earnings is calculated based on a 15% return on tangible common equity. Tangible common equity as of Sept 2010 is listed as $114 billion. So that gives a normalized net income of $17 billion, or $1.70 per share.

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twacowfca Newbie

twacowfca

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I just finished reading the Oct 29th 2010 issue (free link).

 

Using the closing stock price of BAC on the day the issue was published ($11.45), and the stated valuation of BAC in the publication 6.7x normalized.  I guess the author came to the conclusion that BAC will earn $1.70 per share in a normalized year.

 

Is there any chance the author can explain how only $1.70 is calculated to be the earnings power of BAC in a normalized year?  Berkowitz was this past week saying $3 is the earnings power.

 

At the top of page 84, it appears that the base case for normalized earnings is calculated based on a 15% return on tangible common equity. Tangible common equity as of Sept 2010 is listed as $114 billion. So that gives a normalized net income of $17 billion, or $1.70 per share.

 

We bought a ton of BAC in March, 09 a little above the bottom and sold it a few months later for more than a double.  Our back of the envelope calculations then were something close to the value above or a little higher.  However, we may be approaching a time when their spreads are squeezed.  Therefore, it may be sometime before their IV is reflected in the market.  Their stock looks interesting for patient value investors.  :)

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FFHWatcher Newbie

FFHWatcher

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I am a happy MOI customer.  Don't just look at it as investment ideas.  Look at it as an educational tool.  Cheaper than a University finance course.  You will become a better investor reading their reports.  Do some of their ideas fail? Of course, that is investing.  Their analysis is extremely thorough and it is up to the investor/reader to continue with their own analysis and then decide if they invest and decide how to accumulate, how much weighting, etc. 

$1,200 subscription price...who's portfolio here doesn't move that much in a day or even an hour?  The value is there, imo.  If i were him, i wouldn't discount the service... :-)

Extremely professional organization with a high level of customer service standards.  I screwed up when i placed my order and their response to my error far exceeded my expectations.  They absorbed my error =  Expensive service but they aren't greedy.

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ERICOPOLY Newbie

ERICOPOLY

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I just finished reading the Oct 29th 2010 issue (free link).

 

Using the closing stock price of BAC on the day the issue was published ($11.45), and the stated valuation of BAC in the publication 6.7x normalized.  I guess the author came to the conclusion that BAC will earn $1.70 per share in a normalized year.

 

Is there any chance the author can explain how only $1.70 is calculated to be the earnings power of BAC in a normalized year?  Berkowitz was this past week saying $3 is the earnings power.

 

At the top of page 84, it appears that the base case for normalized earnings is calculated based on a 15% return on tangible common equity. Tangible common equity as of Sept 2010 is listed as $114 billion. So that gives a normalized net income of $17 billion, or $1.70 per share.

 

We bought a ton of BAC in March, 09 a little above the bottom and sold it a few months later for more than a double.  Our back of the envelope calculations then were something close to the value above or a little higher.  However, we may be approaching a time when their spreads are squeezed.  Therefore, it may be sometime before their IV is reflected in the market.  Their stock looks interesting for patient value investors.  :)

 

Yeah, I don't know about such methods of valuation.  I'm looking at page 8 of their presentation from 9/12/11:

http://investor.bankofamerica.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=71595&p=irol-presentations

 

They made $10b in the first 6 months of 2011 if you ignore their real estate problems.  That's $2 annualized per share earnings.  So in a year when they make money in real estate?  It ought to be more than $2 I reckon.

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