Jump to content

HPQ - Hewlett-Packard Company


bmichaud

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 151
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Whitman appears to be doing all the right things, and people are starting to believe that she's actually going to right the ship. 

 

Perhaps the most surprising thing this quarter was the growth in PSG unit shipments.  While profit per unit will continue to decline fairly rapidly for all hardware, we might start to see PSG profit decline slow down substantially and maybe even stabilize at some point, especially if HP can get some traction with their "mobile" devices.  I really like their "multi-OS, multi-architecture, multi-form factor strategy," which is quite different from a DELL or NOK, who decided to align themselves strongly with MSFT.  If that happens, all that free cash can be plowed back into their growth businesses.

 

Their converged infrastructure strategy also appears to be paying dividends, showing up in their EG server, networking, and storage sales, which have grown YoY.  Hopefully, HP will also acquire some IaaS/PaaS expertise so that they can really start working on building out a competitive public cloud solution.  That will really allow them to cover all bases, though Whitman does appear to be wary of relying too much on "transactional-only" businesses.  Whitman really does give the impression that they've really thoroughly thought about how the market is evolving.

 

The Printers group also continues to do some very interesting stuff in terms of transforming the biz model and looking at adjacent opportunities.

 

A very encouraging quarter, all in all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest wellmont

growth businesses? they report 6 segments. 5 have declining revenue YoY. 1 has increasing revenue YoY. It grew 2%. Btw this segment is part of the business that has Druckenmiller so bearish about ibm. This is still a company stuck in the mud with lots of mediocre businesses, some in secular decline. Operating margins are 6%. This is a 10 multiple business at most unless they do some financial engineering. they have big problems in enterprise services, PC, and software.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

growth businesses? they report 6 segments. 5 have declining revenue YoY. 1 has increasing revenue YoY. It grew 2%. Btw this segment is part of the business that has Druckenmiller so bearish about ibm. This is still a company stuck in the mud with lots of mediocre businesses, some in secular decline. Operating margins are 6%. This is a 10 multiple business at most unless they do some financial engineering. they have big problems in enterprise services, PC, and software.

 

There absolutely are growth businesses in there if you look at their business lines (not just their operating segments).  Druckenmiller thesis is a short term one, similar to the bear thesis on DELL.

 

The question is whether HP is able to successfully institute a culture of transformation a la IBM.  At the moment, we see mostly cost reduction, but we do see signs of a transformation culture emerging.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest wellmont

yes they do have some small growth businesses. unfortunately they don't move the needle very much because they have declining businesses that act as a counterweight. 5 out of 6 segments are declining. 1 is growing at 2%. big picture: it's stuck in the muck. I expect hpq to start acquiring "trendy" businesses like "public cloud" because that's the only way they will grow. unfortunately we all know what happens when HP starts buying things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yes they do have some small growth businesses. unfortunately they don't move the needle very much because they have declining businesses that act as a counterweight. 5 out of 6 segments are declining. 1 is growing at 2%. big picture: it's stuck in the muck. I expect hpq to start acquiring "trendy" businesses like "public cloud" because that's the only way they will grow. unfortunately we all know what happens when HP starts buying things.

 

Read the CC.  You'll see what I'm talking about wrt growth businesses, which you don't really get a sense of by looking at their operating segment numbers. 

 

In many respects, people like Druckenmiller are really hoping that investors don't dig deeper than looking solely at the segmentation.  It's exactly the same approach that short-termers have with MSFT or AMZN.  I

 

You're right about past HP acquisitions.  That's why Whitman being in charge makes a huge difference. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest wellmont

I don't listen to management on cc unless they are Owner Operators with a great paper trail. :)

management didn't buy stock with their own money. they were given stock by the other shareholders. hpq is not going to get the best people. they are going to acquire them at a big premium. would love to see them break up this company into 3 pieces and let entrepreneurs run them. not going to happen because HP is a "valley institution".

 

Of course they are going to tout their growth businesses. I would expect nothing less from them. their numbers speak for themselves. the stock is up because expectations for this company are rock bottom.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't listen to management on cc unless they are Owner Operators with a great paper trail. :)

management didn't buy stock with their own money.

 

You don't have to believe management.  You can just read their responses to analyst questions.  There's really no excuse for not reading the CC -- otherwise, you're just making judgments on "the numbers" in a willfully blind manner. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

txlaw - are you long this? If so, what variables are you particularly paying attention to?

 

Yeah, I'm long HPQ.  And IBM, as well.

 

I'm paying attention to everything, really, when it comes to HP.  Financial metrics for each segment that indicate whether there will be revenue stabilization.  Product releases and strategy updates (they give pretty good technology updates to investors).  Labor force changes (mix of low cost versus high cost labor).  APAC growth (even amidst signs that those economies could have some pretty severe macro problems in the short to medium term).  Hints of whether these "acorns" they're trying to plant represent high growth businesses.  And so on.

 

This Meg Whitman statement pretty much sums it up:

Well this is a big company with a lot of moving parts and we've got declining businesses, we've got businesses that are about flat and we have our growth businesses. And the question of revenue growth is really going to be how fast can we grow those growth businesses that really pivot to what I call the new style of IT where technology is going and then can we slow the decline of some of our legacy businesses.

 

The good news is that they have a lot more breathing room now that they've gotten to  a net cash position.  They have been taking a lot of the right actions from a strategic perspective, IMO.  And they're very realistic about what needs to be changed about the company that is not so good (thanks to Meg Whitman).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

"http://www.scmagazine.com.au/News/368562,dell-others-named-in-nsa-spying-program.aspx"

 

"The best-selling servers of Dell are among a swathe of IT products released by US companies that have been compromised by the National Security Agency, information security enthusiasts were told at a conference overnight."

 

There's also HP in there, Huawei, CISCO etc.  some good short options...

 

Amazing slideshow: http://www.scmagazine.com.au/Gallery/368566,leaked-inside-the-nsas-hacking-catalogue.aspx/1

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
Guest wellmont

the cfo who did the DD on this acquisition is still there.

 

And she voiced strong objections to the acquisition at the time...

 

linky?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the cfo who did the DD on this acquisition is still there.

 

And she voiced strong objections to the acquisition at the time...

 

That's true.  That's why Lesjak is still there.

 

Now, wellmont seems to be saying that she should have found the fraud (if there was fraud) or done more DD in spite of Apotheker trying to push the deal through.  I wouldn't blame Lesjak for the disastrous Autonomy acquisition.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
  • 8 months later...

Worst thing...

 

Meg Whitman will be CEO of Enterprise and will be on the board of directors of Enterprise (not as bad as being the chairman)... But Meg will also be the Chainman of HP Ink. Thats a conflict of interest that looks like Enterprise could take resources from ink without impediment.

 

"I [Meg Whitman] will be President and Chief Executive Officer of Hewlett-Packard Enterprise and Cathie Lesjak will be Chief Financial Officer. At the close, Pat Russo will move from Lead Independent Director of HP to Chairman of Hewlett-Packard Enterprise. I will serve on the Board of Directors."

 

"Dion Weisler will lead HP Inc. as President and Chief Executive Officer. As many of you know, Dion is an experienced industry veteran and has done an excellent job of building our relationships with customers and channel partners, segmenting the market, and driving product innovation. I will take on the role of Chairman of the Board for HP Inc. "

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...